CEELO THE NAP ON BETDAQ NIGHT AT KEMPTON: Richard Hannon can land yet another nursery with Ceelo on the BETDAQ-sponsored card at Kempton Park tonight
BALADY IS BIG AT 14.0: John Dunlop is finding his feet late in the season and one of his rare Spring winners, Balady, is too big at 14.0, says our man.
5.50 Kempton (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Apprentice Handicap): Thanks to a spell of five winners from nine rides earlier this month, Michael Murphy is on 19 for the season.
For we Murphy fans it’s a surprise to learn that Harry Bentley is ahead of him on 24. So it’s a bonus that the two young talents have been brought together by BETDAQ in this strong field at Kempton.
Murphy has a superb 57% record at Kempton, with four winners from seven rides, and it will be interesting to see how he rides Tenessee, who normally front-runs.
On a course winner over 10 furlongs dropping back to a mile, you’d expect Murphy to use the horse’s stamina and play catch-me. Back and lay?
Silver Alliance, who has been running well over further on turf, is also dropped back to a mile for the first time in a year: a winner over 9f at Wolverhampton, he’s performed well enough at Kempton before.
The tactics that day were to sit on the shoulder of the pacemaker, so again we can expect a front or van run from this grey gelding.
West Leake has won four times at Kempton and returned to form on the course three weeks ago: now 6lb below his last winning mark and 3lb below that for his last Kempton success, with David Kenny taking off three more.
Another down in the weights, 10lb lower than for the last of two handicap wins at Kempton, is Big Bay, and Green Earth is another dual CD winner.
The grey May’s Boy seemed to show something of his old form at Sandown last time, and the CD winner has the draw, which also applies to Mark Usher’s other runner, Katmai River, though usually regarded as a 7f horse.
Shauna’s Spirit’s eight stall is higher than his last two starts but he won very easily under today’s boy, Paul Booth, in June, and lost his chance when slowly away behind West Leake recently.
Nevertheless, he’s the most reliable animal in the field, placed seven out of nine and capable of winning here at 7f and 1m.
6.20 Kempton (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Maiden Stakes): Most of Michael Murphy’s best winners have come for Alan Jarvis and Dancing Chief could step up on his 6f debut here but he was very green that day.
And this time Murphy is the lone claimer against the big-time boys: Hughes, Buick, Dettori, Hanagan, Fallon and Barzalona make this BETDAQ maiden worth a pair of binoculars.
But, sitting at home, we want a price and our first worry about those that have already run twice is that they are one more race away from a handicap mark and a future in nurseries. Will they be exposed today?
That depends on the stable, and the team less likely to be playing that game is Godolphin, who have Camp Floyd and Cat O’Mountain both coming from promising debuts at Newmarket.
Mahmoud Al Zarooni has a good record in these events, particularly linked up with Mickael Barzalona, who is 3-9 for him in such maidens here.
6.50 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Nursery): A recent feature has been the successful fitting of a hood by top stables trying to do better with their lesser lights.
Roger Varian is Exceptionelle at it – 25% strike rate – and his Kempton CD winning filly must have a big chance of bouncing back.
But they say ‘second run for a two-year-old’ tells the true story, as I’ve learned myself with one of my own juveniles who ran really promisingly first time out but was covered in Daz when parading before her second outing (sweating so profusely with fear, she seemed coated in soap suds).
Though Titled Gent’s second appearance was a winning one, Kieren Fallon is trying to break a losing run of 31 rides in 144 days at Kempton, and I’d rather hold a watching brief on the Wolver winner.
Richard Hannon is leading trainer at Kempton, and Ceelo’s Leicester form has been franked since; they thought enough of him to go for a Super Sprint earlier on.
There’s a similar situation regarding Tommy’s Secret: the grey was well enough regarded to have a tilt at Royal Ascot (forget his run on heavy the last day) .
Jane Chapple-Hyam is top of the trainers’ tree for juvenile winners on this course but there’s no secret in the market: Tommy has drifted like a dog on a raft over the betting weir to 27.0 at the time of writing.
7.20 Kempton (Betdaq Casino Games Handicap): Kempton’s top jockey Jim Crowley has his only ride of the night on Wayne Manor for the yard most productive for him here: he’s 25% on Ralph Beckett’s runners.
Wayne Manor was lifted out of the doldrums by his first effort at 2m under a claimer at Lingfield in July.
Phantom Reach (Nottingham), Somemothersdohaveem (Wolver) and Vexillum (on turf) are the only winners in the field but Albonny, Cape Alex, Gucci d’Oro and Vena Amoris are all trying a new trip.
Cape Alex is making his handicap debut for Clive Brittain, who has a remarkable 43% record in races of this type on this course.
Ian Williams, trainer of Lady Mandy, is 33%, and the Teofilo filly has also promised that the step up to this 2m would suit her.
Williams is currently on a much better strike rate (5-17) than Clive (1-16), while Mick Channon (Vexillum) and David Simcock (Gucci d’Oro) are also in form.
Lady Mandy, Phantom Ranch and Vena Amoris are the three bred for this trip. Phantom Reach has already proved he can do it but I like the way Lady Mandy performed on this course in the Spring over shorter, and I shall forgive her the turf run behind Vexillum when she may have needed the race after her absence.
John Dnlop has finally found some form but backers are still ignoring his runners and Balady (8.50), 14.0 shot on BETDAQ this morning, may now be fit enough to recapture her winning form of the Spring.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win SHAUNA’S SPIRIT (5.50 Kempton)
BET 4.7pts win CAMP FLOYD and 2.3pts win CAT O’MOUNTAIN (6.20 Kempton)
BET 10pts win (nap) CEELO (6.50 Kempton)
BET 2.6pts win LADY MANDY (7.20 Kempton)
BET 1.5pts win and place BALADY (8.50 Kempton)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you always know what Betdaq offers he took when he made his selection (divide 20 by the stake). Points are what you make them: if you bet in fivers, 2pts win is £10.
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