NEW READERS START HERE: What do Daqman’s points bets mean? What is his overall strategy? In which races on which courses does he excel? Daqman aims to answer these questions today and tomorrow.
DAQMAN RAISES HIS GAME: Starting later in the week, as the major meetings come around, Daqman will increase his stakes with big-win targets. Today he explains his points system and its strategy.
The name of the game is class. And I’m going to boost my stakes to jackpot level at the meetings I do well at, those with quality racing. But I need a strategy for everyday betting, too.
That means a staking plan within an overall game plan. Overall, I’m going to try to win 20 points a day in normal racing, 35 points a day at midweek major meetings and 50 points on a Saturday or at the top-flight festivals.
Tonight at Kempton Park, I’m mixing lays, intended to earn my 20 points outright, with win bets also targeted at 20 points. For insurance purposes, there are place bets to try to cover the win stakes, should the win part of the bet go down.
Each win bet is calculated at Betdaq offers at the time of making the selection: so, at 8.8 in the 6.50 race, you will see that I bet 2.6pts the win (2.6 x 7.8 = 20).
In this way, you have an instant check on two things: what offers were available when I made the selection in the morning and by how much the offers bettered the SP.
6.20 Kempton (betdaq.com Every Wednesday At Kempton Apprentice Handicap): Apprentice races are notoriously difficult, witness the four runnings of this one, won at 50-1, 16-1 and 7-1 (twice): not a favourite in sight.
One common denominator is that it helps to have recent course form (three of the four), so I’m bound to give a chance to Kielty’s Folly: the grey has never been out of the frame at Kempton, with course returns of 24124.
Adam Beschizza is the only jockey to have previously won on his mount tonight; that’s Aggbag, but the partnership’s win came on turf – not AW – at Warwick seven weeks ago. However, Adam rode this track well when he won a claimers’ handicap here on the first of the month.
David Kenny did well on Signora Frasi, second over CD last September, and last-time-winner Kenswick will be popular, despite Kempton form figures of 02200400.
The recent success – on turf at Lingfield – was Kenwick’s only win in 23 starts and the chances of back-to-back success for him (or for any animal at this level) are pretty remote. Lay.
6.50 Kempton (betdaq.com Exchange Prices Multiples Handicap): As ever at this level, stick to the top half of the handicap – at least they have something to show for themselves – and, sure enough, there has been no winner in the four years of this race with less than 8st 10lb.
Three of the four had won or been second on the course on this surface but the worry about supporting CD winner, Kavaloti, is that he’s a kinky sort who can throw in the towel if he feels like it, and 9st 7lb is just that little bit more than has been carried to victory in this before.
Frameit, a good second here in January and who has run well on the course two grades higher, has the visor back on tonight, with Jim Crowley booked: a tasty 8.8 this morning.
7.20 Kempton (Lay Back And Win At betdaq.com Maiden Stakes): Crowley rides the favourite here, Pearl Mix: she has the benefit of a place run on the course under the same jockey.
Clean Bowled and Storm Belt (stable won this last year) should also improve for their runs but those to take out of the race are likely to be Spirit Of The Law – Ed Dunlop’s usually need their first outing – and another debutant, Position.
I can’t resist a tiny flutter on Position at 23.0 on the Daq, as I write, since Sir Mark Prescott hasn’t had a two-year-old out of the frame yet: his four juvenile runners have been first, second, third and fourth.
Position should do better over further and, as a Medicean, may need time, but I’ll follow the stable trend at such generous offers. One thing’s certain, if she is capable of winning over this 7f first time up, then she is going to set up a sequence, and sequences – new readers start here – are Sir M Prescott’s game.
7.50 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Fillies’ Handicap): Something’s gotta give as the unstoppables meet here: on the one hand with exposed form, Chevise has completed a five-timer on AW and reverts to her conditions from turf tries while, on the other hand, Hallelujah is unexposed with one run one win for the stable in form, the equally unstoppable James Fanshawe.
For a yard seemingly in the doldrums to prepare a return to form at Royal Ascot, then land a double, tells you all you need to know about J Fanshawe but we know very little about Hallelujah.
Like Little Curtsey, from another yard still celebrating Ascot, she has been off since the autumn, yet the pair are first and second favourites and best value in the race must be Freckenham (7.2), who might also be a sequence setter had not her hat-trick bid been spoiled when she hit her head on the stalls.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY to win 10pts KENSWICK, and BET 3.7pts win AGGBAG and 2.2pts win KIELTY’S FOLLY (6.20 Kempton)
LAY to win 10pts KAVALOTI and BET 2.6pts win and place FRAMEIT (6.50 Kempton)
BET 0.9pts win and place POSITION (7.20 Kempton)
BET 3.2pts win and place FRECKENHAM (7.50 Kempton)
