FIVE WINNING DAYS OUT OF SIX: 83 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman is famous for his sequences: naps, lays and jackpots. He’s on the march again but this time it’s winning days, five of them from the last six, for a profit of 83 points, his only defeat when tackling Ireland’s first day of the Flat on Sunday.
BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: After Meridiem (WON 7-2), he named another odds-against nap at Betdaq morning offers yesterday, but Dawn Commander (WON 1-3) was the medium of a late gamble.
LAYS HAT-TRICK: Daqman completed a hat-trick of lays, with two more yesterday, one of them Finnegan Paddy (unplaced 7-1) in Dawn Commander’s race. He came close to another double whammy, tipping Jam Tomorrow (led when fell last) with the lay Western Kate (fell, evens favourite) at Hereford.
COUNTDOWN TO THE FLAT: THE LINCOLN: Today continues his Flat preview with a look at the Lincoln Handicap. TOMORROW: Horses to follow revision. FRIDAY: the Grand National for Spring Double punters.
Look out for a Lincoln gamble. In the good old bad old days, outsiders won Saturday’s big handicap almost every time: 19 out of 20 between 1979 and 1998 were a double-figure SP, including 33-1 four times.
But, ignoring the races run at Redcar (2006) and Newcastle (2007), the Doncaster mile has produced six winning favourites from the 11 renewals since 1999, with nine of the SPs of winners at between 3-1 and 10-1.
You will know from your own results, and from the winning jackpot bets I’ve listed in my Library, that early offers on Betdaq will include horses at odds massively bigger than the bookmakers will bet you. I suggest using some, or all, of the following guidelines to trap an early offer which seems likely to collapse in price:
AGE: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine; earlier, five-year-olds won three in a row (1999-2001). There’s been only one winner older than six in 24 years.
RATING: Winners at the turn of the century were rated 89, 90 and 91 but the quality has stepped up: the last seven Town Moor winners have come from the parameter 95-107, with five of them in the narrow band 95-98.
Among those recent winners were three who had already scored at 10 furlongs, as though stamina has become the edge as the quality has increased.
DRAW: ‘Don’t worry about the draw; just back come-from-behind horses where the pace,’ say the pundits. Not so.
In the last nine Doncaster renewals this century, six have been won by stalls 1 to 9; and, even more significantly, eight winners have come from a draw from 1 to 13.
Moreover, in six of the nine, the one-two came from stalls 1 to 9 and in five of them the 1-2-3-4 contained three horses from stalls 1 to 10.
5.40 Kempton Park today (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Handicap) On trainer form alone, you’d be wary of some of these: Malcolm Sanders (200 days without a winner) and Karen George (125) are in the doldrums; Peter Grayson is back on the ‘cold trainers’ list; Noel Chance’s stable is usually confined to jumpers.
Zoe Davison hasn’t had a winner at Kempton for 427 days and her hopeful here, Sherjawy, has gone 21 consecutive races without a single success. Forty Proof is on 22.
You could fancy Wreningham but his wins have come mainly on the soft or at Southwell. Invigilator has won on the course and was all over them at this trip last time out, when fading over further.
6.10 Kempton Park (Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) Lady Mandy catches the eye, upped in trip for her handicap debut, after having a bit of speed injected into her by some sprint maidens.
There’s not much between Saucy Cat, Courtesy Call and Tectonic at the revised weights after their 1-2-5 here six days ago. Bountiful Catch and Green Legacy look quirky, though I note that Green Legacy is Seb Saunders only ride of the day.
6.40 Kempton Park (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap) Both Bookiesindexdotnet and Mitie Mouse are down in grade and back to their winning track. But there could be massive kickback for these two hold-up horses, since the five others are all front-runners.
Fugitive Motel (steady gallop when he won) and Macdonald Mor (tried up to 1m 2f) are least likely to come out best in this cavalry charge; Blodwen Abbey’s success has come on the softer surface at Wolver; and J J Leary has to step up a grade and looks exposed now.
That leaves the grey filly, Lesotho, the least exposed and the best connected breeding-wise, but the one with the worst draw. Maybe I’m greedy, looking for better than 2.57, as I write.
7.10 Kempton Park (Betdaq Casino Games Classified Claiming Stakes) The ratings recommend Unlimited but, as they get older – he’s 10 now – horses usually like a bit of cut. Sure enough, his winning form in 2011 was at Wolver and he hasn’t scored at Kempton for more than four years now. Similarly Alpha Tauri likes the sand.
Indian Art is down in class; he’s only once tried a claimer, and he won it, whereas Spinning Ridge goes for a hat-trick in these races, the first of them here over a mile in January.
We don’t know much about the French import Finefrenzyrolling, but we know that Cheylesmore (a tasty 5.0) is a specialist at today’s 7f (three wins) and finished second trying to make all in a Kempton mile handicap. Back and lay.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8.5pts win (nap) AINE’S DELIGHT (4.10 Taunton)
BET 6.6pts win LADY MANDY (6.10 Kempton Park)
BET 4pts win CHEYLESMORE (7.10 Kempton Park)
BET 2.2pts win PARQUE ATLANTICO (8.40 Kempton Park)
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