DAQMAN IN FULL FLOW WITH FOUR WINNERS: Daqman piled up 67 points profit yesterday with four winners from the six races he bet in, including the one-two in the opener at Chester. The winners were:
WON 2-1 HERE COMES WHEN
WON 11-4 KINGFISHER
WON 11-8 CHOCOLA
WON 2-1 FLOW (nap)
NOW IT’S 18 NAPS UP OUT OF 25: Flow gave him winning nap number 18 from the last 25, including two five-timers, winners at 6-1, 5-1, 5-2 and 2-1 (twice), and eight consecutive winning bankers.
FLAT OUT 29-7 IN FRONT OF PRICEWISE: Here Comes When and Kingfisher gave him two out of two in Pricewise races, taking him ahead of his Racing Post rival 29-7 in the Flat season, 68-19 overall since November 23.
WHERE IT’S ALL HAPPENING TODAY
- Today’s challenge to Pricewise: 1.50 and 3.30 Haydock, 2.55 Lingfield, 3.50 Ascot.
- Today’s outsiders: 1.50 Haydock at 19.0 on BETDAQ; 3.30 Haydock at 11.5; and 3.50 Ascot at 19.0 (twice).
- Today’s nap: 2.05 Ascot
THE QUEEN CAN LAND OAKS-TRIAL PRIZE
1.50 Haydock Four comparative novices have won this in the last six years; two had had two runs, two one, in senior company. Big Hands Harry has had none.
There’s also a warning from Nicky Henderson contained in quotes to the Racing Post form team after one of his hurdle races: ‘Don’t get carried away; he’s a chaser for next season.’
Obviously, he’s unexposed and most of this field look like old drinking pals who have never quite made it in life. What we need to liven up the party is youth, class and quality, or a dark horse.
Class is represented by L’Unique, an excellent third to Quevega in the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. That’s why she’s top of the handicap here, weighed down with her two Saturday shopping bags.
But, granted the class-2 contest at Sandown two weeks’ back was a 7lb lesser race, she carried today’s burden successfully by eight lengths.
Join The Clan is the same age as L’Unique and Big Hands Harry but has had his main chance when beaten at Exeter a month back ( ‘that was his Gold Cup,’ said the yard).
Like Join The Clan, Kris Spin, who is becoming bit of a bridesmaid with his sequence of seconds without getting the main bouquet, is pegged in class 3.
Broadway Buffalo would benefit from a softened surface but has not yet to emerged from novice class with credit. He’s been beaten when held up, beaten when tracking the leaders and beaten when sent to the front.
Firebird Flyer, though he looks a standout lightweight, has in fact carried more than this when failing in both recent class-2 attempts. And they were chases, not hurdles. He was beaten a total of 369 lengths in his last three hurdles.
No, the young blood and the dark horse rolled into one must be Majolika, who has gradually stepped up from class-4 second to class-3 third and class-2 runner-up, always running on at the end of 2m or 2m 4f.
VERDICT: I’ve made no secret of my high regard for Tim Easterby as a master trainer of handicappers: that means identifying a race well in advance and getting the horse ‘well in’ and at peak for it.
The going needs to hold at good/good to soft for Majolika. If it does, he’s crying out for a bet (19.0 on BETDAQ this morning).
Most likely outcome of the race, rain or shine, is that L’Unique is placed: again, 9.8 was a huge offer this morning for a mare of her quality..
Big Easy could bounce back and Big Hands Harry belie his trainer’s comments, but my two are super fit for purpose. Just hope rain isn’t a spoiler.
2.05 Ascot Four-year-olds are three from three in this, and I’m playing up my Flow of winnings with Hamelin, from the same stable, of Lady Cecil. Sir Henry trained the full brother, Native Ruler, to race at Group level.
Pied-piper Pricewise doesn’t have a tip in this, more’s the pity, so nothing to help Hamelin’s odds. But, if something ‘real’ does come at us in the betting, back it as a saver.
2.20 Lingfield Oaks Trial Midday who took this in 2009, was afterwards winner of six Group 1s, though only second and third in the Epsom and Curragh Oaks.
Casual Smile is the daughter of Casual Look, who won the Epsom Oaks in 2003, and she has the form in the book, runner-up to the current Epsom favourite, Taghrooda.
Sir Michael Stoute saddles the well-related Queen’s Prize, owned by Her Majesty, and Ralph Beckett, who has farmed this trial, runs two, of which the Dalakhani grey Moonrise Landing appeals most.
VERDICT: Casual Smile still has to break her maiden so I’m tempted to dutch the two other big players against her, 5.2 Queens Prize and 7.4 Moonrise Landing.
2.55 Lingfield Derby Trial Aidan O’Brien bids to continue his clean sweep of the week’s colts’ trials this week with two chances here before saddling Wonderfully in tomorrow’s French 1,000 Guineas (not that he ever saddles them unwonderfully!)
His winner of this a year ago, Nevis (not neves to rouf but 9-4 on favourite) hasn’t been seen since and the runner-up is a class-2 handicapper. So it doesn’t take much.
