11-1 NAP IS A 50-POINT BETDAQ COUP AT 17.0: Daqman made a sensational start to Cheltenham yesterday when he napped Rock On Ruby (WON 11-1), his Champion Hurdle ante-post jackpot bet at 17.0 on Betdaq to win 50 points.
FESTIVAL ‘ROCK’ FOLLOWS SATURDAY’S 20-1 ‘BALL’: Only on Saturday he landed the Imperial Cup with Paintball (WON 20-1) and his current jackpot sequence also includes winners at 14-1 and 10-1 (twice).
244 POINTS PROFIT IN SENSATIONAL SEQUENCE: His win yesterday brings jackpot profits in the sequence to 245 points, of which 183 points has been won this year.
LAYS FOUR-TIMER AS ‘CRAZY’ BET IS FLOORED: Daqman also followed up a Saturday hat-trick of successful lays by targeting The Package (4th 6-1) as a ‘crazy’ bet, price wise.
11-2 ‘KING’ MAKES IT FOUR WINS ON THE DAY: Balthazar King (WON 11-2) in the cross-country was one of three more winners on the day, coining him a Festival profit so far of 58 points.
Follow trainers in form on the first day. That’s often a good guide to the three days to come, and the Festival stars so far are clearly Philip Hobbs (031), Donald McCain (0143200), and, as ever at this Cheltenham Festival, Jonjo O’Neill (one runner, one winner).
Apart from the iron horse Quevega, Willie Mullins’ yard (0000030010) failed to live up to the hype yesterday, and Alan King’s first-day assault disappointed (400), as did David Pipe’s (044). Nicky Henderson went 2010040300 and Paul Nicholls 040010000.
1.30 Cheltenham (National Hunt Chase): There were three fast times yesterday, and the change of ground and pace puts a question mark over many runners at the rest of the meeting. In this opener, stamina for 4m is also needed.
Harry The Viking and Strongbow’s Legend (a massive 34.0) have gone farthest fairly successfully so far; ‘Harry’ has his ground (all four wins on good, or good to soft) and ‘Strongbow’ is a handicapper running in novice company.
Three-mile winners already, and within the usual winning ratings band of 120 to 130, are Court Red Handed, Iron Chancellor, Lively Baron and Our Island, but Teaforthree has a hot stat taken from four of five previous winners: he’s been placed at Cheltenham before, if he could reproduce the form of his Cheltenham second to Join Together (runs in the RSA), he would just about win this.
Of the Willie Mullins’ pair, Allee Garde’s form is all right-handed, which also applies to Cottage Oak, Daffern Seal, Four Commanders and Our Victoria.
Alfie Spinner, Court Red Handed, Daffern Seal, Four Commanders (Kicking Kings brother), Iron Chancellor, and Lively Baron have all led in the past, so expect a cut-throat race despite the trip.
Find yourself a hold-up horse: last year’s winner, Chicago Grey, got a fence behind at one stage of the race. Ireland does not have a big record in this, and Soll lacks experience.
2.05 Cheltenham (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle): Eight winners in the last decade had won or placed in a Graded hurdle, with a minimum rating of 130, which reduces the field to the front eight in the market.
Sous Les Cieux is vulnerable as winner only on a right-handed track, only on soft or heavy ground so far, and held by Benefficient last time, though Benefficient’s lead was diminishing and this is further.
Sous Les Cieux’s stablemate Felix Yonger has to step back up in trip (beaten over 2m 4f at Cork in November).
A third Mullins runner, Make Your Mark, has already won on good ground and was third at Leopardstown to stablemate Boston Bob, now rated 151, which raises him close to the front rank here.
Cotton Mill’s form includes a win over the distance; that race has been boosted by the runner-up, and one of the jockeys of the season, Denis O’Regan, is in the saddle.
Double Ross’s Haydock second in January was given a big boost by the winner, Cinders And Ashes, yesterday but that was over 2m. Monksland’s tail-swishing is a worry.
Simonsig is a horse of pace and is short for what he’s done, beaten in his only Graded race and taking a small-field race last time when the runner-up was a chaser who had been beaten a total of 78 lengths in his two previous hurdles. Nicky Henderson has never won this race.
