TIPPING KING: 7-1 DAQMAN WINNER WAS 10.5 ON BETDAQ: Daqman, determined to follow up his 10-1 (twice) and 9-1 winners earlier in the week, came good again yesterday with Laffan (WON 7-1 from 10.5 on BETDAQ) and Rocket Bob (WON 5-1) among three successes on the day. The neck defeat of his nap cost him a 28-1 treble.
CLASSIC KING: IS THIS THE GUINEAS WINNER? Kingman’s price for the 2,000 Guineas of 2014 is ‘theatre of the absurd’, according to trainer John Gosden. Today he meets another easy maiden winner, Music Theory, and they are neck and neck in the ratings.
VALUE KINGS: THAT’S BETDAQ! With tips from Daqman at 33.0, 21.0, 17.5, 14.0 and 12.0 this morning, BETDAQ retains its crown as the nonpareil value market in Saturday racing.
Your bets at Beverley, Chester and Sandown could all stall at the start. The draw has a massive bias if previous results are any guide and, in all cases, you need to bet, hedge or save, in the low numbers, with high stalls a potential for lays. But.. (there’s always a ‘but’ isn’t there)!
2.05 Sandown Results by stall of the last two renewals of this race on a sound surface: 1-3-2 and 1-5-4. But yesterday, as sometimes happens, they went off too fast and two who were slow away, Rocket Bob and The Strig, came storming down the outside to finish 1-2 from stalls 8 and 13.
Lucky winner of this Sandown opener with the draw in his favour last year was trainer Tony Carroll (Edge Closer from stall 1), who’s done it again today with Tidal’s Baby gifted gate two. Edge Closer is now in 7.
I’m not going to spend stakes on three or four horses this morning. I’m going to take an early position on Lupo d’Oro (a huge 17.5 on BETDAQ), who did that trick of a strong run out wide when he won over today’s course and distance in June.
That was class 4 but he suggested improvement (he’s just four years old) when only two lengths off the winner in an 18-runner class-2 at Ascot the following month. Ignore 7f run last time out.
2.20 Chester At Chester yesterday, only one winner came from a stall higher than 6, and it can send you round the bend looking for horses that have the speed and jockeys with the brains to overcome the ‘impossible draw.’ As did Franny Norton in this last year.
In effect, he won two races on Ballista: first the race to get to the front from a wide draw out near the city wall (stall 14), then the dash down the straight. But he did it four lengths! And she won again here in the Spring.
I’m staying with the outsiders, hoping Captain Dunne (14.0 as I write) can bounce back to form, dropped 22lb since he last scored. His trainer has just landed me super-value BETDAQ bets with Laffan (WON 7-1) – at Chester yesterday – and First Class Favour (WON 9-1) on Wednesday. So he owes me nothing.
2.30 Beverley Bullet Three-year-olds won four in a row (2007-2010) but the key to this is the draw: in four of the last five years, the winner has come from stalls 1 (twice), 2 and 4.
Grand old boy Borderlescott won it from the one stall last season, and has got it again today. Interesting that the horse we talked about in the last race at Chester, Ballista, is here giving weight to Borderlescott.
But, if the draw and the nature of the today’s tricky sprint tracks at Beverley, Chester and Sandown, mean anything at all, Ballista has a huge task. A natural front-runner, he is drawn in the Esher car-park in stall 13.
And Beverley is no Chester. It has a very tough finish. At least we know Ballista has the stamina to win over further. But altogether a tricky ride for Robert Winston: how and when to use this horse’s speed.
Masamah (in stall 11), whom Ballista beat at Chester in May, Baileys Jubilee, York Glory (stall 4), Excelette and Tangerine Trees, all drop down to a handicap from the pattern.
The young improver Excelette (11.0 on BETDAQ) is preferred to Abbaye-winning stablemate Tangerine Tress, now aged eight, but York Glory has the better draw.
2.40 Sandown (Solario Stakes) Last big winner out of this was Raven’s Pass (Breeders Cup). Now here’s Kingman from the same John Gosden stable at Newmarket and already 5-1 favourite for the 2014 Guineas. ‘Absurd,’ says Gosden. ‘Absurd,’ say I.
