LOOKING FOR A PEARL IN BETDAQ RACES: Daqman is hoping he has found a pearl of a bet in a Betdaq-sponsored Listed race among the exchange’s named events at Kempton Park this evening.
I’D RATHER ‘GET BEAT’ SAYS DAQMAN: Daqman’s sequence of four naps in a row ended yesterday when his selection fell in third place, with the race still not won. ‘I’d rather be beaten fair and square,’ says Daqman, who is now on 1111F.
Punters have been caught red-handed today. In a race of five last-time-out winners at Hexham this afternoon, the one they want is Caught In The Act, three points clear favourite in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
They no doubt base their judgment on his recent Kelso success on heavy, first run back. But that’s the whole point: Caught In the Act won when fresh last year but his form figures afterwards were 6P6P.
I remember an animal of my own who took a long time to ‘forget’ the exertions of a race but would go well, oblivious, after a long holiday. There are hundreds like him.
Caught In The Act may win; if so, well done that trainer. But he won’t win with my money at a short price in an open race. In fact, I’ll be laying him.
Royal Curtsey has already gone downhill since his own winning return. In fact, none of them are horses to follow, but Along Came Rosie has herself the right side of the handicapper.
She is 7lb lower than her winning mark over fences in a grade-higher race. The stable is in form so she is, hopefully in good heart: 10.0 gives us a chance to find out without too much damage. Showed at Sedgefield that she loves soft-heavy ground.
4.00 Kempton Park (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Median Auction Maiden Stakes) Caboodle was sent up to Pontefract for an ‘easy’ (it wasn’t). Green Mountain is back to the minimum on this track for the first time since her half-length second here in September.
Summer Sun didn’t run too badly last time, little more than a length off the winner. Place That Face is consistent (i.e. consistently showing she lacks pace in a finish).
4.30 Kempton Park (Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) Understory and Sakhee’s Pearl, who were second and fourth in this a year ago, make up a quartet of CD winners, along with Uncle Fred and Rezwaan.
Casual Mover was well behind Sakhee’s Pearl over CD a fortnight ago but is hooded today for the first time. Fly Solo is down from Yorkshire for his first handicap; one paced so far and has the outside draw tonight.
Wildomar is down in grade and won on the course last month but he’s dropped back two furlongs, also from a tricky wide draw.
Silver Bullitt and Poetic Lord have so far failed to translate their turf success to AW. The only money for the Pivotal gelding Ancient Greece was for his second on turf-soft ground.
Brimstone Hill got within a nose of Lean On Pete in the second of his back-to-back successes last month but there’s not much between ‘Brimstone’ and Fairyinthewind, hampered in that Lean On Pete race after a head second at Lingfield.
6.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq Casino Games Nursery) Holding Fast is officially 4lb ahead of the handicapper, according to the trade paper, whose own ratings have him even higher but be warned that his second last time out was in a seller.
Katy Spirit, on the other hand, was runner-up in a handicap at today’s level, not for the first time suggesting that she needs today’s extra furlong.
Darkest Night (when held up) and Derwentwater also indicated a need for further in their recent 6f races, and Girl Of Cadiz already has decent CD form.
No doubt because of his connections, Derwentwater was clear in the betting this morning, and the gelded son of Ravens Pass may well justify that. But there was a bit of each-way value in the 8.8 Girl Of Cadiz on BETDAQ, with Willie Twiston-Davies’ claim bringing her into contention for a yard famous for its nursery successes over the years.
6.30 Kempton Park (Betdaq Mobile Apps Hyde Stakes) This is a quality, Listed race beckoning a bet, with four last-time winners joined by Sirius Prospect at the front of the BETDAQ market.
He’s already a winner at this level but over 6f and, though he’s scored on this course at 7f, Sirius’ prospects are reduced by this being a mile.
Instance is behind him in the ratings, though the trip should bring them close together: he was unlucky in a 1m Lingfield Listed last time out. If only he had a better draw.
But Pearl Mix, Producer and Validus have all three tried their hand at Group level. You would expect one of them to mop this prize up, but which one?
Producer is a Group-3 winner but all his success has come at 7f and he’s easy to back this morning. Validus was dropped to a CD handicap and did it well earlier in the month, though must have surprised connections (SP 14-1).
It leaves me thinking Pearl Mix is the most straightforward. The grey is a dual winner at Kempton, his CD handicap win in September sandwiched between Group 2s on turf.
The 5.7 this morning seemed fair enough in a Daq Value race (110% or below).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.pts win and place ALONG CAME ROSIE (2.40 Hexham)
BET 2.5pts win and place GIRL OF CADIZ (6.00 Kempton Park)
DAQ VALUE BET 4.2pts win (nap) PEARL MIX (6.30 Kempton Park)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection.
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