‘LONG RUN WILL BE ODDS ON IF KAUTO STAR DROPS OUT’: That’s Daqman’s twist on the King George, after the hype for Kauto Star this morning. Check out the offers in Betdaq Ante-Post and take your pick. Now here’s Daqman’s analysis of today’s Kempton card, not for jumpers but Betdaq-sponsored on the AW.
Price Not So Wise. The King George hype for Kauto Star this morning is inevitable after his defeat of Long Run at Haydock, but it’s misguided. His programme was brought forward this year, simply because he was unlikely to win the big ones at the age of 11.
And Long Run’s trajectory was tilted toward the King George and the Gold Cup. There’s a simple reason for that, too. He’s known to be the best.
Twice only since 1938 has an 11-year-old won the King George. Comeback wins are not unusual (Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid, See More Business) but none has done it at the age of 11, and none after four previous wins.
It would need to be a bad year or for something to happen to Long Run; taking 5-1 or so Kauto Star can be justified only for that reason. But, then, by the same token, why not take 6-4 Long Run; he’ll be odds on if Kauto Star drops out.
And you have it on the table this morning that Long Run is a definite runner whereas a decision about Kauto Star ‘will be taken in around three weeks’ time’.
You only have to look at Kauto Star’s recent record to see the kind of animal he is in the twilight of his career: 2009, only one run between December and November (successful); 2010, only one run (successful); 2011, three runs (failed, failed, failed, in that order). Meanwhile, at Kempton Park today:
4.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq Multiples ‘Hands And Heels’ Apprentice Handicap) Horses aged three and four have won four out of five and, bearing in mind they are another year older in little more than a month from now, the veterans in this race – and any other non sprint – are seriously up against it.
So, too, I imagine are Satwa Ballerina (trainer 362 days without a winner), Kenswick (154 days), The Ducking Stool (67) and Kyncraighe (61).
Fayre Bella’s trainer, John Gallagher, has not only failed to score for 118 days but also has drawn a blank at Kempton from 36 runners in the last 594 days.
No wonder Fayre Bella (forecast 11-2) has drifted like a dog on a raft out to the betting weir at 13.5 on Betdaq, as I write.
Strangely for such small stables, and strange that they clash here, George Margarson (Storm Runner) and John Ryan (Blueberry Fizz) are together at the top of the Racing Post’s In Form (RTF) list of those yards getting the most out of their runners.
Oddly again, these two horses have raced against each other twice in the last five weeks, with Storm Runner the better on turf but only fifth when Blueberry Fizz was third at Lingfield on the Poly a week ago.
As a three-year-old, Blueberry Fizz should still be on the upgrade; the same applies to Shaunas Spirit, and I expect them to take over at the front of the market, with Ocean Countess likely to ease (0-12 on AW).
4.30 Kempton Park (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Claimer) In the absence of Final Delivery, Cristal Gem is a pound short of a stone in front of this lot, taking Kieran O’Neill’s allowance into consideration.
The grey Snowed In is back to his best trip but looks exposed. Siouxies Dream (19.0 on the Daq this morning) could improve and place at least, with the yard doing well right now, but the race has cut up to seven starters.
5.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq Mobile Apps EBF Maiden Fillies) It’s not big game but Jeremy Gask seems to have this one in the bag, as he fires both barrels.
The Betdaq market tells me that Topflight Princess is marginally better than Wiltshire Life but ‘Life’ has more experience, and I’ll take a bit of 5.6 and save on the stablemate.
5.30 Kempton Park (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Listed) The once-poker-faced ex-champion, now smiling at his bank balance, Ryan Moore starts a five-race stint in this one.
We are suddenly hiked half a dozen grades to Listed level, with a splendiferous prize for midweek, so Newmarket trainers have been tempted on to the motorway. They’ve won it three years out of the four.
Moore’s mount, Barbican, is one of those raiders today, trying to cap an excellent year but, as a Group-3 third, has something to find with dual Group-3 winner, Laaheb.
Laaheb also has the advantage of having proved himself on the Kempton surface at that higher level but has struggled this year, albeit mainly in Group 2.
But, since his defeat dropped to a Listed last time came after a four-month break, he seems to be the better bet here at around 2-1.
Moore on Silenzio (6.30) can reverse recent form with Main Beach, with their luck of the draw already reversed: Silenzio, in 12 that day, is now in 4; Main Beach – also 6lb worse off – was in 5 and is now in 11.
Main Beach is also 5lb worse with Mottley Crewe, whom he beat at Wolverhampton in September; both have improved to class-4 since that seller, but in what proportion is difficult to ascertain. At 6.6, Silenzio is the most tempting.
But Bandstand goes really well fresh and, at 13.5, is the each-way punt. Hereford CD winner Ours (2.50) appeals for the same reason.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.5pts win OURS (2.50 Hereford)
BET 4pts win BLUEBERRY FIZZ and 2.6pts win SHAUNAS SPIRIT (4.00 Kempton Park)
BET 4.3pts win WILTSHIRE LIFE and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) TOPFLIGHT PRINCESS (5.00 Kempton Park)
BET 10pts win (nap) LAAHEB (5.30 Kempton Park)
BET 3.5pts win SILENZIO and 1.6pts win and place BANDSTAND (6.30 Kempton)
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