£100,000 SILVER SHINE TO BETDAQ RACE-DAY: Just when the big action seemed to be over, BETDAQ today supports a Saturday TV special at Kempton Park among four sponsored races including new events, the Silver Plate and Silver Bowl, altogether worth £100,000 guaranteed. Weather forecast: silver in the sunshine.
14 WINNING BETS FOR 50-POINT PROFIT: Despite a pinstickers’ day at Cheltenham yesterday, Daqman covered most of his losses with Tammys Hill (WON 17-2), making it 14 winning bets at the meeting and a profit of just under 50 points overall from three winning days out of four. His best-priced festival winners were:
BALLYNAGOUR WON 12-1 (from 17.0 on BETDAQ)
SPRING HEELED WON 12-1 (from 17.5 on BETDAQ)
TAMMYS HILL WON 17-2
BALTHAZAR KING WON 4-1 (from 7.6 on BETDAQ)
VAUTOUR WON 7-2 (from 5.1 on BETDAQ)
DAQMAN BEST BET IS 9.6 DOYNOSAUR FROM STABLE IN FORM
2.20 Kempton Park (Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase) Every winner of this had won or been placed last time out which hands the prize to Arkaim or Noche Du Reyes, but it may not be that simple, with five in the field separated by only three points on BHA ratings.
Easily Pleased has been in the frame seven times out of eight, still standing, Able Deputy five out of six, and Kitegen used to have a sequence of seven including three times successful.
Trainer in hot form is Karl Burke (11323 still standing) and Alan King was among the prizemoney at Cheltenham which puts Doynosaur and Tante Sissi bang in the picture, too.
Tante Sissi won the mares’ final at Newbury in her hurdling days and returned to the smaller obstacles after trying to walk through a couple of the fences on her chasing debut.
That contrasts with Doynosaur’s winning form at Newcastle, Arkaim’s three chase wins, the last one by 27 lengths at Leicester, and Easily Pleased’s smooth success at Newton Abbot.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Arkaim is a keen sort who may try to make every post a winning one but he needs the ground to stay soft. Able Deputy idles in front and it’s interesting to see Sam Twiston-Davies take over. Will try to wait on the leader until the run-in. Kitegen has been one paced over further and I’m not sure the drop back in trip will help.
It’s two years since we saw anything from Tante Sissi and the drop to this level hasn’t helped the last twice, hurdles or fences, though sure to have gone back to the schooling arena.
Easily Pleased is consistent, and Noche De Reyes consistently mediocre, so I give a chance to Doynosaur to bounce back at 9.6 on BETDAQ this morning in a 101% list of offers in the orange.
Doynosaur was impressive on her return to chasing before Christmas, winging her fences and prompting her rider to say there are ‘some big days ahead’.
She’s a big girl, and I’m just a little worried about the tight track, but the stable is white hot and she looked a fast jumper on good ground at Newcastle.
2.55 Kempton Park (Betdaq Silver Plate) This race would look good on the Aintree Festival programme, with 20 winners of 61 races set for the most part within a ratings parameter of only 8lb. And it could be just as fast, with the ground drying out.
The jubilant Cheltenham stables of Alan King, Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and – most prominently – Jonjo O’Neill and David Pipe are all represented.
So, too, the not so lucky at the festival: Oliver Sherwood, whose Deputy Dan was caught on the run-in yesterday, and Nigel Twiston-Davies, who saw The New One knocked sideways in the Champion Hurdle.
A 210,000 guineas buy into the Pipe yard, Legacy Gold has quickly repaid the guineas oddments but this is the mare’s first real chance to take home some decent money, though her 133 mark looks harsh after her wins over 114 and then 103 rateds on her last two starts.
However, Tom Scudamore has chosen Legacy Gold over Prideofthecastle, though that one looks good on a line through Art Professor, who was the ‘moral’ over Graded performer Kayf Aramis at Ascot after being slammed four lengths by the ‘Castle’ at Huntingdon.
Imperial Leader was 10 lengths off Fingal Bay in a Pertemps qualifier at Exeter but the winner won the final at Cheltenham. Similarly, Portway Flyer got within 12 lengths of Vaniteux at Doncaster in that one’s prep race before his third to Vantour in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on Tuesday.
The third horse that day at Doncaster had finished a million miles behind Brave Vic in a Grade 3 at Sandown before that and I see that Marcilhac was Plumpton runner-up to Brave Vic in January.
Special Catch, highly regarded by his in-form northern yard, ran well at the Aintree Festival last April and has been consistent in today’s class since.
Golden Hoof will do better as a chsser. Empire Levant should improve for better ground. And the going may be the key to this.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Marcilhac, who comes out with some class if his defeat of Brave Vic on heavy at Plumpton can be believed, will be much better suited to the improved ground, we’re told.
Imperial Leader also has that touch of class for this event, having tackled the likes of Fingal Bay and run up to Irish Saint this year.
The drying ground is a worry for a Flemensfirth but, when he beat Neptune second Ballyalton at Southwell as a four-year-old, the going was good to soft.
It’s a hard race to call but I reckon Cannon Fodder, second in two Listeds, is likely to set the pace with Bygones Sovereign and Lord Of Scotland.
