SECRETS FROM THE STATS: WEDNESDAY ONE WEEK ON AT CHELTENHAM: Daqman continues his survey of the Festival stats, revealing race by race where the winners come from. Here’s his facts-and-figures analysis for Wednesday of next week.
‘Free Betdaq Cheltenham preview here tonight.’ (And free previews here in this column every day until Saturday). I’m quoting the name of the race at Kempton (5.30) this evening, which carries my nap, Distant Love. Now here’s my stats preview of the second day at Cheltenham next week:
CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY: 1.30 National Hunt Chase: The Irish, who used to farm this race, came back to score for the first time this century with Chicago Grey last year but he was an exception in more ways than one, winning off a rating of 151 in a very much stronger contest than usual, and starting favourite.
Poker De Sivola had won off 127 the previous year yet carried the same weight as Chicago Grey: 11st 6lb. In fact, a rating of 120 to 130 had previously trapped five winners in a row, so that SPs included 40-1, 33-1 (twice), 14-1 and 11-1.
Within that parameter from the 79 entries are only 14: Beneficial Reform, Ben’s Folly, Brunswick Gold, Court Red Handed, Definite Dawn, Eight Is My Number, Graduation Night, Iron Chancellor, Lively Baron, Mister Hyde, Monbeg Dude Dude, Oscar Dan Dan, Our Island, State Benefit.
Check them out for the strongest form clues, which are that the last five winners had all scored over 3m, four of them a furlong or two further, and that four of the last five had won or been second at a Cheltenham meeting before.
2.05 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle: Eight winners in the last decade had won or placed in a Graded hurdle, usually coming through from bumpers.
None was over the age of six (Boston Bob is seven and reportedly being backed instead for the Albert Bartlett), and only one had an SP bigger than 12-1.
So you want quality from among the young leading fancies, with 130 the ratings cut off point: that knocks out 57 of the 77 acceptors and leaves Ballyrock, Batonnier, Benefficient, Cotton Mill, Dedigout, Double Ross, Felix Yonger, Fingal Bay, It’s A Gimme, Keys, Knight Pass, Lord Windermere, Make Your Mark, Molotof, Monksland, Mono Man, Nagpur, Nelson’s Bridge, Ohio Gold, Savello, Simonsig, Sivola De Sivola, Simenon, Sizing Symphony, Sous Les Cieux, Sword Of Destiny, The Druids Nephew. Now check for Graded ability.
2.40 RSA Chase: Nine of the last 10 winners had won or been placed in a Graded chase, not necessarily over the full 3m. Seven-year-olds are eight out of 10 and have won the last five.
The winning-rating parameter of 146-155 recommends within that age only Bobs Worth, Champion Court, Grands Crus, Join Together and Walkon. Now check for Graded ability.
3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase: Eight winners this century had taken part in the Tingle Creek, won this year by Sizing Europe from Kauto Stone, with I’msingingtheblues fourth, Wishfull Thinking fifth and Gauvain a faller (but subsequently beat Somersby at Huntingdon and I’msingingtheblues and Kauto Stone at Ascot).
Against last year’s winner, Sizing Europe, is that he’s a double-figure age (0-15 in the decade), as is Gauvain and the 2010 scorer Big Zeb.
But, ratings wise (160-186), Finians Rainbow, Hold Fast, I’m So Lucky, I’msingingtheblues, Nacarat, Realt Dubh and Blazing Tempo are not up to it.
That leaves you with a short-list of Kauto Stone, Peddlers Cross, Somersby and Wishfull Thinking. All in the frame!
4.00 Coral Cup: Forget runners older than seven (one win since 1998), and ignore top-weights with more than 11st 3lb (one win since 1994) and bottomweights with less than 10st 3lb (one win since 1998).
Now 52 of the 148 entries remain, but there is a much bigger clue if recent trends are upheld – last three winners rated 140, 141 and 142 – and you have another frame filler of Knock A Hand, Sonofvic, Battle Group, Tenor Nivernais, and Tornado Bob. If only it was that simple.
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap: Another handicap which may be whittled down by the winners’ ratings (125 to 133 are four out of five).
Delete those remaining which are below the minimum weight carried in the five years (10st 4lb) and you have Kie, Colebrook, Arnaud, Bat Masterson, Moujik Borget, Ulck Du Lin, Kazlian, Vendor and Blue Cannon, which include three of the first four ante-post favourites, so that could well be where the winner comes from.
5.15 Champion Bumper: This is the Irish equivalent of England losing the Ashes if the home team prevails.
Colin Tizzard and Philip Hobbs have stopped a massive run of Irish winners – 14 out of 17 – and they take on the Irish duo of Pique Sous and Moscow Mannon with Royal Guardsman (Tizzard) and Village Vic (Hobbs).
Stats clue: nine out of 10 had won last time out, and the last five successful had had a maximum of three prior races, in which they had finished first or second, never worse than that.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win HURRICANE MILLY (2.00 Fontwell)
BET 7pts win MS CORDELIA (3.20 Catterick) as stakes saver for 9.3pts win CLEVER DICK (4.20 Catterick) plus 1pt win double the two.
BET 8.3pts win (nap) DISTANT LOVE (5.30 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Shangani (2.00 Fontwell), Dartford (4.10 Lingfield) and Duke Of Clarence (5.30 Kempton)
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