20.0 SHOT CAN WIN MIDLANDS NATIONAL: Only a fortnight to go and Daqman leads Pricewise just 20-14. Can he hold on to his Jumps title and beat the Racing Post man for the seventh consecutive season? Today: 2.40 Kempton, 2.25 and 3.35 Uttoxeter, the Midlands Grand National, in which Daqman tips a 20.0 chance.
‘FANTASTIC’ 4.9 OFFERS ON BANKER NAP: Also today: Cheltenham wrap; huge offers at 9.8 in Kempton Silver Plate; ‘fantastic’ 4.9 banker which is one of Daqman’s horses to follow.
DAQMAN’S CHELTENHAM WRAP
TRAINER: They told me they’d taken half of Willie Mullins best horses away and that the other half were all off sick. But he still managed to win Cheltenham. He sure fooled me.
JOCKEY: If I’m to pay penance, I choose the Chinese water torture in preference to watching Ruby Walsh jump the last on a leader or a challenger.
HORSE Thankyou Cause Of Causes for making the festival memorable again (and again and again).
TAKE-OUT ONE: 130, 134, 135 (Tuesday), 133 twice, 139 (Wednesday), 131, 135 twice (Thursday), and 132, 136 twice (Friday) were bookies’ criminal overrounds, compared with morning offers of 101-108% generally on BETDAQ.
TAKE-OUT TWO: Buveur d’Air, Cause Of Causes, Defi De Seuil, and my 14-1 winner Willoughby Court would be horses I’d take out of the meeting to follow for future punting.
TAKE-OUT THREE: The Supreme Novice Hurdle seems sure to throw up stars again: take out Labaik, Melon, River Wylde and the luckless Ballyandy, who set the seal on my fate this week.
GOLD My negatives Djakadam and Cue Card proved well founded and Sizing John beat a 156 horse home. He has time on his side but it panned out as the worst Gold Cup since Synchronised.
COME INTO THE BETDAQ KASBAH..
2.25 Uttoxeter The bookies are desperately in need of money, despite only six winning favourites at Cheltenham all week, so they are offering prices on this novices’ handicap chase, which means Pricewise is tipping and I have to join in to meet the challenge.
He asks you to sign up to 12 firms in order to get a level playing field (98% best-price percentage, he says). I can get a tiny overround of 109% (BETDAQ this morning) with one list of offers! And I know they will only fluctuate with trading.
It means that I am in a punter-friendly zone immediately; anything you back in a low-overround race is value (though some are better value than others). Particularly, if you can knock out the favourite.
In fact, as far as I can tell, the favourite has NEVER won this race, as it stands today!
American can change all that but it’s a worry that he ducked out of his Cheltenham chance. When a trainer downgrades his target, it usually means there’s a problem.
American, Baywing and Hainan are dropped in grade, and a bit of quality usually wins this (only two successful below 11st in the decade)
Rock The Kasbah (8.8 offers) was a Grade-3 winner as a hurdler and has twice before landed back-to-back wins. He could follow up his Chepstow success, as Richard Johnson’s only ride for Philip Hobbs today, both still high on Defi Du Seuil’s Triumph.
2.40 Kempton (Silver Plate) The race is lent some kudos by this week’s exploits of last year’s winner, Might Bite, who took the prestigious RSA Chase on Wednesday.
In fact, his trainer Nicky Henderson has won this for the last two years and now saddles Divine Spear. Huge at 9.8.
3.15 Kempton (Silver Bowl) Romain De Seman, who missed the cut in his chosen race at Cheltenham, is very highly regarded and should take this on his way to a date at Aintree. Offers of 4.9 in a 104% orange are fantastic.
OBEAUX TUNED UP FOR A NATIONAL
3.35 Uttoxeter (Midlands Grand National) This was the preserve of David Pipe for four years running with four different horses (2011-14) but, from his success in only two small-field events from 16 starts, Gevrey Chambertin has beaten just nine horses home as a winner since he was a headline horse for Cheltenham in 2014-15. He was one of the most disappointing nearly horses of that time.
There hasn’t been a Midlands National winner of a double-figure age in 20 years but, despite third in the Welsh National to Native River (Gold Cup placed) and fourth in the Warwick Classic this year, Houblon des Obeaux has slipped to his lowest mark since November, 2013.
Last year’s winner Firebird Flyer meets the third horse home, Cogry, on the same terms, but the fourth, Spookydooky, is 10lb better off.
Spooky was third in the Devon National in February, a well-backed favourite, but unable to cash in on a mark 8lb lower than his last success in November, 2015
Court Frontier won the Cambridgeshire National and is now up 21lb for his two chase successes this year. Final Nudge has a lot of weight for a novice.
Mysteree won the Eider Chase but this comes a bit soon and, on a line through the runner-up, Knockanrawley, has it to do with Houblon des Obeaux in this. I took 20.0 Houblon in a 108% BETDAQ orange.
Gonalston Cloud was runner-up in the Edinburgh National (lost a shoe) but needs the ground to dry out. Goulanes (13.5) has won this before, comes to the race fresh and seems well fancied, down in the weights today.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW
ROMAIN DE SEMAN (3.15 Kempton)
DAQMAN’S BETS
TON-UP (to win 100):
BET 8pts win GOULANES, and 5pts win and place HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (3.35 Uttoxeter)
BULL’S-EYE (to win 50)
BET 6.4pts win and place ROCK THE KASBAH (2.25 Uttoxeter)
BET 5.6pts win and place DIVINE SPEAR (2.40 Kempton)
BANKER
BET 20pts win (nap) ROMAIN DE SEMAN (3.15 Kempton)
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