50% STRIKE RATE WITH BANKERS: Daqman’s bankers stand at six out of 12 after he moved all in with some ‘Spatial awareness’ yesterday. About time, says Daqman; my target is 70% to turn over a decent profit. Has he turned over the proverbial new leaf? Remember these are SP (Spatial for example was better than evens on BETDAQ yesterday).
WON 4-5 Walpole
WON 7-4 Adool
WON 5-6 Alyssa
WON 9-10 Sweet Sounds
WON 5-6 Idaho (gold)
WON 4-6 Spatial
CLOSE ON 100 BIG VALUE WINS: Check out the huge prices of Daqman’s value bets in the Daqman Library. He compares his wins with Pricewise of the Racing Post. After two more successes, they will notch up 100 returns between them this season: Daqman 68, Pricewise 30.
DAQMAN TOP RATES ZONDERLAND: Today’s challenge: 3.10 Beverley Bullet, 3.20 and 3.55 Goodwood. Pricewise chickens out of the Celebration Mile, for which Daqman top-rated Zonderland in his ABC Guide on Wednesday (see Daqman Archive)
PEDRO STEPS OUT OF THE TWILIGHT
2.35 Beverley If I were the only man in the Olympic Village capable of training with Usain Bolt, I would be very long odds on, should I line up for the father’s race at son-of-Daqman’s school.
The secret was out this morning that Henry Candy’s Pedro Serrano has been working with Diamond Jubilee winner Twilight Son, and the rest of this 2.30 field look like cardboard cut-outs against such gallops potential.
The 9-2 paper forecast this morning was soon made to look silly, with 2.50 early mouse in the BETDAQ orange.
Off the course nearly four years, Pedro is not certain to reproduce his gallops power. Some lead horses get jaded; some others get disappointed.
But for some it’s like taking candy from a kid when they have their day on the racecourse. And this is what Henry has in mind.
MUTHMIR CAN MANAGE THE OLD BOYS
3.10 Beverley Bullet The 10-year-old Borderlescott won this in 2012 but had no other winning form for 12 races before and 22 afterwards!
That’s what you get with these old boys. So it’s highly unlikely that Kingsgate Native will keep his form after scoring at Nottingham 18 days ago off a losing run off 10.
In fact, he’s never put back-to-back wins together in an otherwise illustrious 59-race career which started in June 2007, more than nine years ago.
Only two others in the race have proved capable at Group level and one of them, Maarek, is also a veteran, now aged nine but winner of this race last year by a neck from Line Of Reason, who is now 4lb better off.
True to type, Maarek came to the 2015 Bullet off 11 consecutive defeats and has been beaten 10 times since. Will he be a Fethard friend and peak again spot on the day for Irish trainer Evanna McCutcheon?
Needs rain and there’s 8.4 on BETDAQ says he won’t and, appropriate to last year’s form, 6.2 says Line Of Reason has a better chance.
But that’s betting without Muthmir, the third Group performer in the race, who had Line Of Reason well behind in the King George Stakes at Goodwood, when the difference between them was obvious in a market: Muthmir 5-1 joint favourite and Line of Reason 66-1.
Muthmir also beat Line Of Reason when he won the same Goodwood race in 2015, and is 3.75 favourite this morning.
A bigger threat may be Mr Lupton (8.4), not disgraced in a Group 3 at Newcastle before finding the ground too firm at that level against The Tin Man at Newbury.
CERTIFICATE GETS THE STALLS VOTE
3.20 Goodwood Half this field has no chance if the decade’s results by stall are any guide – 10 out of 10 winners were drawn below 10. Only since it became a heritage handicap in the last five years have we had big fields but single-figure stalls came out best every time: 5 beat 12; 7 beat 1; 7 beat 8; 8 beat 6; 5 beat 15.
And Can’t Change It, 15lb higher than when (hampered) sixth last year, may also have problems in the ‘coffin box’ one stall. It’s produced these placings in the 10 years: 3/10/4/3/3/2/19/9/2/12.
Farlow, fourth last year (5lb lower today) from stall 16 has a better chance this time from 2 but is eight years old now.
Intransigent (last won on AW in 2014) is seven but, including the 3lb he’s claiming off Rob Hornby, is 15lb lower than a year ago and has gate 9.
Above The Rest has returned to form recently but needs the forecast showers to get into the ground. Certificate, also back to form at Doncaster, would rather it remained dry.
Big Time made all in a simple claimer. Rivellino and Rex Imperator have never won at this 7f. That Is The Spirit was 80-1 on the last day. So, though 5.6 in a big value, Certificate looks value on form and stalls bias.
PLAY PLATITUDE WITH SINGH TO LEAD
3.55 Goodwood Three-year-olds have a reliable record, with the following returns in the decade from a handful of runners: 1233211.
Platitude has front-runner Mr Singh to settle him for a challenge up the hill: 3.65 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
4.10 Newmarket Naadirr was beaten a length in this last year after winning two of his three previous Listeds, and returned to form at the end of July: 7.8 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
4.30 Goodwood (Celebration Mile) I top-rated Zonderland (see Daqman Archive for Wednesday’s column) on the strength of some collateral form: 3.9 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) PEDRO SERRANO (2.35 Beverley)
BET 11pts win MUTHMIR and 4pts win MR LUPTON (3.10 Beverley)
BET 6.5pts win CERTIFICATE (3.20 Goodwood)
BET 11pts win PLATITUDE (3.55 Goodwood)
BET 4.4pts win NAADIRR (4.10 Newmarket)
BET 10pts win ZONDERLAND (4.30 Goodwood)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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