BANKER MAKES IT FOUR NAPS UP: Daqman landed his banker, Persuasive (WON 10-11), at Goodwood yesterday, his fourth winning nap out of six in a great week’s tipping:
WON 4-1 Almodovar (nap)
WON 8-5 Knife Edge (nap)
WON 7-4 Zig Zag Girl (nap)
WON 10-11 Persuasive (banker)
16 WINS IN SIX DAYS’ BETTING: Daqman has had 16 wins in the six days, including 11-1, 17-2, 5-1 and 4-1 twice, with two double whammys containing two out of two lays. His feature bets sit at:
Naps 4-6
Bankers 4-8
Fortune Cookies 1-2
Lays (87%) 21 out of 25
Challenge: Daqman 30, Pricewise 9
BE AN O’BRIEN REBEL AND STICK WITH GOLD
Aidan O’Brien writes my ABC guides. Not really, but it has seemed that way this week (see my Tuesday and Wednesday columns), as he shuffled a hand of six in each of the Irish Guineas’ packs.
Finally, he has four – but not the favourite, Ballydoyle – in tomorrow’s 1,000 Guineas, in which Minding now bids for a Classic double inside three weeks. And he has four of only eight declared for this afternoon’s 2,000.
5.40 The Curragh (Irish 2,000 Guineas) Maybe we have a Leicester on our hands here (and I do mean Leicester; not the Lester of the opening Curragh race description), in that no one can believe the supremacy of Galileo Gold.
I reserved my opinion of his chance for today, while they were making noises about the Derby. I said ‘no way’ but, if commonsense prevailed, and he stayed at a mile or so, I would reinstate him as a potential Group winner in my Fortune Cookies. It did. I do so now.
Air Force Blue beat the dual bridesmaid Maasaat much further in last year’s Dewhurst than did Galileo Gold in the Newmarket Guineas. So something went terribly wrong for ‘Blue’ in the Guineas.
Or is this the latest consequence of a continual preparation problem at Ballydoyle that has occasioned the following results:
* Mastercraftsman (5th Newmarket Guineas; won Curragh Guineas)
* Power (17 of 18 Newmarket 2,000; won The Curragh 2,000)
* Qualify (13 of 13 Newmarket 1,000 Guineas; won the Epsom Oaks)
* Roderic O’Connor (11 of 13 Newmarket 2,000; won Curragh 2,000)
* Yesterday (8 of 19 Newmarket 1,000; won Curragh 1,000)
Was ‘Blue’ not ready, or was he overtrained (O’Brien had ‘got underneath’ him).. or maybe it was a problem of ‘air force’?
The colt wore a tongue-tie that day (discarded tonight), suggestive of a breathing problem, and a cross-noseband, an aid to restraint, to ‘calm him down.’
It jogged the memory about the (pointed?) Ballydoyle comment that he was the ‘best two-year-old we ever had.’ But not three-year-old, then? A view seemingly confirmed by Ryan Moore, when he said after Newmarket: ‘He didn’t feel like the same horse as last year.’
If you are a form punter today, you can only be grateful for his presence in creating a price for Galileo Gold, who was 15 lengths in front of him at Newmarket, and you might be more worried about Air Vice Marshal.
The War Front colt – same sire as Air Force Blue – was fourth at Newmarket, despite being absent since last July, prompting the Racing Post race-reader to proclaim: ‘He ran a big race, shaping like a miler through and through.’ How far can he close down Galileo Gold?
With Jim Bolger out of form for most of the trials season, Sanus Per Aquam might surprise to an extent, and Blue De Vega could improve for the step up in trip.
But I see no reason why Galileo Gold can’t do the Guineas double in a situation reminiscent of Cockney Rebel who won both Guineas because there was simply nothing else around at that stage of the season.
KINGS COLE AND STOUTE CLEVER PLANNERS
2.15 Goodwood Wind back the clock to the summer of 2014 and you’ll find Kings Fete going down narrowly here at Goodwood. Later in the year, Berkshire wins a Group 3.
What they have in common, apart from the long absence, are stables in tremendous form. Paul Cole (Berkshire) has suddenly taken off with three winners from his last four starts.
Sir Michael Stoute (Kings Fete) has had 21 winners on turf this year for a 25% strike-rate, and has been proving yet again how good he is at improving ‘forgotten’ horses (I bet he’ll do it with Midterm next year).
I’ll dutch Kings Fete (6.8) and Berkshire (4.5) against exposed types, counting on one of them to bounce back when their yards are at peak. Both are ready: Berkshire ‘100% fit’ and Kings Fete ‘back in training since February and has stood up to the work well.’
3.05 Haydock (Silver Bowl) Who said the old-fashioned handicaps are dead! This race and the 3.25 at Goodwood have a range of 18lb and 21lb respectively.
In both cases, the shrewdie trainer who has sneaked one in at the bottom of the handicap and won them is Mark Johnston, with an 8st 2lb scorer in this in 2013 and an 8st winner of the Goodwood race only last year.