It would be most unusual to see exposed colts score – Mekong River (penalized), Hartnell, Red Galileo, Signposted, Snow Sky – with past winners showing two, three, four races at the most, on their CV at this stage.
The Coolmore-Ballydoyle axis must have enjoyed Blue Hussar’s victory the first time he went to war and won his maiden from way back on soft ground.
John Gosden’s Sea The Stars colt, Munjaz, looks progressive, and Sudden Wonder has not been beaten when they’ve been serious with him.
Snow Sky and Double Bluff (the only one here not entered in the Derby and bred for 2m) disappointed when tried in the Pattern last year and their being placed behind Western Hymn at Newbury puts them four lengths (that’s up to 10lb) off Classic form if a line through the Greenham is any good.
VERDICT: John Gosden has already beaten Double Bluff and Snow Sky with Western Hymn, who goes next for the Dante. How does Munjaz compare?
Well, officially he’s 13lb to make up in the three weeks since he won a Newmarket maiden, but two horses well behind him there have won since and he’s sure to improve.
There was a big swing in the market to Orchestra when he came out best for Ballydoyle in the Chester Vase and the betting will tell us if there’s a mover and a shaker again today.
It’s all guesswork at this stage but I’ll be glad if it’s the Montjeu colt Blue Hussar – perfectly bred for this – having taken 7.2 on BETDAQ this morning, as a first position.
3,15 Ascot There’s not a move against Ribbons (yet) and the form book says that she should be favourite, though this is her level (she hasn’t been up to it in Listeds), and I don’t want to bet double-figure stakes today with the going in a state of flux.
3.30 Haydock (Swinton Hurdle) Tony McCoy is let off Coffee by J P McManus to ride last year’s winner of this, Barizan, off an 8lb higher mark on 134, which is actually a bonus, his having had no chance off 148 in the Scottish Champion Hurdle limited handicap.
He’s a quirky sort and has a bundle of aids (tongue-tie and blinkers) but has won six times for McCoy and could be back at peak after a some gentle races since recovery from injury.
Barizan was still out of sorts when well behind Coffee, second to Sea Lord at Market Rasen last summer. But Barizan’s trainer knows about Sea Lord close up; his other runner today, Life And Soul, ran up to that one at Kempton in October.
As I Am could take them along but has a lot of weight for a novice. Dubawi Island has been given a better break by the handicapper but is another who likes to be up there, and that makes him vulnerable to a finisher.
And the link between novice form and the top-rankers is the grey Vibrato Valtat (5.8 on BETDAQ), the ‘moral’ at Sandown when, finishing well, he just failed to get to the first two, giving them weight, in a very slowly run race.
He had behind him that day Swing Bowler, who finished in front of Ifandbutwhynot, Montbazon and Barizan in that Scottish Champion Hurdle.
VERDICT: Still not convinced about my 11.5 BETDAQ bet on Barizan? Only 10th in the County hurdle, you say. Well take a closer look at that race. He was hampered before the last when right there with a chance, and is now 7lb better with the third horse, Montbazon.
3.50 Ascot (Victoria Cup) You could say that there has been no winner of this at 9st 1lb and above for nine years, since Mine (2004).
True, but misleading: not Trends at all, Mr Racing Post man, I’m sorry. Last year, for instance, 9st was the top weight and the year before that only three horses carried more than that 9st 1lb.
But we have to cut down the size of this feild somehow: four and five year olds won seven on the trot and are overdo for a win; six out of 10 winners had single-figure draws and there was only one successful in the decade in a stall higher than 16.
But I can’t have AW-only winner Georgian Bay or sprinter Flyman (placed at 7f only on firm); Purcell has plenty of weight; Bronze Angel, Brownsea Brink and Burn the Boats may not like the rain.
VERDICT: If in doubt, look for a touch of class. Don’t Bother Me, seventh in the Jersey Stakes on this course, came from Pattern-racing in Ireland, to run fourth to Glen Moss on his first run back.
He’s down 11lb on his official mark that day at Royal Ascot and is a price this morning, 19.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
Don’t Call Me has a good chance on fitness and form but is hard to win with and I prefer Heaven’s Guest, also 19.0, who beat a whole bunch of these on good to soft over CD in October.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each horse staked to win 20 points; therefore, if you divide 20 by the points nominated for each bet, you know roughly the offers Daqman took this morning).
BET 2.2pts win and place L’UNIQUE, and 1.1pts win and place MAJOLIKA (1.50 Haydock)
BET 7pts win (nap) HAMELIN (2.05 Ascot)
BET 4.7pst win QUEEN’S PRIZE and 3.1pts win MOONRISE LANDING (2.20 Lingfield)
BET 3.2pts win BLUE HUSSAR (2.55 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win VIBRATO VALTA and 2pts win and place BARIZAN (3.30 Haydock)
BET 1.1pts win and place on each DON’T BOTHER ME and HEAVEN’S GUEST (3.50 Ascot)
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