8.6 DAQMAN NAP AT LINGFIELD: Saturday racing is reduced to a northern jumper in the mud and an AW meeting at Lingfield, but Daqman, who started the new year with a winning nap and lay, and a 2-0 win over Pricewise in the big races, takes him on again in the 2.35 and 3.10 Lingfield. His nap was an 8.6 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
BETDAQ FOR VALUE AS EVER: Says Daqman: ‘The launch of my new bankers will have to wait until another day but what has not changed, despite a bleak Saturday, is the value in the BETDAQ orange. I found huge offers at 16.5 and 10.0 this morning.’
2.00 Lingfield This is a class-6 race so the form is unreliable but the stats tell us that all winners have come from a single-figure stall and were regulars at Lingfield, doing well there in the past off a similar mark.
That’s just what Presumido did last time but he is creeping up the handicap and things have to fall just right.
Chevise (16.5 on BETDAQ this morning), a one-time multiple winner on AW, including here, ran in snatches last time, just missing out with a late rally under Andrea Atzeni, who keeps the ride. Blinkers might help her concentrate and run a more even race.
The money was down on Joyous for her first handicap over CD last month and she just missed out after being hampered. Robert Winston has a 26% strike rate for the Ivory yard.
2.15 Newcastle Three of these are 9 and 10 years old now and Leroy Parker hasn’t been placed in a hurdle since winning his maiden more than two years ago. Lysino is consistent without threatening to score.
Circus Star, hit by the handicapper 17lb for back-to-back wins in December, is still a good call in this company, though a front-runner in the mud is always vulnerable.
And lightly-raced grey Nautical Twilight ran a sound second in her first handicap over CD on the soft a fortnight ago.
2.35 Lingfield The bottom four are out of the handicap, the top two reappear after a long absence, and I can’t have runners over the age of six.
That leaves me choosing from a short-list of five in a handicap of class-2 status, which appears too high up the ladder for Swing Alone at the weights, and first-time blinkered Kashmir Peak is better known as a hurdler these days
Modernstone, fourth in a Kempton Listed, should confirm the form of her CD success over Grendisar.
Castilo Del Diablo got close to a Group horse in a quality BETDAQ sponsored race at Kempton in July. The cheekpieces he wore then are back on today and he has a handy stall after being badly drawn there three times in a row.
Jamie Spencer is booked for only the second time. He was on board for a class-2 at York at the Ebor meeting but found the soft ground against him and finished sixth.
Halfsin won there last month, a heat of the London Middle-Distance Series, only to get a bad draw in the final a fortnight later. Likes to have his own way, though.
2.50 Newcastle Dingo Bay won twice at this class-5 level here, starting at this time last year, and Tresor de l’Isle is back in his winning grade.
Indian Voyage is still a maiden but Mr Chippy loves the mud and was in the frame on all starts in 2011. Watch the market to get a clue to his wellbeing.
3.10 Lingfield Factors against the continued run of Perfect Pasture, after five wins in a row, are that four of them were over the minimum, only one was on a manmade surface and the stable is now badly out of form.
After a losing favourite on Boxing Day, odds about ‘winner trained M Easterby’ have reached the absurd proportions of 33-1, 50-1 and even 100-1 among his last few runners.
His most recent six starters have been beaten a total of 291 lengths under both Rules. We were told in September that Mick would retire ‘at the end of the year.’
To say that he’s still going strong would be to use a hackneyed expression where ‘still going weak,’ would be more appropriate.
Meanwhile, Richard Hannon, who took over the reins at Everleigh with first-runner-first-winner Unscripted, puts blinkers first time on Kyllachy Rise. Whether they will sharpen up this 7f horse sufficiently to take a 6f sprint remains to be seen.
Stuart Williams is the trainer in form with two wins from his last three starters. Doctor Parkes runs off a lower mark than when winning at Doncaster in August but seven of his eight wins are at the minimum.
A bit of class is required. One of the three top weights has won this on both occasions in its inaugural two years.
Whaileyy, 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning, was narrowly beaten on his only start over today’s CD in this race last year after winning in this grade six weeks earlier, but that was at the turn of last year and has been out of form, since, albeit lightly raced and with a record of 1212 on Polytrack.
Rivellino is up in the weights for winning at Wolverhampton and Elusivity needs soft ground turf.
3.45 Lingfield Canadian Run is up in grade and up in the weights, but could be progressive and has won after a similar break.
Naaz beat Canadian Run at Sandown in September on the soft and was closing fast on the first three (beaten a length) at Lingfield last month after a bad draw at Kempton.
Scottish Glen, six from nine at Lingfield, is raised to his highest ever mark and lucky to improve further as an eight-year-old. A hike in weights and in class stopped The Great Gabrial last time but he’s three from three at Lingfield.
Soaring Spirirts is now weighted to get close to Scottish Glen who beat him in an apprentice race over CD.
Camachoice had back-to-back wins at Kempton as a three-year-old a year and more ago. He is a battler but much depends on his fitness (last seen in May), and returning without his usual cheekpieces. The stable had an isolated winner over Christmas.
The Ancient Greece stable has similar form, and the gelding’s wins in the last two years have all been over further than today. My Kingdom, on the other hand, usually runs over shorter.
Ishikawa, who returned to AW after failing to take to hurdles, does best at Wolverhampton and has been struggling off his highest ever Flat marks but first-time cheekpieces could restore his edge.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET 1.2pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) CHEVISE and 1pt win (stakes saver) JOYOUS (2.00 Lingfield)
BET 4.75pts win NAUTICAL TWILIGHT (2.15 Newcastle)
BET 2.8pts (nap) CASTILO DEL DIABLO (2.35 Lingfield)
BET 7pts win DINGO BAY (2.50 Newcastle)
BET 2.2pts win and place WHAILEYY (3.10 Lingfield)
BET 3.3pts win NAAZ (3.45 Lingfield)
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