The two races tie in together through the handicap at Newmarket won by Oh This Is Us, who runs in the Goodwood race and Mariee, third at Newmarket, who goes here for Johnston. Mariee is huge in the BETDAQ orange at 28.0.
There are plenty here with chances, including Chief Whip, Garcia and Wild Hacked, and Garcia could be another for Richard Fahey who has won the race twice in the decade.
THIS CHALLENGE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE PLAN
3.25 Goodwood In the three years of the race, the winners have carried 8st, 8st 2lb and 8st 4lb., and have come out of stalls 3 (twice) and 6
Mark Johnston has two at the foot of the handicap this time, off a similar mark to his last year’s winner, Enlace (rated 80).
One of them, Galesburg, plus Haalick, Arab Poet and Zhui Feng, has a double-figure stall, which will throw him wide round the bend or demand that he tuck in behind the cavalry.
Haalick often makes a tardy start, which will leave him with work to do on this track. Zhui Feng has a big chance here on his Guineas prep run (gave weight to a Listed winner) but takes a keen hold and could be in no man’s land from stall 11.
Best drawn of those off 8st 6lb or less are Ian Fleming (1), Oh This Is Us (2), Holy Grail (3), Heraldic (Johnston again in 5) and Noble Peace (8).
Ian Fleming is a flagship for Andrew Balding with the rest of his fleet in the doldrums in a shocking turf season to date of 6-83. The stable has just now gone 30 consecutive winless runners; worse, nine have been placed, so he’s missing strike badly.
What impressed me with the strong-travelling Oh This Is Us (6.6 best BETDAQ offers as I write) when he won at Newmarket is the way he diced and dodged out of trouble, not afraid of runners around him. That’s an essential trait at Goodwood.
Holy Grail should win a race but it’s hard to put money on it today, with his stable yet to reach the frame on turf this year and 0-19 on AW.
Usually seen over 6f, Noble Peace’s form has been franked, and this is the turf course on which he might get the 7f.
Strong Challenge (9.8 on BETDAQ), who last ran in a Group 2, is a classy sort. Hooded today, this aggressive racer is in stall 6, and Godolphin had this event planned for him three months ago.
29.0 NINJAGO CAN JUMP TO IT FROM STALL 1
3.50 York (Spring Sprint) Kimberella, fourth in this last year, has 2lb more and the same tricky draw in 15. Normal Equilibrium, fourth in 2014, has 2lb less and a better stall in 5 (as opposed to 11 that day).
The first two in the two runnings of the race have come from stalls 1, 3, 5 and 8, and the far side was winning everything at the Dante meeting.
I was impressed with Doctor Sardonicus then, and he looks a ‘Spencer ride’ down the outside but, from the one stall, I fancy Ninjago, who goes really well fresh for a stable which hss just struck form, and is massive at 29.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
CASE OF KACHY AS CATCH CAN AT HAYDOCK
4.10 Haydock (Temple Stakes) Yes, since you asked, three-year-olds have won this twice in eight years. They were rated 115 and 117 and had already been Group placed that season.
At 12.5 on BETDAQ early mouse, Kachy has won only a handicap this Spring but he took the Group-3 Molecomb as a juvenile at Glorious Goodwood last July, evealing himself as a right little speedball. Is he good enough off only 109?
The ratings standout is Mecca’s Angel, the Nunthorpe winner, who opened with a Group-3 win a year ago, and now has the required cut in the ground, which goes against Muthmir.
And, despite success for the fifth horse home, Take Cover, yesterday, the Palace House form of Profitable and Waady is being snubbed; both were 10.0 this morning.
4.45 Haydock I couldn’t fancy any of the Channon-de Sousa runners at York but Graham Lee riding for Mick at Haydock must have a big chance of coming late on the 7f winner, Fingal’s Cave (8.0 on Betdaq), who will be suited by the fast pace.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30, except Fortune Cookies, which are to 20pt level stakes)
2.15 Goodwood
BET 8.5pts win BERKSHIRE and 5pts win KINGS FETE
3.05 Haydock
BET 6.5pts win GARCIA, and 1pt win and place MARIEE
3.25 Goodwood
BET 3.4pts win STRONG CHALLENGE and 5.3pts win OH THIS IS US
3.50 York
BET 4pts win DOCTOR SARDONICUS, and 1pt win and place NINJAGO
4.10 Haydock
BET 2.6pts win and place KACHY, and 3.5pts win (stakes saver) MECCA’S ANGEL.
4.45 Haydock
BET 4.2pts win FINGAL’S CAVE
5.40 The Curragh
FORTUNE COOKIE: BANKER BET 20pts win (nap) GALILEO GOLD
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Strong Challenge (3.25 Goodwood), Fingal’s Cave (4.45 Haydock) and Galileo Gold (5.40 The Curragh)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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