DAQMAN SATURDAY HEADLINES: Ain’t Nobody like trainer Kevin Ryan for plotting an Ayr Gold Cup strike: he’s won it five times. Ain’t Nobody like Daqman for spotting the plotting: he gets big odds winners in sequence: 115 points profit last week, 81.50 this week.. up to yesterday. He tries to get back on track with these Saturday headlines:
HAGGAS CAN BIN THEM ALL
NOBODY DOES IT BETTER..
INSTINCT IS FOR MONTASSIB
CASTLE COVE THE CUP PICK
THUNDER A STONE IN HAND
HAGGAS CAN BIN THEM ALL
⭕ 2.25 Ayr (Silver Cup): Results by stall in Ayr sprints yesterday: 4-3-8 and 6-2-3. Then came the Bronze Cup when 14 beat 16! Clear as mud, and mud is what you’ll get at Ayr today.
That draw lesson for today’s Silver is there for all to see in past results of the race: some 70% of winners were drawn between 2 and 11 but three in the decade came down the nearside out of 22, 23 and 27.
ABC of soft-heavy winners: Aberama Gold, Binhareer, Candy but more to come and, in fact, it’s easier to list those without soft-ground success: Fivethousandtoone, Righthere Rightnow, Rousing Encore, Silky Wilkie, Space Cowboy, Sudden Flight, Westmorian.
In a slog like today’s, I prefer a deep-going horse that’s won beyond 6f, and the best of them seem to be drawn high and have the best recent form: Hugo Palmer’s Nariko (18) and Wiliam Haggas with Binhareer (19).
Binhareer (Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.4 taken) is a lightly-raced improver who stepped up in grade the last day at Ascot and gave the impression he would have won on deeper ground.
On form lines with Commanche Falls, Nariko would probably win the Gold an hour or so later! BETDAQ 6.4.
NOBODY DOES IT BETTER..
⭕ 3.35 Ayr (Gold Cup): A York one-two in August (firm ground) of Northern Ticker from Commanche Falls, with Two Tribes fourth, less than a length covering them all, now has the beaten pair better with the winner. All are drawn high today: 19, 16, 18
Two Tribes and Strike Red (now in 20) were one-two in the Stewards Cup (good to soft), with Run Boy Run (6), a 7f winner, and Twilight Calls (4) fourth and fifth.
Strike Red won the York Sprint Trophy last October on soft but is 19.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
The hidden horses are Ain’t Nobody and Seven Questions (stall 23), 12lb down the handicap since the Spring with Kieran Shoemark booked. BETDAQ 98.0
Ain’t Nobody (out of the one stall), second in the Nunthorpe, is different class on that form. Nobody does this race better than Kevin Ryan. BETDAQ 17.5.
INSTINCT IS FOR MONTASSIB
⭕ 1.30 Newbury: Older horses set up a sequence in this until three-year-olds took over and won four out of five, with only William Haggas breaking their run.
Haggas, 128 winners this year, plays an ace in each suit today: Montassib (Cieren Fallon), the older horse, is joined by Tom Marquand on three-year-old First Instinct (BETDAQ 17.5).
Fifth in the British Champions Sprint last time he ran, Montassib preps for another go at the big October prize.
Rumstar beat Shagraan (3rd) and Kerdos (5th) at Sandown in the Coral Charge in July.
CASTLE COVE THE CUP PICK
⭕ 2.05 Newbury (Autumn Cup): Unless ‘they’ have got it all wrong in the Met office, the ground won’t be as bad as the mud that handed the prize two years running to Not So Sleepy, aged 11 and then 12.
That’s how much the going matters. Today the soft side of good will boost Beyerlebeyi, Castle Cove, and Lieber Power, who was 6th last year and 3rd to Beylerbeyi in August but now 6lb better off.
Stressfire, too, likes some cut in the ground but he’s been well hiked up the handicap, and my first choice is Castle Cove, staying on over shorter as if this trip has been his optimum all along. BETDAQ 4.8 taken.
THUNDER A STONE IN HAND
⭕ 3.15 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) Geoff Lewis, the page boy at the Waldorf who won the Derby on Mill Reef, is honoured in this famous two-year-old test won in recent years by Queen Anne record-holder Ribchester.
The same Yorkshire stable won the race again last year and Kevin Ryan’s Gimcrack runner-up, Rock On Thunder, could take the prize North again today.
He is 108 rated, a stone or so higher than most of his rivals in a race for short-priced winners, with just one or two exceptions. BETDAQ 3.35.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.30 Newbury (win 30, win 25)
BET 6pts win MONTASSIB
BET 1.5pts win FIRST INSTINCT
2.05 Newbury (win 20)
BET 5pts win CASTLE COVE
2.25 Ayr (win 22)
BET 5pts win BINHAREER
BET 4pts win NARIKO
3.15 Newbury (win 14, nap)
BET 6pts win ROCK ON THUNDER
3.35 Ayr (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 3pts win AIN’T NOBODY
BET 2.75pts win STRIKE RED
BET 0.60pts win SEVEN QUESTIONS
plus 3.4pts place at 8.4 (four places)
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