TWO OUT OF TWO NAPS: Daqman landed back-to-back AW naps with Captain Bellamy (WON 11-4) yesterday, following Berlusca (WON 100-30) on Monday. His overall profit on the two days was 32 points.
FOUR OUT OF FOUR LAYS: He landed a double whammy when Best Lover (fell 9-2 at Ayr) became his fourth consecutive successful lay and he backed Buffalo Bob (WON 2-1) in the same race.
There’s a plot behind the scenes. The great play is, of course, the Grand National. But, as the weather relents and rehearsal races proceed apace this weekend, it’s all happening Backstage.
A 47.0 Betdaq offer this morning – he’s only 33-1 with bookmakers – Gordon Elliott’s 10-year-old has already run in the big one at Aintree.
It’s not unusual for the winner to have failed in the race before; the experience is a massive help: only recently, Mon Mome finished 10th off 141 and won the race the following year off 148, despite the 7lb rise.
Backstage was 10th to Ballabriggs last year off 148 but has been let in an eye-opening 10lb lower on 138 for this year’s race.
Trainer Gordon Elliott was, in fact, hoping the horse would be lofted a little bit higher in the ratings because he now has to wait and see whether Backstage’s 10st 2lb will get him in.
The stats tell us that six of the seven winners between 2002 and 2008 won off 136, 138 (twice) and 139 (three times), which would put Backstage right on the apron, but for the fact that the last three winners, as quality not quantity is targeted by the race organisers, have scored off 148, 153 and 150, in that order.
However, 10st 2lb got in last year (it was carried by Skipper’s Brig) and, at 47.0, you can surely ‘leave a pound’ on this ‘plot’ horse.
Elliott won the National in 2007 with Paul Nicholls’ cast-off Silver Birch (10-10-6) after switching the horse to cross-country.
Backstage has got under the radar by racing only in point-to-points since that 10th in the National: his form-figures? 11111. But has the trainer overdone it, and left this fine jumper waiting in the wings, the understudy who will never get the part?
5.10 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Apprentice Handicap): Two riders stand out here, with three AW winners each in 2012, but Charles Eddery seems to have drawn the short straw with a 10-year-old, Le Reveur, who hasn’t won since 2006, and has never scored in England.
That could leave the way open for a boy in demand, Darren Egan, whose reward for a double at Wolverhampton on February 6th has been a quite remarkable tally of 19 rides for eager trainers.
Darren has failed to add to his 2012 total of three AW wins since that day, which also saw success for George Downing, riding for Tony Carroll, as he does on The Right Time here.
But Darren will never have a better chance than on Trecase, the shorter priced of two Tony Carroll runners in the race, and a close second a week ago.
5.40 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Handicap): Darren is unlikely to appear again on today’s card, as his mount in this one, Whodathought, is a doubtful runner.
Another leading apprentice, Shane Kelly, rides Richard Fahey’s favourite, Valley Tiger, having also steered home a Wolver winner from five rides in the last fortnight.
Though Valley Tiger was the ‘moral’, returning to that track under Jamie Spencer recently, beaten a neck giving the winner 7lb, the handicapper has dropped him a pound since.
Abigails Angel is consistent – though for only one (soft turf) win – but holds Cane Cat on her CD second in January. Mile winner on the course, Storm Runner, has tried 10f only once before, when fifth of seven at Yarmouth but you could say the same of Valley Tiger, whose sole 10f effort was seventh of eight.
I’m just wondering if The Which Doctor can bounce back: his last win was a class higher and he’s been dropped 6lb after a couple of quiet runs over shorter, with a 7lb claiming girl up last time. Lee Newman takes over at 14.0.
6.10 Kempton (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap): Four horses are separated by a mere 0.6 points as I write – open race or what! – made the more difficult because Richard Guest runs three and Milton Bradley two of only nine runners.
I fancy a bit of Best Trip at 9.2, as I write: tongue-tied for the first time and 6lb lower than when winning a class higher on today’s course. This is his time of year, with all wins between January and April. And all at Kempton.
6.40 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap): This is also crowded at the front of the market, though offers about Emerald Royal are quite a bit shorter than the rest.
As I say (ad infinitum), horses can’t be trusted at this level, and rarely put back-to-back wins together, but Emerald Royal won on his first run for Eric Wheeler after being gelded (the horse, not Eric, which I’ll leave the man to explain, not the horse).
It will be hard to stop a Nicky Henderson treble at Kelso and Sybarite (1.50 Southwell), who has been given his first real chance after running in top company, was isolated at the head of the market this morning; everything else was on the drift.
The same snubbing of his opponents has happened with Southern State (4.00 Lingfield), and there was a gamble there on claimer-ridden Edgeworth (4.30), who leapt to the front of the market from a forecast 10-1. But they’re all as short as a sheared sheep now, so no nap today.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.5pts win and place THE WHICH DOCTOR (5.40 Kempton)
BET 2.4pts win BEST TRIP (6.10 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: BET 1pt win BACKSTAGE at 47.0 (Aintree Grand National, Saturday April 14); already on Monday 1pt win HOLD ON JULIO at 39.0.
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