His dam won the 1,000 Guineas, and Kingman, who has entries in all the big juvenile ‘classics’, won his Newmarket maiden (7f) six lengths and five lengths.
But Kingman goes into today’s Solario an odds-on favourite when not even the top-rated colt. Officially, runaway nine-lengths Newmarket winner Music Theory (also at 7f) has the highest mark with 105. Unofficially, they are joint top with the Racing Post.
Lines through the horses they beat put Kingman between 100 and 111 and Music Theory around 103 but both are ‘plus’ horses in the time-honoured Timeform scale of things. In other words, any amount of improvement may be forthcoming. Or one or both could go backwards.
2.55 Chester Three-year-olds are going for a four-timer in this but their seeming best ammunition looks muzzled by the draw. Another black mark for Correspondent (in 11) is his weight; no winner of this in the decade has carried more than 9st 2lb.
In fact, only 2-10 have broken through the 9st barrier and that pair also beat the double-figure draw taboo, managing to win from stalls 12 and 14.
So we can’t write off Correspondent altogether and, after all, it was Chester with cut in the ground that saw his latest win, over course and distance, though that’s hiked him 7lb for his trouble.
I’m surprised Es Que Love hasn’t been to Chester before: railing round here could keep his concentration. He owes me nothing since, somewhere among his 14 consecutive ‘so near but yet so far’ defeats, I’ve come to regard him as a danger to my wallet.
At 7.6 this morning, this will be last-chance saloon for Es Que Love with many a punter. That was also the case for the ranks of backers when Enrol and Ayaar both failed to get much purchase from first-time visors at Pontefract and Chester respectively.
3.15 Sandown The Stoute yard farms this race: the beady-eyed knight has won it three times in seven years, and obeissance to Sir Michael could again be effected today by Integral.
Integral was impressive over CD in May but Ryan Moore had an appalling ride at Goodwood, hemmed in from the coffin-box stall one.
That race – the Group 1 Nassau – was a massive step up in class for only her third race, and an indication of the way she’s regarded by old beady eyes.
If this race had come straight after Royal Ascot, when Ladys First ran up to the ultra-smart Duntle in the Windsor Forest, I might have been a worried Integral man.
Third that day was Sir Michael’s Dank, so he should know where he stands. But more relevant may be Ladys First’s continued failure to get her head in front, a bridesmaid second at Pontefract and, still holding a sad bouquet, third at York.
3.30 Chester Front-runner Bite Of The Cherry is ideally drawn (in 1) as a bet-and-lay at 33.0 on BETFDAQ this morning but the roan filly is unlikely to last the pace against Listed winners Tempus Fugit (long absence) and Sun Central.
Sun Central has gone up and up in the handicap but weight has less effect railing round here for a horse that can keep its momentum on the tight track. And he won at Chester last season.
3.50 Sandown Gabrial The Great (8.6 this morning) is reweighted with a chance of reversing York placings with Sennockian Star but Mark Johnston’s ‘Star’ has been out of the first two only once in 14 starts!
Proud Chieftaim (21.0 on BETDAQ), who suffered a slow-run race at Newmarket last time out, comes out well in this on a line through Danchai and has jockey-of-the-moment James ‘Kingman’ Doyle booked.
Whispering Warrior must come into out – four out of four under Jim Crowley before being hampered at Goodwood – and 12.0 this morning is plain wrong. Danchai could bounce back. Fanny May. Then again, she may not.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.2pts win and place LUPO D’ORO (2.05 Sandown)
BET 1.4pts win and place CAPTAIN DUNNE (2.20 Chester)
BET 3.7pts win YORK GLORY and 2pts win EXCELETTE (2.30 Beverley)
BET 3pts win ES QUE LOVE (2.55 Chester)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) INTEGRAL (3.15 Sandown)
BET 5.4pts win SUN CENTRAL (3.30 Chester)
BET 3.2pts win SENNOCKIAN STAR, 2.6pts win GABRIAL THE GREAT, 1.8pts win WHISPERING WARRIOR and 1pt win PROUD CHIEFTAIN (3.50 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 6pts win double KINGMAN (2.40 Sandown) and INTEGRAL (3.15 Sandown) and 2pts win treble the same two with ES QUE LOVE (2.55 Chester)
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