DAQMAN’S 189-POINT TILT AT EBOR OUTSIDER: Apart from the winner-a-day Daqman Fortune Cookies sequence of Roaring Lion (WON 3-1), Sea of Class (WON 7-4, nap) and Stradivarius (WON 4-11), York has been tough on tipping and punting this week. Daqman’s score against Pricewise of the Racing Post is now 61-22 (plus 81 to minus 87 to single-point level stakes), as he tries to dig out winners today at 29.0, 28.0 and 24.0, including a huge Ebor tilt at BETDAQ value intended to net him 189 points. Today’s headlines:
- STOUTE TARGETS A YORK ONE-TWO
- ‘BLUE’ LOOKS BIG AT MELROSE 24.0
- MURPHY SWITCHES TO GOODWOOD
- MUNTAHAA MY GAMBLE TO WIN 189
STOUTE TARGETS A YORK ONE-TWO
1.50 York (Strensall Stakes) Six winners in the decade have been drawn 1, 2 or 3. David O’Meara has won it twice in the last four years.
But his Lord Glitters has been a bridesmaid (form figures 22223) since winning the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot last October.
That, and valiant efforts in Group company since, have hiked him a stone and made it impossible to go back to handicaps. He’d have to carry 10st 5lb if the same Balmoral were run today!
Zaaki is another who’s improved into Group company without winning but is a three-year-old still unexposed and cheekpieces may keep him straight.
His stable also runs last year’s winner, Mustashry, who was back to form in the last day after a lay-off. I took Zaaki at 9.4 and Mustashry at 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
BLUE LOOKS BIG AT MELROSE 24.0
2.25 York (Melrose Handicap) The Melrose is an Ebor for three-year-olds. And, as we’ll see in the big handicap later on, a wide draw (five out of seven in this) may have an advantage over low-stall crowding.
I remember Mount Athos from the one stall taking a grip on the race up the rail and the difference in this one, of course, is we have potential improvers.
Not even the trainers know which ones: as William Haggis told the Racing Post about Heart of Grace, ‘whether she’s quite mature enough mentally, I don’t know.’
He does know that four or five runs is reckoned the minimum for this; some had had many more.
Berkshire Blue and Blue Laureate were separated by only a head at Ascot and are drawn side by side in 12 and 13, with consistent. Corgi in 14.
Making Miracles and Proschema are likely to take them along (Mekong also front runs but is drawn wide) and the one I see sweeping up down the outside is Blue Laureate, huge at 24.0.
MURPHY SWITCHES TO GOODWOOD
2.40 Goodwood (Ladbrokes Prestige Stakes) Look Around has won from the front and won from behind (so no problem with stall 9 in a smallish field), and may be better educated at this stage after three runs than Antonia De Vega (one race) and Magnetic Charm (two), though their form has been boosted.
Good race, with 0.5 points separating the three leading contenders in the BETDAQ orange. Look Around was 4.6 with Oisin Murphy preferring this ride to York possibles
3.15 Goodwood (Ladbrokes Handicap) Vale Of Kent (7.4 in the BETDA Q orange early mouse) was pipped by a one-off from Medahim here at Goodwood but, the more consistent, made up for it with success back to the CD on the last day, showing that Mark Johnston grit to hold on.
A single-figure stall steals this every time, and track and draw give Vale’s stablemate Lake Volta a big chance, too, despite 29.0 offers.
MUNTAHAA MY GAMBLE TO WIN 189
3.40 York (Ebor Handicap) Nine out of 10 winners came from double-figure draws, an inside berth only once surviving the rails crowding, getting into the leading bunch early. He was one of four in the decade to start at 20-1 or more.
Seven winners out of nine were aged five or six. Six with 9st to 9st 2lb. Five of the winning jockeys were claiming allowances of 3lb (one) and 5lb (four).
Mountain Bell fits those stats, but hasn’t won for nearly two years, is not progressive or, as her trainer says ‘things don’t always go smoothly’. Her form says she needs rain but she’s drawn to suit her style of running, as is My Reward and Time To Study.
Six NH or mixed stables have won, which throws up Stratum, Whisky Sour, Nakeeta (3lb claim) and Saunter, though other Flat yards represented in this dabble in NH occasionally.
Three of those were among the first five in the morning market, with Newbury winner Stratum, the likely favourite, now 10lb higher than when third in the Ascot Stakes, trapped in stall 4, which is a big problem when you are down in trip and need to exert.
Stablemate Whisky Sour, fifth in the Ascot Stakes (2m 4f), is weighted to turn around the placings with Stratum, and was seen at Ascot forcing his way out of the pack at around today’s trip.
Nakeeta, who won the Ebor last year, has been aimed at the double and, better off at the weights, and better drawn, can also reel in the (Newbury) deficit with Stratum.
The race has always been Blakeney Point’s target, and a careful prep and first-time blinkers under a jockey in form, suggest he will be thereabouts but has to be extricated from a low stall.
This also applies to Montaly, coming out of gate seven, and Platitude (in the dreaded coffin box, one stall). Montaly won a Group 2 at this meeting last year and is big at 33.0 with his stable having had a fine summer.
The low-draw will suit freegoing Teodoro but not Crowned Eagle, who likes to lead but has to get across from 19.
If Weekender had been dropped 2lb for the Grand Cup (same trip as today) here in June, as he has been for this Ebor, he would have beaten three-time Group winner, Marmelo.
The ‘hidden horse’ is Muntahaa, stablemate of Weekender. He has raced eight times in Group company since he broke his maiden.
His only handicap was an all-the-way win at Chester in 2016, but he came out of the pack at Royal Ascot to finish third in a Listed over shorter: 28.0 in the BETDAQ orange was all wrong this morning.
VERDICT At one time being trained for the Yorkshire Cup (but overshadowed by his illustrious stablemate Stradivarius), I give Muntahaa as good a chance as Weekender (15.0). I shall have a bit on Blakeney Point despite the draw, with Jamie Spencer the one to do a rails Houdini if one can be done.
If I think 15.0 would be right about Muntahaa, I would stake 7 points to win 100. If I keep that stake at 28.0, I shall win 189 points, the BETDAQ offer in effect giving me an 89% bonus.
DAQMAN BETS
1.50 York (win 30)
BET 6pts win MUSTASHRY
BET 3.5pts win ZAAKI
2.25 York (win 50)
BET 2pts win and place BLUE LAUREATE
2.40 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win (nap) LOOK AROUND
3.15 Goodwood (win 30)
BET 4.5pts win VALE OF KENT
BET 1pt win and place LAKE VOLTA
3.40 York special bet (win 100 but staked as if 15.0)
BET 6.6pts win and place MUNTAHAA
3.40 York (staked to win 30)
BET 3.5pts win BLAKENEY POINT
BET 2pts win and place WEEKENDER
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