CHESTER CUP GOES TO DAQMAN AT 5-1: Winners are his metier! Daqman hit a hat-trick yesterday among eight in Chester week, with nap No 41 of the year plus the Chester Cup hero, going a huge SIXTEEN winners up since March over Pricewise, his Racing Post value-betting adversary (score 16-7). He has two naps up out of the last three.
Daqman: Chester Day 3
WON 5-1 METIER (Chester Cup, BETDAQ 7.7)
WON 13-8 ORAZIO (BETDAQ 3.5)
WON 5-6 POINT LONSDALE (nap, BETDAQ 2.15)
Daqman Chester Day 2
WON 3-1 NYMPHADORA (Kings Lynn 2nd 5-2 same race)
WON 16-5 SAN ANTONIO
WON (2nd 25-1) DARK PINE (win and place)
Daqman Chester Day 1
WON 8-11 SAVETHELASTDANCE (supernap)
WON 9-4 ZIGGY’S PHOENIX
PREVIEW: VICTORIA CUP IN THE MUD: The ground is not what was expected today when entries were made for Haydock – usually soft – for the Swinton Hurdle and Ascot, whose Spring grass is a mush of mud for Victoria Cup day. Daqman analyses the Cup for ground, form and draw, and hopes for the best from offers of 8.2 and 14.0
‘TOTALLY’ DOWN TO THE DRAW?
⭕ 2.40 Ascot (Victoria Cup) Results by stall (10 years): 2, 13, 25, 23, 29, 18, 13, 10, 24, 27. It can really be all or nothing, depending which side holds sway; the 2012 order-in by draw was 2, 1, 5, 8; last year it was 27, 26, 28!
High draw:
Accidental Agent (20) second last year but that was on ‘good’ and he looks up against it today at nine – the last eight winners have been four or five – and by the same token, I couldn’t have Safe Voyage (22), who is 10.
Perotto (21) has won four times, including the Britannia over a mile at Ascot; though all success was on good or firm, he’d been a fine third as a two-year-old in a big–field auction race on soft. Has crashed nearly a stone in the weights and having first run for Roger Varian.
Biggles (23) rose 4lb through the ranks last year – including on the soft – but has not quite cracked it in class 2 the last twice at age six, though lightly raced and might find a bit more.
* Could be pace from Tylos (19) and Biggles. It came from stall 20 last year.
Middle draw:
River Nymph (9) See Fresh and Vafortino.
Orbaan (10) another oldie, well down the field in this a year ago but close fifth in the Balmoral (1m) in the autumn. Winning form on no worse than good to soft.
Fresh (11) An Ascot regular, with form here of 2123401100, including possibly unlucky fourth in this race last year, on ground too quick for him, out of gate 13 when the first three were drawn high. Beat River Nymph and Ropey Guest here in September (good to soft) and may do best later on.
Totally Charming (13) Cracking Spring form in 2022 and six lengths off the Royal Hunt Cup winner.
Shrugged off weights rise to win on heavy in the autumn and hit the front too soon, carrying the high numbers with him when beaten less than three lengths in the Irish Lincolnshire (heavy) in March.
Vafortino (14) won this last year (10lb wrong now) from Accidental Agent, with River Nymph 3rd, Fresh 4th, Ropey Guest 5th, Darkness 7th.
* Vafortino likes to be up there and may try to tuck in just off the rails pace.
Low draw:
Zip (1) Good form on soft-heavy but high in the handicap now, aged seven.
Rebel Territory (2) receiving 7lb when beat Vafortino half a length at Newmarket (good to soft) in April.
Darkness (3) winning form all for Jean-Claude Rouget in France, 2020. Now 6lb lower than when 7th in this race last year.
Ropey Guest (4) fifth last year; twice beaten by Fresh since; best on better ground and draw not ideal.
Spycatcher (6) Horse with bad feet who needs soft ground. Best form clear win at Thirsk (soft) in April, beating hat-trick scorer Mount Athos and last year’s third in today’s race, Escobar.
* Zip likely to take them on but may be short of company.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The centre ground played a big part yesterday but, in this race, they tend to form two groups. So maybe Totally Charming, Fresh and Vafortino will go across to the far side, where Tyros and Biggles could set a good pace. That may leave the low, led by Zip, out on a limb.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 8.2 Totally Charming, 14 Perotto
3.20 MOTTISFONT DARK HORSE
⭕ 1.30 Ascot Nathanael Greene won when fresh but the cheekpieces are removed. Sir Rumi likes the mud but is five now without putting two wins together.
So I’m tempted to a pound on High Fibre, who is bred for stamina and the ground: BETDAQ 5.7. Trainer Harry Fry and jockey Saffie Osborne won the Chester Cup yesterday.
⭕ 2.05 Ascot Group performer Mottisfont reappeared in the Fred Darling and quickly goes for a handicap on ground which is top of the list for conditions required by her sire’s progeny; the dam also produces soft-ground winners.
BETDAQ value 32.0 Mottisfont
HOPE OR HAPPY TRIAL BATTLE
⭕ 3.00 Lingfield (Oaks Trial) The Classic trials switch to AW but the low stalls should be just as potent.
Charlie Appleby, who has Frankie Dettori booked for the Man O’War Stakes on Warren Point (8.07 Belmont), could humble the Ballydoyle runner, Be Happy, in this, with Eternal Hope at BETDAQ 3.9 better bred for AW.
⭕ 3.35 Lingfield (Derby Trial) Appleby also has Military Order standing at attention for the Derby at 7.0 in BETDAQ Sportsbook – the same price as Arrest – after his comfortable Newbury win.
Military Order is brother to the 2021 Derby winner, Adayar. But the royal runner, Circle Of Fire (BETDAQ 5.4), is an Almanzor with near-50% winners to runners for his sire.
Military Order would have to be a supernap at his odds on today and I don’t think that is warranted in a Classic trial.
SWINTON CASH RIDES ON BYKER
⭕ 3.15 Haydock (Swinton Hurdle) The mud is at Ascot and the good ground at Haydock: shum mishtake, surely!
Who has sneaked one in among the lightweights (they usually win this) but well placed for a sound surface.
Washington, placed at Aintree, is from the yard which won it in 2021; Brentford Hope may need it soft; Black Poppy has more to do than at Cheltenham.
But I prefer Byker, second in the old Fred Winter, and made all on a sound surface on the flat at Windsor.
BETDAQ value 5.5 Byker, 10.5 Washington
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Ascot (win 20, nap)
BET 4.25pts win HIGH FIBRE
2.05 Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 1.5pts win and place MOTTISFONT
2.40 Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 7pts win TOTALLY CHARMING
BET 3.75pts win PEROTTO
3.00 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3pts win ETERNAL HOPE
3.35 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 2.25pts win CIRCLE OF FIRE
3.15 Haydock (win 18)
BET 4pts win BYKER
BET 2pts win WASHINGTON
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