23.0 AND 20.0 CUP BETS COULD EARN GOLD AND SILVER AT AYR: The Ayr Gold and Silver Cups today feature bull’s-eye bets from Daqman at 20.0 and 23.0 but by then he will know the fate of his nap in the Doonside Cup, his opening bet today.
DAQMAN 21 WINNING STRIKES CLEAR OF PRICEWISE: Leading Pricewise into the day 53-32, Daqman also finds value offers at Newbury under the following headlines for the day:
GLEN’S CLASS RATES THE NAP
23.0 TOP BOOKING FOR TINTO
PLAY FORM ACE KING OF CLUBS
20.0 FOR FIVETHOUSANDTOONE
FOLLOW THE MANACCAN MONEY
GLEN’S CLASS RATES THE NAP
⭕ 1.55 Ayr (Doonside Cup) Jim Goldie, who had a one-two in the Bronze Cup yesterday, has dropped Euchen Glen down to his last winning level and distance.
The eight-year-old won four in a row at Ayr (June 2016 – June 2018), and subsequent Group-3 strikes at Newbury, Sandown and York has him top-rated here.
He was fourth in this Doonside Cup last year when Addeybb, from a stone higher in the ratings, landed a gamble. There’s nothing of that ilk against him today.
Juan Elcano has won only at Listed level this year (Royal Ascot) and, when beaten a head in a Group 2 at York, was in a small field and the winner that day was also a Listed-only winner in more than two years.
Joan De Montalban was runner-up in the Italian Derby, which has rarely meant very much since Ribot!
The rest of the field is made up of handicappers, the best of them probably Maydanny but he seems set alight only by Goodwood.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 4.9 Euchen Glen
23.0 TOP BOOKING FOR TINTO
⭕ 2.30 Ayr (Silver Cup) Magical Spirit made all from gate 4 last year and has the same stall again but off a 6lb higher mark.
After wind surgery at the start of the year, he recovered his form at Ascot last month, beaten just a head in the Shergar Cup Dash. He was prepped for Gold today but missed the cut.
Magical Spirit ensured that last year’s money went to the low draw (four of the first five) and he seems certain to have early company today from Soldier’s Minute (6), who was fourth in last year’s Gold Cup when 6lb higher, and Blackrod (stall 10), who holds Royal Scimitar on Newmarket form.
Tinto (out of 7), who won at Newmarket off 100 some 14 months back, comes up from deepest Sussex with Paul Mulrennan booked. Hidden horse, down 10lb.
Stalls 20, 21, 23 and 26 have won this in the decade at SPs up to 33-1, and this suggests chances for the Bronze Cup winner of 2019, Music Society (stall 18 today), the lightly raced Bickerstaffe (17), Total Commitment (24), who has won at 7f, and last year’s winner, Golden Apollo (stall 19 and 3lb lower today).
BETDAQ VALUE 9.0 Magical Spirit, 23.0 Tinto
PLAY FORM ACE KING OF CLUBS
⭕ 3.25 Newbury King Leonidas, disappointing favourite for the 2020 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, makes a belated return to catch the easy surfaces this autumn.
He’s won first run after a break before but has to give a stone and more to last-day winning three-year-olds, King Of Clubs, Mo’assess and Injazati.
You are backing class-5 novice winner Mo’assess on potential; both he and Injazati are unexposed but probably need rain.
The runner-up in King Of Club’s Sandown win has scored since and, before that, he was third to a subsequent Group-2 winner, with the second horse home, Foxes Tales, winner of a Group 3 at Haydock and a big threat to Al Aasy in the 2.50 on this card today.
Straight Of Hormuz won at this time last year and was third in the John Smith’s Cup in July; Dawaam has never won on turf; Further Measure is up in trip and up in grade; Sam Cooke’s target is the November Handicap.
BETDAQ value 5.9 King Of Clubs
20.0 FOR FIVETHOUSANDTOONE
⭕ 3.40 Ayr (Gold Cup) Only one seven-year-old has won in 40 years and, apart from that rare success (which was in 1993 off 9st 6lb), no winner over the age of four has carried 9st 4lb or higher.
Such stats make the odds against old favourites Gulliver, Mr Lupton and Summerghand very much longer than their morning offers.
And they also throw fear into backers of the favourite Great Ambassador (4-9-9 with 5lb penalty).
I’m also searching the records to find a winner in Bronze, Silver or Gold from stall one, yet Great Ambassador has fronted the market since the draw was made.
Great Ambassador is also 10lb higher than when beaten by Commanche Falls and Gulliver into third in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, badly drawn then, too.
Despite all of this a confident Ed Walker claims his Ambassador is a Groip horse in a handicap.
There was money overnight with the bookies for Fivethousandtoone (out of stall 6), better off with both the winner, Great Ambassador, and the fourth, Gulliver, on their form in a small-field Listed at York, when he lost a shoe.
Fivethousandtoone was second in the Mill Reef and faded only in the closing stages behind St Mark’s Basilica in the Dewhurst last term.
Also low drawn is Count d’Orsay (out of 4), my tip for the Portland when he was third. It’s the final half-furlong that may catch him out again but he’s a big offer for a place.
BETDAQ value 25.0 Count d’Orsay, 20.0 Fivethousandtoone, 5.9 Great Ambassador
FOLLOW THE MANACCAN MONEY
⭕ 4.00 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) I warned earlier in the week that I was looking for a price about Dhabab, now that the form has been raised on a pedestal.
Dhabab took the lead on the far side two out in the Superlative Stakes at the July Meeting but the centre ground was faster and so was Native Trail! Favourite that day, Dhabab was still only beaten by just a length and a half, though clearly a pace horse, and will be suited by the furlong drop back in trip for the Mill Reef.
Native Trail took the form to Group-1 level when he beat Point Lonsdale and one of Dhabab’s erstwhile Mill Reef opponents, Ebro River, in the National Stakes at The Curragh on Sunday.
The money with the bookies has been for Manaccan, whose ready victory on the July Course was double boosted by success since for the second and third.
BETDAQ value 3.75 Dhabab, 15.0 Manaccan
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.55 Ayr (win 30, nap)
BET 7pts win EUCHEN GLEN
2.30 Ayr (win 50 bull’s-eye bets, 10 a place)
BET 6.25pts win MAGICAL SPIRIT
BET 2.75pts win and 2.25pts place TINTO
3.25 Newbury (win 30)
BET 6pts win KING OF CLUBS
3.40 Ayr (win 50, win 10)
BULL’-S-EYE BET 2.5pts win FIVETHOUSANDTOONE
BULL’S-EYE BET 2pts win COUNT D’ORSAY
BET 2pts win GREAT AMBASSADOR
4.00 Newbury (win 30, win 10)
BET 2pts win MANACCAN
BET 3.5pts win DHABAB
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
