25 POINTS PROFIT FOR SEQUENCE-KING DAQMAN: Daqman made 25 points on the day at Betdaq offers yesterday with Brunton Blue (WON 5-1) and the gambled-on Favoured Nation (WON 11-8), though he would rather have continued his unbeaten naps sequence, which ended at seven in a row, as follows:
• Tuesday: RUN TO FLY (WON 15-8)
• Wednesday: CAMBORNE (WON 6-4)
• Thursday: IRISH FLAME (WON 5-1)
• Friday: GRANDS CRUS (WON 13-8)
• Saturday: HUNTER’S LIGHT (WON 8-11)
• Sunday: FINGAL BAY (WON 4-5)
* Monday NOTUS DE LA TOUR (WON 4-9)
10 LAYS IN A ROW: This follows a lays sequence of 10 successes on the trot in September-October. The moral is: follow Daqman every day, and get in on the START of those amazing runs of success.
DAQMAN LIBRARY: The two latest sequences are listed at the start of the Daqman Library, which is one of four choices on the Daqman button. Remember: follow Daqman every day for the START of his sequences.
What have these horses in common? Hope Point, Diamond Twister, Helpston, Ballyclough, Brunton Blue, The Darling Boy, Run To Fly, Favoured Nation.
Answer: They were all winners, tipped or mentioned by me in yesterday’s column, but they don’t count and the losing nap does.
What has Favoured Nation in common with most of the winning naps in a perfect week? Answer: he was much better odds (3.9) on Betdaq when I picked him for the column – as ‘too big’ at that price – than his SP of 11-8.
Make no mistake that, strive as I do to create sequences of wins and lays, and days and days of profit – and I’ve done all three in the last nine weeks – the most important criterion never varies: value.
Join my sequences by all means (or, better still, stick with me every day, and be in on the very start of each sequence) but your success, and mine, depends on lining up with the value.
Let’s keep looking together in the one place that the odds are genuine exchanges, not adjusted to fit a bookmaker’s profit scheme: Betdaq.
As ever, you will know the offers I took by dividing my target profit of 20 points for each horse backed by the stake listed in ‘Daqman’s Bets’ below.
If, for instance, I think an animal value at 5.0 (that’s 4-1), you will see my stake as ‘5pts win’. You only have to reverse those simple maths, and divide 20 by the stake (5) and you will know that it was 4-1 (5.0) when I picked it.
4.10 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Apprentice Classified Claiming Stakes): This is the third running: two 6-1 shots have taken it so far. George Baker, responsible for Encore Un Fois, is the trainer with best record in claimers on the course (2-3), though his overall Kempton strike rate is poor (Spade’s trainer Tim Pitt is on zero, 0-16).
Ice Cold Bex comes out top on the ratings, after runs in better company at Newmarket. Elfine has two ways of running – neither of them successful – and you could argue that Roman Flame is the most consistent (consistently bad) with form which includes seven placed efforts on the trot without winning. Not a race for value seekers.
4.40 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Handicap): Three-year-olds, who are of course just short of their fourth birthday, have a big edge at this time of year.
The low-to-middle draw is another advantage in a sprint at Kempton Park. In fact, the second-season trio in this are all reasonably drawn.
Claiming 7lb off Crew Cut is essential if he is to hold on to his superiority over Triple Dream and Wooden King.
A change of tactics, and drop back to a maiden from a class-3 handicap, got Nially Noo off the mark when he made all at Southwell; this lower-class ‘cap’ is a better target but he has to prove himself on the different surface.
Welsh Inlet has already acted on the Poly here but failed to last out when trying to make all in a three-runner race.
Sprint-king David Nicholls has lost his crown on the Flat but Six Wives goes well for an apprentice, holds class-4-placed Dancing Freddy on Leicester form in the summer and hasn’t been punished on her return to combat with two runs after a break.
The 10.5 on Betdaq this morning looked massive, despite her outside draw, with Absa Lutte, Estonia and Nially Noo unlikely to put back-to-back wins together (it’s rare at this level).
The danger may be Rocket Bob, who’s been dropped 15lb this year and will find this company more comfortable than the class-4 turf handicaps he attempted in the early autumn.
5.10 Kempton (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap): Three-year-olds have won in both years of this race’s history and Lucky Royale (9.0 as I write) looks well placed in stall 2 in her first handicap.
Instructress was a close third over CD in September but that looks a flash in the pan and the only Kempton winner in the field, Replicator, has never scored over the minimum; always 6f.
Brian Sprout is another I considered, down from Yorkshire, after some fair efforts recently, but trainer John Weymes is 0-10 on the course, the life of ‘Brian’ contains no winning form, and he is drawn 11.
5.40 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Claiming Stakes): What’s going to win this? Dr Livingstone, I presume. At his best, as a class-4 winner, he’s entitled to.
Foxhaven and Scamperdale have failed to score, dropped to claimers, but Balajo is a worry: he is an unknown quantity over here, after just one run in a class-2 at Ascot, but he has won on AW at Cagnes-sur-Mer.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.2pts win REBEL SWING and 2.5pts win ON GOSSAMER WINGS (2.40 Hexham)
BET 7.4pts win (nap) THE PRETENDER (3.00 Warwick)
BET 1.9pts win SIX WIVES and 0.5pts win (stakes saver) ROCKET BOB (4.40 Kempton)
BET 2.5pts win LUCKY ROYALE (5.10 Kempton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
