BANKERS DOUBLE BACK TO BACK: The luck that makes betting in novice chases so dangerous was on Daqman’s side in one at Ascot yesterday when his banker, Le Mercurey (WON 2-1), was handed the race by a last–fence faller, following up Thursday’s maximum stakes on Bit Of A Puzzle (WON 1-2).
20-1 PLACE IN THE HEADLINES: Daqman made it seven successes in two days, adding to Thursday’s trio with place returns from Minstrel Royal (3rd 20-1) and All Together (2nd 5-1 from 6.4 on BETDAQ) and a Daq Multiples double Le Mercurey with Yanworth (WON 1-3). His headlines were:
MINSTREL PLAY ON STAMINA GROUNDS (3rd 20-1)
MERCUREY IS RISING FOR NICHOLLS (Won 2-1)
THE LADBROKE IS ASCOT PICK: What will make the headlines today as nap and banker alike go for the hat-trick and Daqman lines up his value bets against Pricewise of the Racing Post in the 2.40 Haydock, and the 3.00 and 3.35 Ascot, which includes The Ladbroke hurdle. The current scores are Daqman 12, Pricewise 4 (overall 258-99). His lays are six out of seven, 34 out of 38.
HE’S THE WINNER IN THE LADBROKE
3.35 Ascot (The Ladbroke) A four-year-old has won this only once in recent years and my ABC Guide (see Daqman Archive Thursday), which is based on the stats, quite rightly marked up horses aged five and six, with their score of seven wins from the last nine.
But, in fact, the majority of the four-year-olds to take part had high weights (even as high as Devilment today), yet the age group still had a third last year; the second, third and fourth in 2013; and the winner the year before.
This year they have a pool of seven horses below the 11st watershed, and two in particular are difficult to dismiss.
When Alan King’s highly regarded Winner Massagot scored on the soft here at Ascot a month ago, his trainer thought he would be too fresh to win it, and that the soft ground might not suit. But Winner won majestically.
The form holds up well to scrutiny, since the runner-up Rayvin Black – better off today –had narrowly failed to make all in the Imperial Cup earlier in the year, and Massagot has better ground today.
The other four-year-old who nags away in my mind (so he has plenty of room!) is Zarib. Third to Peace And Co in the trial for the Fred Winter, in which he subsequently finished sixth, he ran well on his reappearance third in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton in November.
He could be a ‘hidden horse’ but the concern if you feel like handing over your hard-earned cash for him is that the Fred Winter form has been badly let down.
Among the higher weights, the Irish will be hard to beat, with Willie Mullins’ Renneti, a Grade-1 novice, second in the Royal Bond. He went close in the Cesarewitch (fourth, beaten a length and a half) and got competitive too late, fourth again, in the Greatwood, won by my Champion Hurdle fancy Old Guard.
On that form, Noel Meade’s Ladbrokes Ireland Hurdle winner and Greatwood third, Waxie’s Dargle, would also be on the premises but he must have it soft. He’ll be a strong saver for me if the sun don’t shine!
VERDICT: I’m standing by Winner Massagot (7.8 offers on BETDAQ as I wrote), expecting Renneti (15.0) to run into a place.
BEACH COULD FOIL BLUE DEBUT
1.15 Ascot Seconds to the subsequent Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle winners in 2014 set Blue Fashion on a pedestal here but his form crashed in the Spring, and he was 28-1 and 20-1 at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.
His position in the BETDAQ market today should give you a clue as to whether Nicky Henderson has another comeback kid back to his best.
But you wouldn’t want to take a short price about a glass horse who hasn’t won since April, 2013, in France and is making his steeplechase debut.
Mala Beach ran some useful races over fences at this time last year though, understandably, coming up short against Don Poli, and would have been challenging Sir Des Champs at Thurles in November had he not fallen at a crucial stage.
He’s a stayer in the making (trainer Gordon Elliott had his eye on the NH Chase at one time) and Davy Russell will be making full use of his stamina. I took 3.6.
1.50 Ascot This is more like La Vaticane’s trip than was Newbury on the last day. She ran really well first time in England, when second at Kempton in the Spring to Theinval, who then won a Grade 3. She was 5.7 in the BETDAQ orange this morning in an open market.
Mon Successeur is a bit of a bridesmaid and is in the shadow of Paul Nicholls moderate form. Ultragold was one of the favourites – he goes so well fresh – when he came down at Cheltenham eight days ago.
Dartford Warbler has taken to fences well at the second attempt but the big danger to La Vaticane may be Malibu Sun, if reproducing his Sandown second, clear of the rest of the field and giving 10lb to the short-head winner.
CRACK WORLD HURDLE CLAIMANT
2.25 Ascot (Long Walk Hurdle) The big test of the Paul Nicholls’ form concerns his young pretender Saphir Du Rheu, the World Hurdle runner-up who was favourite to win November’s Hennessy but was only fifth.
This is his first hurdle since the Cheltenham world championship, and he’s rated a pound higher than four years his senior, Reve De Sivola, who has won this Long Walk three years running but was pipped a neck by Saphir in the Cleeve Hurdle in January.
The spoiler in the rematch could be Colin Tizzard’s Thistlecrack, reckoned by the handicapper to have improved 26lb since the Spring and winner of the stepping-stone to this, the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November, six lengths up on Deputy Dan and with the World Hurdle winner, Cole Harden, only third.
With the doubts lingering about the Ditcheat form, and with Reve de Sivola easy to back this morning, Thistlecrack can strengthen his claims in the Wortd market: 3.1 on BETDAQ for today.
2.40 Haydock (Tommy Whittle Chase) Success, or nearly so, for Final Assault would boost Wakanda in the Silver Cup (3.00 Ascot), after his fourth to that one in the Rehearsal Chase at Newecastle.
But he’s badly in here on Ayr form with Plus Jamais, who will try to make all the running off a featherweight on a suitable occasion for it.
Another boost would be La Vaticane (1.50 Ascot) for O Maoniai in this one. They were separated half a length at Newbury last month.
Wilton Manila is not out of it but, in the heavy ground, I shall take O Maoniai (6.6 offers) and Plus Jamais (14.5) against the field.
WAKANDA A WILLING WESTERNER
3.00 Ascot (Silver Cup) Well though Pendra won the track’s gold cup here in October, he is a glass horse with only five runs on his CV in two years.
Salubrious needs heavy ground. Last year’s winner, The Young Master, is up in the weights, and the runner-up that day, Houblon Des Obeaux, though massively better in, has to bounce back from dire efforts this autumn-winter.
It’s a very hard race but I shall have a bit of win and place on the northern raider, Wakanda. On a line through Virak, he has clearly improved a stone since this time last year. The handicapper thinks it’s more like 24lb.
He’s a really tough Westerner and I took 12.5, wary most of all of Fingal Bay (8.0), if his Hennessy fourth didn’t take too much out of him.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ offers, except bull’s-eye bets and banker settled at SP)
BET 12pts win MALA BEACH (1.15 Ascot)
BET 6.5pts win LA VATICANE (1.50 Ascot)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) THISTLECRACK (2.25 Ascot)
BET 5.5pts win O MAONIAI and 2.2pts win PLUS JAMAIS (2.40 Haydock)
BET 7pts win FINGAL BAY, and 2.5pts win and place WAKANDA (3.00 Ascot)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 7pts win WINNER MASSAGOT, and 2pts win and place RENNETI (3.35 Ascot)
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