2.40 Cheltenham (RSA Chase): Grands Crus and Bobs Worth stand out here as seven-year-olds (eight out of 10) who have won or been placed in a Graded chase (9 out of 10) and are within the winning-rating parameter of 146-155.
‘Crus’ (for cruising) has already beaten Bobs Worth at Kempton and is hard to oppose. Nap.
3.20 Cheltenham (Queen Mother Champion Chase): Last year’s winner, Sizing Europe, and 2010 scorer, Big Zeb, are strictly past it! A double-figure age is 0-15 in the last decade
Eight winners this century had taken part in the Tingle Creek, won this year by Sizing Europe from Kauto Stone, with Wishfull Thinking (has breathing problems) fifth and Gauvain a faller.
Gauvain subsequently beat Somersby, who in turn defeated Finian’s Rainbow (holds Realt Dubh) at Ascot, and loves Cheltenham.
With Nicky Henderson saying all he can hope for is second spot with Finians, and with Big Zeb 11 now, and unlikely to regain the crown (only two have ever done it), it must be Sizing Europe with Kauto Stone (misses Ryanair for this) the potential improver.
4.00 Cheltenham (Coral Cup): Weights bigger than 11st 3lb (one win since 1994) are hard to carry, which is why Featherbed Lane (22.0 this morning) is claimed off by a rider (changed whip-hand and fumbled with reins) who cost him the Lanzarote over today’s trip at Kempton in January.
Philip Hobbs (winner yesterday remember) stands by the boy and you can bet he’ll be doing his James Best!
Stablemate Dare Me is a bit old to be winning this, as is Silverhand (8-y-o are 0-39) but Act of Kalanisi who was third in the Lanzarote now looks well in, also under a boy, the bright prospect Brendan Powell.
Another ridden by a boy is Tenor Nivernais, the only runner to fit the ratings trend (winners off 140, 141 and 142 in the last three years) and this former front-runner passed the test of being held up last time out.
Nicky Henderson is also being faithful to one of his riders, David Bass on Veiled (they are 2-2 together), with Barry Geraghty on Spirit River, but both were very easy to back this morning.
David Pipe has given himself a lot of chances, including Star Of Angels (fourth last year), Poole Master who got the trip well last time, and Balgarry, the seeming choice of Tom Scudamore but an uneasy favourite this morning with worries about the ‘bounce’ factor after his one run, one win in England.
But both Poole Master (9lb) and Balgarry (11lb) are due to go up in the ratings and Balgarry may be easy in the market now because the money is on!
If anything carries a big weight, it will be Carlito Brigante, last year’s easy winner under Davy Russell and laid out for the race again.
4.40 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap): A bigger headache than the Coral Cup, because most of them are unexposed. Ulck Du Lin is drifting like a dog on a raft as I write.
The talking horse Vendor and that rare commodity, an Irish horse that wants top of the ground – Gorgeous Sixty – are the ones for the money this morning.
5.15 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper): The Irish have already lost the cross-country title. Surely not this as well, as New Year’s Eve heads the market.
He must defy the stats, which don’t favour four-year-olds (1-33, the odd winner being Cue Card) and form at Ludlow and Market Rasen don’t inspire me. Lay.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.3pts win TEAFORTHREE, 3.1pts win HARRY THE VIKING, 0.6pts win and place STRONGBOW’S LEGEND (1.30 Cheltenham)
LAY to win 10pts SIMONSIG (2.05 Cheltenham), and BET 2.2pts win MAKE YOUR MARK and 2.1pts win COTTON MILL.
BET 14pts win (nap) GRANDS CRUS (2.40 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3pts win BALGARRY, 1.7pts win CARLITO BRIGANTE, 1.5pts win and place ACT OF KALANISI and 0.9pts win and place TENOR NIVERNAIS (4.00 Cheltenham)
BET 4.5pts win VENDOR and 2.3pts win GORGEOUS SIXTY (4.40 Cheltenham)
LAY to win 10pts NEW YEAR’S EVE (5.15 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double Grands Crus (2.40) and Sizing Europe (3.20)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