Imperial Leader (10.0 on BETDAQ as I write) Portway Flyer (13.5) and Marcilhac (16.0) look the pick on form, with Marcilhac, noticeably jumping right at Plumpton and regarded by her trainer as better on a sounder surface, vastly overpriced and, though my bets today are to win 20 points, I’m raising my stake on that way to win 30.
3.30 Kempton Park (Betdaq Silver Bowl) More hot stuff from BETDAQ, both as sponsors and in the offers which added up to only 104% in the orange at the time of writing. Did you not notice SP Totals of 133% and 134% (twice) at Cheltenham yesterday!
The 104% means that you are in a punter-friendly betting zone and, as I did in the big hurdle just now, you can afford more than one bet at those prices.
But I don’t think so here. I’m expecting an improved performance from Lost Legend, Tony McCoy’s choice over Bar De Ligne, who represents the best form on show.
Bar de Ligne disposed of his field at Musselburgh, then comes out about the same horse as Ericht at the weights on their one-two on the same course when Ericht was prepping for Cheltenham (started joint favourite this week).
‘Shark’ Hanlon’s Nearest The Pin is over here for the better ground but has to give weight to all. The Cockney Mackem is a dodgy jumper. Notarfbad, The Romford Pele, Cloudy Bob and Elenika are all bridesmaids, with 16 out of 16 (last four races each) all in the frame without winning.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’d find it difficult to put you off any of these in a very open contest, with a very generous market from the BETDAQ layers. Lost Legend (11.0 as I write) is reported better than the bare figures suggest and is McCoy’s choice over a form horse.
DAQMAN SAT: GRAND NATIONAL DAY
DAQMAN GOES FOR A FIFTH MARATHON: Daqman, who beat Pricewise 12-1 at Cheltenham, is now leading the Racing Post man 37 returns to 11 since their value-betting duel began on November 23. He has landed four National winners out of five in the new year and goes for another one today:
WON 4-1 SUN CLOUD North Yorkshire National (January)
WON 14-1 FLYING AWARD Somerset National
WON 9-2 EMPERORS CHOICE West Wales National (February)
WON 9-2 FLYING AWARD Devon National
CHELTENHAM CHIEF MULLINS MAY BE OUTRUN BY THE SUN
3.50 Uttoxeter (Midlands Grand National): Willie Mullins, leader of the Irish braves who successfully raided Cheltenham yet again this week, has Are Ye Right Chief spot on – stats, weight and form – for another big prize this afternoon.
But he has tried and failed in this several times and the sun does not shine for this horse, third in the Punchestown Grand National Trial, and he was easy to back this morning at 11.0 on BETDAQ. He needs it to stay like a bog, on all known form, and I’m going, appropriately, for Sun Cloud.
David Pipe has skillfully and unerringly taken this prize three years running with horses rated 126, 126 and 128, and his runners today, Junior and Goulanes, might look like handicap planning errors off 142 and 138. But they’re lucky to get in!
Because the Charlie Hall and Denman Chase winner Harry Topper, rated 161, stays in off 11st 12lb, Junior carries 10st 7lb and Goulanes 10st 3lb, with half the field pushed out of the handicap. Harry’s done an Arkle!
Whether he can do even half an Arkle in the race itself is largely down to the weather. He, too, is ground dependent, and swerved the sounder surface at Cheltenham for forecast-soft Uttoxeter. But that forecast is blowing in the wind.
Goulanes also needs it to stay soft. As for Junior, he’s a law unto himself: even on a going day, he hasn’t won a decent race since the Kim Muir at Cheltenham three years ago yesterday.
Emperors Choice, second in the Haydock Grand National trial, needs a bog. Like Fill The Power, fifth last year, he is sharply up in the weights.
Bradley, fancied so often for staying chases, came back to form in the Grand Military Gold Cup, but that was an amateur-riders’ event and I wouldn’t fancy him in a ‘real’ race here.
Alfie Spinner fifth in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham 2013, is also a good stayer but equally difficult to win with and, like Red Rocco, 8lb out of the handicap. Loch Ba and Firebird Flyer are more of the same but at least they’re claiming back most of their long-handicap disadvantage. West End Rocker hasn’t won over park fences for three years.
Wyck Hill has a rare attribute for a stayer: when he’s in winning form he stays in winning form. After scoring at Chepstow in October, 2011, he won again 15 days later, 9lb higher. After winning at Wetherby in November 2012, he scored a month later 13lb higher.
And you have to grant him this: most of his defeats since have been because he’s been overfaced, attempting four Grade-3 races, three of them just before his Eider Chase win three weeks ago.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The three-years-younger Sun Cloud (9.4 on BETDAQ this morning) was making progress on Wyck Hill (11.0) when he fell in the Eider, and is 8lb better off.
The pair may outgun Willie Mullins’ stayer Are Ya Right Chief, who is very one-paced and has to be cajoled along. The ground may have gone against him.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20 points) 2.3pts win (nap) DOYNOSAUR (2.20 Kempton)
BET (to win 20) 2.2pts win IMPERIAL LEADER and 1.6pts win PORTWAY FLYER but (to win 30) 2pts win and place MARCILHAC (2.55 Kempton)
BET 2pts win (to win 20) LOST LEGEND (3.30 Kempton)
BET (to win 20) 2.3pts win SUN CLOUD and 2pts win WYCK HILL (3.50 Uttoxeter)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
