FOUR BETDAQ SPONSORED RACES AT KEMPTON TONIGHT: Daqman analyses the Betdaq-sponsored quartet of races tonight at Kempton Park.
STAKING PLAN GIVES WAY TO TEMPTING YANKEE: He sticks to his staking plan, in which bets are placed to win 20 points on each horse (unless it’s a stakes saver). But he can’t resist a yankee on the four!
6.20 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Apprentice Handicap) MymumsaysImthebest can win at 5f, can win at 6f and can win at Kempton. What he can’t so far do is put back-to-back wins together.
Fantasy Fighter can, Paphos can, Tislaam can, though I wouldn’t want to be with Paphos, with trainer Stuart Williams suffering a sudden dip in form. The stables of Freddie’s Girl, Peter Island and Angel of Fashion are also out of form.
Dies Solis is probably better than the bare figures and Picansort has dropped in grade, but those two have the worst of the draw.
Compare Fantasy Fighter’s form figures at Kempton (3300) with Tislaam’s (12310). Primo de Veda has been placed there twice but was behind Tislaam at Lingfield.
In an apprentice race, we have evens the field (‘Mymum’), 10.5 bar two this morning (Paphos is 8.0), which means you’ve just got to dip into such a punter-friendly ‘book’. I took some of the Tislaam’s 12.0 offers.
6.50 Kempton (Lay Back And Win At betdaq.com Handicap) Ratings of 62 and 64 have won the two runnings of this race, which points to Dakar, Watered Silk and Gower Rules. One of those winners, Captain John Nixon, runs in the 8.50, where he and Regal Park – two out of two over CD – should fight it out.
But back to this race, where Dakar, Gambis and Dark Spirit are the dark horses, first time in a handicap, but there’s not a penny for any one of them, and no hint from their maiden form.
Watered Silk and Gower Rules were first and second here in April when Watered Silk reversed earlier placings and when, as was proved afterwards, Westhaven ran like a mile-and-a-quarter horse.
Watered Silk forged clear of front-runner Gower Rules, who tried the same leading role three weeks later and almost held on, with Ministry and Warrant behind.
Final Liberation was also a front-runner when stepping up to today’s trip brought about improvement at Lingfield. So, for me, the race is set up for Watered Silk, returning to Polytrack from turf. Nutshell could improve for the trip.
7.20 Kempton (betdaq.com Exchange Price Multiples Maiden Stakes) The three American-breds should take well to this surface: El Mansour already has but seems a bridesmaid; Rainy Champion doesn’t look an easy ride; so Gilt would be my pick of the trio, since Ed Dunlop’s improve with racing and the grey filly should do much better on a man-made surface.
Hawawi and Keys (for first-time blinkers) could improve, but of those to have raced, I prefer Asterism, Oasis Memory and Tarkeeba, to which I would add Epic Storm.
Epic Storm really belongs on the US list because, though Irish bred, the dam’s side has American winners in the family.
Tarkeebaq is related to an AW winner and, as far Oasis Memory, John Gosden is winning consistently with a quarter of everything he runs.
But I’m siding with Asterism, not knocked about on the debut at Sandown, with second, third and fifth all winning since.
7.50 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps British Stallions Studs E B F Maiden Fillies’ Stakes) Even less racecourse information is available from this maiden, so they‘ve gone for Iceni Girl, who has experience, a good draw and that man Gosden behind her. Three boxes ticked. But it’s a bad race for favourites.
The outside stall won’t help Gooseberry Fool and, adjacently, Accustomed will no doubt need the run. Parley seems best of the newcomers and the market says Costa Del Fortune is best of Hannons but Ryan Moore has switched overnight from ‘Costa’ to Make Up.
Of the remaining trio, Reemaya is American bred but the first to be cut loose, since she probably needs more time, as a late foal unsighted on the debut.
Parley is the one on breeding but is 7.0 from a paper forecast of 11-4. I’m inclined to back the Hannons: I get an outsider (18.5 Make Up) and a second favourite, 4.1 Costa Del Fortune. Can’t be bad.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.8pts win and place TISLAAM and 3.4pts win (saver) MYMUMSAYSIMTHEBEST (6.20 Kempton Park)
BET 4.1pts win WATERED SILK and 2.7pts win NUTSHELL (6.50 Kempton Park)
BET 3.2pts win (nap) ASTERISM (7.20 Kempton Park)
BET 6.4pts win COSTA DEL FORTUNE and 1.1pts win and place MAKE UP (7.50 Kempton Park)
DAQ MULTIPLES: Tislaam (6.20 Kempton Park), Watered Silk (6.50 Kempton Park), Asterism (7.20 Kempton Park) and Costa Del Fortune (7.50 Kempton Park)
