DAQMAN’S TWO OUT OF THREE: Daqman, the legend, landed two out of three yesterday, despite the loss of the main meeting at Sandown, which is also cancelled today. Daqman switches to Ayr and tries another double whammy (two out of three so far), opposing a Richard Johnson favourite.
WON 11-8 LEGENDS RYDE (13 points Friday profit)
WON 6-5 PRES
DAQMAN NH ACCOUNTS UPDATE
📈 Daqman 32, Pricewise 16 (+323.40 to -11.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets: 38% (+267.00 from 13-34) staked to win 50
📈 Bulls-eye naps: 0% (-19.00 from 0-2) (2019: 47% +249 from 8-17)
📈 All Daily Naps 46% (+134.57 from 51-111) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Supernaps 53% (+40.02 from 14-26) 20pt stakes at SP
📈 Fortune Cookies 44% (+11.88 from 4-9) 20pt stakes at SP
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL SHOCK: BETDAQ alone provided a value choice for the Supreme Novice Hurdle, says Daqman, after the bloggers descended on a suggestion by trainer Gordon Elliottt that Envoi Allen could switch from the Ballymore. Today’s headlines:
🔹 ENVOI ALLEN SUPREME SWITCH?
🔹 ASSIMILATION TO OUTFOX THEM
🔹 MARK HAS A HIDDEN ‘DIAMOND’
🔹 5.0 EMMA BEGS TO BE BACKED..
ENVOI ALLEN SUPREME SWITCH?
Is Shish kebabbed? A stunning suggestion by Gordon Elliott at a Cheltenham preview night in London opened up the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham next Tuesday. At a stroke, Shishkin was no longer in guaranteed pole position.
Elliott will walk the course on Sunday morning but last night declared he was likely to switch the Ballymore favourite Envoi Allen to the Supreme, because of the amount of rain the track has absorbed.
Elliott pointed out that six of Envoi Allen’s seven wins were at 2m and he wasn’t sure that the 2m 5f Ballymore ‘slog’ was right for him at this stage.
Bookmakers quickly grouped Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Asterion Forlonge around the 3-1 mark.
That made BETDAQ exchange backers winners all round, with offers of 4.5 Shishkin, 5.3 Asterion Forlonge and 5.5 Envoi Allen giving the Supreme the appearance of a value debate rather than bloggers’ hysteria.
It’s been near impossible to find ante-post bets this year, with trainers trying to get so many good horses into the right Cheltenham races, leaving them in until the week itself, in a winter when heavy ground has decided the form.
ASSIMILATION TO OUTFOX THEM
1.35 Wolverhampton (Lincoln Trial) They try and fail most years, whether going on to the Lincoln Handicap or the Spring Mile. But winners of this trial, Lowther (7th in 2011) and Zwayyan (7th last year), got nearest to a result in the Lincoln proper.
They started 10-1 and 11-1 at Doncaster, attracting backers with this early success behind them. Don’t be fooled.
In today’s heat, money has always talked: only one winner was a double-figure SP; five favourites or second favourites won. Older horses (over the age of 6) didn’t get a look-in.
Fox Power has form figures of 132 at Wolver, as he’s progressed from an 81 class-5 novice to a 99-rated class-2 runner-up.
Had to give 3lb to Via Serendipity when half-length second here the last day and now receives 6lb, which should swing it for him.
He’s also handicapped better off with the third and fourth that day, Arcanada and Another Touch. I took 3.5 BETDAQ offers.
Red Bond has won only in class 4 and 5, and it’s doubtful the step up in trip will suit Rathbone. Nonios has been raised to 90 but is really only static (on 93 last Spring). Kasbaan is high in the handicap.
That leaves Assimilation as the danger to Fox Power, far too big at 18.5 on BETDAQ. Delete his Meydan efforts (but give him a bonus point for fitness acquired there), and you can’t ignore a Wolver winner in class 5 and class 4 who improved to win a class 2 at Chelmsford in December, yet carries only 8st 8lb against Via Serendipity’s 9st 10lb.
MARK HAS A HIDDEN ‘DIAMOND’
2.10 Wolverhampton El Hombre (slow away) was beaten little more than a length at level weights by Desert Doctor in this last year. Gets 7lb now.
But it’s doubtful whether he can turn around three-and-a-half lengths on recent Kempton form with Treacherous (Concierge third). A 6lb swing doesn’t seem enough over this 6f but he’s 8lb better with Concierge.
Treacherous goes for a hat-trick under Jack Mitchell, now switched from his beloved Kempton (17 races there!) and up in grade.
I shall try Ryan Moore’s ride, Embour, who finished close up at the business end of both Portland Handicap and Ayr Gold Cup. BETDAQ offers of 5.8 early mouse.
2.45 Wolverhampton Moore is also on Urban Icon in this Listed race, his second of two rides, both for Richard Hannon, this one fourth in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, same trip as today’s.
Hannon is very in and out just now and Urban Icon has won only novice races (21 months back) and hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since July.
York specialist Gulliver, winner of the Coral Sprint there in the autumn, is up 10lb and has to find more aged six. Cardsharp was third in this race last year.
Habub has to translate his smart Chelmsford form to this easier surface, with first-time hood to help.
Marie’s Diamond (BETDAQ 11.0) and Blown By Wind are Lincoln Handicap outsiders for Mark Johnston. I have ‘Diamond’ in mind for my Flat-start Early Birds.
Gritty and determined in the Johnston mould and last season was regarded as ‘one for next year’. Well, next year’s here!
5.0 EMMA BEGS TO BE BACKED..
4.15 Ayr All credit to him yesterday, scoring a win and two seconds from a quartet of donkeys; now can Richard Johnson lift the favourite Aero Majestic and give Gordon Elliott a good omen for Cheltenham?
The Points form book says not, as Aero Majestic tries his first handicap hurdle in deep ground at Ayr. His success has come only on good ground. Form with soft or heavy in the going return: 000003P0.
Emma Beag’s Ayr record is 11 (still standing), on good to soft and heavy. The mare was eased at the finish when beating Wind Of Hope over the CD the last day (yet is a pound better off here).
I remember her seemingly disappoint at Catterick on New Year’s Day but the one that beat her, Mamoo, went on to complete a hat-trick (giving in the process form lines through Border Victor that further boost the 5.0 BETDAQ offer Emma Beag).
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.35 Wolverhampton (bull’s-eye target: win 20, then win 50 place 10)
BET 8pts win FOX POWER
BET 2.85pts win and place ASSIMILATION
2.10 Wolverhampton (win 20)
BET 4pts win EMBOUR
2.45 Wolverhampton (bull’s-eye target, win 50, win 10)
BET 5pts win MARIE’S DIAMOND
BET 3.3pts win URBAN ICON
4.15 Ayr (win 20)
BET 5pts win (nap) EMMA BEAG
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