PUNCHESTOWN WEEK OF HEROES: They’re off at Punchestown for yet another bare-knuckle contest with, in the green-and-orange corner, Willie Mullins, who had them down and out for yet another big count at Cheltenham. Now his Cheltenham heroes are back to defend their titles. Daqman reckons on 12 hot favourites during the week.
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 16-6: For punters, the green and orange means the back and lay of BETDAQ, with Daqman defending a 16-6 lead of Pricewise and 13 winning lays out of 14. Daqman meets Pricewise in the 4.55 and 6.40.
BIG-ODDS ATTACK ON THE LAYERS: Daqman finished the jumps in England with big-race winners at 16-1 and 8-1 on Saturday, and his bets today include 14-0 (twice), 13.0 and 8.4 BETDAQ offers.
MORE OF THE BOLGER-MULLINS WISH LISTS
3.40 Punchestown Enda Bolger’s record in the 10 years of this race is 1424113111, and he runs his last two winners, Be Positive and Wish Ye Didn’t, both ridden on their day by Nina Carberry, who goes for the race hat-trick on Wish Ye Didn’t this afternoon.
But it’s a case of wish you hadn’t put a third horse, Enda – it spoils chance of a dutch – and five-year-old Strangford Lough could well be number one; he resembles Be Positive, when he ran at the same age with not much form but plenty of potential. A successful gamble ensued, in to 3-1 favourite.
Strangford Lough was already 4.2 on BETDAQ early mouse, with Wish Ye Didn’t favourite, 9.0 bar the two. It’s Nina Carberry v Jamie Codd, a match worth seeing in itself.
4.20 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) The doors of the Willie Mullins hangar of jet-propelled protagonists reopen and the high flyers are out again.
Yorkhill is likely to be the first of four hot favourites today alone, and I can count potentially eight more by the end of the week.
Yorkhill has won at Cheltenham and Aintree and a hat-trick of the big festivals is on the cards, if not a formality.
Nicky Henderson and Kim Bailey attack from England but there has been no British-trained winner (0-12) in 17 years.
Seven out of 10 successful in this had scored in Grade 1 or 2, and Charbel comes closest to Yorkhill’s quality, having run fifth in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham (in front of Petit Mouchoir, winner of the bumper on this card last year), after slamming Brain Power 11 lengths in his prep race.
Lines through Yanworth give Yorkhill about five lengths to spare over Charbel, and he must go in my Daq Multiples.
14.0 ANCIENT SANDS THE FIRST-DAY VALUE
4.55 Punchestown Just one favourite has won in 11 seasons, but Copy That has looked progressive in only a few starts and Barry Geraghty has a good record for the Harty yard.
Automated has even less experience but ran well at Aintree in his first handicap hurdle, though Gordon Elliott remains out of form.
Nine out of 10 winners in the decade have carried 10st 7lb or lower, including English raider Cool Macavity in 2014. He’s back for more, but was last but one in 2015.
The ground has come right for Ancient Sands, ridden by teenage Grand National winner, David Mullins. This horse wins on no worse than yielding.
Ancient Sands is 18lb better with Copy That on their Leopardstown form over Christmas on heavy, and 14.0 on BETDAQ is the first bit of value at the meeting.
AND 14.0 IN-FORM GODS OWN A GOOD PUNT
5.30 Punchestown (Champion Chase) Vautour is odds-on favourite despite his fall at Aintree. Another Mullins hot-pot. Another for your Daq Multiples.
But the value bet in the race is a place bet on God’s Own, with three chances out of eight at three times the win Vautour.
I shall spend the winnings from the place in advance by having a punt backing Gods Own to win at 14.0 on BETDAQ this morning. After all he took the Aintree race when Vautour fell.
6.05 Punchestown Willie Mullins has won this four times in the decade. The race is not the kingmaker that the Cheltenham bumper can be, though Gordon Elliott’s winner last year, Petit Mouchoir, has done well enough in the Grade-1 novice-hurdle sphere for Willie Mullins.
MULHOLLAND DRIVE WITH 8.4 SOUTHFIELD
6.40 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) This is usually quite an open race and, though Willie Mullins has won it four times in the decade, only one was a short-priced favourite.. in fact, the only favourite to score in the entire 10 years!
Ten of the last 11 winners were six or seven years old but Rule The World is no slouch. He’s finished in the first four in seven Graded chases and won two Graded hurdles. But has he recovered from the Grand National?
Mouse Morris can’t let the opportunity go by of running a Grand National winner as a novice chaser – he’s still qualified – but most winners of the gruelling marathon at Aintree fail to return to form ever, and this only 17 days after the race.
Mouse has already made history with two National winners this year, the Irish and the Liverpool original; and anoraks could be scratching their heads to find an Aintree hero who ran, never mind won, in a novice event afterwards.
Southfield Royale is intriguing after his fourth in the NH Chase at Cheltenham, with the Scottish Grand National winner, Vicente, just behind him.
Trainer Neil Mulholland is back to form, driving to the top, and won the Sandown Gold Cup on Saturday. The 8.4 Southfield on BETDAQ seemed a good offer.
VROUM VROUM! HAVE HELMET, WILL TRAVEL
2.45 Bath US trainer Wesley Ward has stolen the headlines here with a first-time runner at Bath, the filly New Trier, but she needs to shape a lot better than she did at Kempton. And the real headliner of the race is the sire, Helmet, who has two runners.
Aussie Helmet’s stallion billing is ‘ the best juvenile by the world’s best sire of juveniles (Exceed And Excel)’.
Down that line they come at top speed! Helmet’s progeny has had four two-year-old starts in England this year: three winners and one beaten a neck.
That one was Kreb’s Cycle, second in a similar CD race 11 days ago. But trainer of two of the Helmet winners, Mark Johnston, saddles another one, Havelock, for Sheikh Hamdan, who has already had a winner, Grizzle, from Havelock’s dam.
Aussie speed usually outruns both English and American, and I shall cold-shoulder New Trier and try the Helmets: win Havelock at 6.8 with an even-money saver Kreb’s Cycle. Pity I can’t do doubles with Vroum Vroum Mag..
MULLING OVER CHINN TIRE AT BETDAQ 13.0
4.45 Nottingham Stable form and stats are a vital ingredient of race analysis but they can be misleading.
For example, Jennie Candlish is 3-4 at Nottingham, a 75% strike-rate. A small sample? Smaller than you think.. It’s one horse!
Three wins in four visits by Maoi Chinn Tire furnish this stat, but jumps-trainer Jennie is in good form and has managed to keep the stable’s Flat strike rate between 20% and 33% in the last few years.
Despite offers as big as 13.0 on BETDAQ, Maoi could easily chin them, as first-time-out winner in 2014, with Tom Queally booked to ride off a mark actually lower than the nine-year-old’s penultimate success.
There’s not a lot to beat, with Desdichado a guesswork favourite (will being gelded make the difference?) and Avenue Des Champs up 10lb and two grades, since the first of his back-to-back wins.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stake as stated)
BET (to win 20) 3.4pts on each HAVELOCK and KREB’S CYCLE (2.45 Bath)
BET (to win 20) 1.6pts win and place MAOI CHINN TIRE (4.45 Nottingham)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) 3.8pts win and place ANCIENT SANDS (4.55 Punchestown)
BET (to win 30): 2.3pts win and place GODS OWN (5.30 Punchestown)
BET (to win 30) 4pts win (nap) SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (6.40 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pts win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles: Yorkhill (4.20 Punchestown) with Vautour and Gods Own (5.30 Punchestown) and with Southfield Royale (6.40 Punchestown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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