RISKIER THAN EVER BUT DAQMAN HITS THEM FOR SIX! The incredible Daqman has hit SIX successful lays in SIX days with all SIX placed without winning, five of them SP favourite. His killing yesterday was, appropriately, with Riskier (2nd 5-2 favourite). Here’s the full knife-edge sequence:
* Thur: R D’ARTAIX (3rd 2-1 favourite)
* Fri: SWING BILL (3rd 7-2 favourite)
* Sat: ARTHURIAN LEGEND (3rd 9-2)
* Sun: J BOYS OUTING (3rd 5-2 favourite)
* Mon: WHISPERING JACK (2nd 9-2)
* Tues: RISKIER (2nd 5-2 favourite)
Back the second favourite until it wins, then go home. That was my first encounter with ‘a system’ when my misspent youth on the racecourses had me learning my maths from a bookie’s joint instead of from the school blackboard.
The wag who told me that one will no doubt be following Charles Byrnes dual raid from Kilkenny to Wetherby today: he is likely to have second favourites with both Fists Of Fury (12.55) and Sea Of Thunder (1.30).
But what interests me about Sea Of Thunder is whether he’s good enough to topple the favourite, four-time winner Hazy Tom. You see, only the last win of his quartet was over hurdles and that only by a head, with the jockey pressing him to the line, a certain A P McCoy, who rides Sea Of Thunder today.
So A P knows all about Hazy Tom, who has to carry a penalty: he will have watched his novicy jumping, will have seem him lack fluency at the last when put under pressure.
Also on my side if I lay Hazy Tom at around even money (2.12 as I write) is Nodform Richard, from a yard in devastating form just now, getting 7lb from the previous winners here and reckoned a horse with a future in the McCain stable tour.
As for Fists Of Fury, it seems a straight fight between that one and Battle Group but ‘Fury’ has already made a fair fist of it over fences, whereas this is Battle Group’s first attempt and he’s been in poor form over hurdles lately.
Expect to see McCoy make a lot of use of the Byrnes gelding, who is by Beneficial out of a Le Moss mare, so has ‘stay forever’ stamped on him.
At Fontwell, Always Bold (1.50) is another paper favourite I want to ‘get.’ He’s always been a bridesmaid, unable to win even a seller.
Then last time out, he fluked it over today’s CD, handed a race ‘a month slow’ (in fact, a colossal 1m 5.40secs above average).
Always Bold has to get out of walking pace here, upped in grade and with all five opponents having won one of their last four races.
4.05 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Median Auction Maiden Stakes) Three-year-olds have won both runnings of this race and punters have been nearly right both times with winners at 7-2 and 11-4.
Abadejo and My Best Man are from the only stables in any real form, both exposed but both returning to the minimum.
You couldn’t back Balladeira, Cranworth Quest, Dolly Bay or Una Vita Pius with any confidence; their trainers are high on the cold list.
Cliffords Reprieve and Miakora are drawn handy but, if forced to bet, I’d have my pound on lightly-raced Itum, who got involved over CD in September (Miakora behind) but was then badly drawn at Wolverhampton.
4.35 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Handicap) Again, three-year-olds have won both runnings of this, and Nially Noo, who races prominently, was a fair price for a back-and-lay bet this morning, though I think they’ll let Scarlet Rocks try to rail round in front, dropped back to 5f for the first time since August and a winner over further at Windsor last month.
The Strig (badly drawn) and Sherjawy are also front-runners but their yards are so out of form, you wouldn’t expect them to last long and jumping ship before the final furlong is unlikely to present you with much of a margin.
Estonia seems to hold the key, going for a CD hat-trick, but badly off now with Nially Noo and back-to-form Absa Lutte, and on earlier form with less in hand on Griffin Point.
I’ll take the lightly-raced one again: Nially Noo has scope for improvement, with just four runs on the CV, though I’d rather Derek Shaw’s stable was in better heart.
5.05 Kempton (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) A race for outsiders so far (14-1 and 20-1), despite there being only seven runners last year. With eight this time, an each-way bet beckons.
There’s certainly a strong possibility of a turn-up, with bags of pace on via Understory, Megalala, Classically, Ela Gonda Mou and Sand Skier.
Throats will be cut and maybe Sakhee’s Pearl will be the beneficiary, trying this trip for the first time and running on the last twice over 7f on this course: 9.8 this morning.
5.35 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Nursery) The winner has come from the top three in the weights every time, and always well backed (nothing above 4-1 in the three years of the race’s history).
Of those three, Charles Hills is claiming off the disappointing Hey Fiddle Fiddle and Hesperides (drawn widest of all) has to overcome a 104-day Harry Dunlop losing run of 43 stumers.
Purley Queen is the one for me, tried in a class-2 conditions race on the back of some reasonable maiden efforts; this first-time nursery gives her a chance: the 12.0 on betdaq this morning is massive.
Those wary of stable ploys will also have to ‘leave a pound’ on Liquid Sunshine: from the same stable as Purley Queen, she was unfancied at 40-1 over CD recently but, if she hadn’t been denied a run, would have been placed, probably second.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) FISTS OF FURY (12.55 Wetherby)
LAY to win 10pts HAZY TOM and 3.2pts win NODFORM RICHARD (1.30 Wetherby)
LAY to win 10pts ALWAYS BOLD (1.50 Fontwell)
BET 2.2pts win and place SAKHEE’S PEARL (5.05 Kempton)
BET 1.8pts win PURLEY QUEEN and 1.2pts win LIQUID SUNSHINE (5.35 Kempton)
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