10.0 BULL’S-EYE NAP AT KEMPTON: Celebrating 100% with his Cheltenham bankers, 100-point ante-post gamble and a 9-2 winning score over Pricewise, champion-tipster Daqman moves on to Kempton for a 10.0 nap and the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter today.
WATCH THIS SPACE FOR WINNERS: It’s all over for another year, but the powerful play goes on. Will we see the big four Cheltenham champions – Annie Power, Sprinter Sacre, Thistlecrack, Don Cossack – at Aintree or Punchestown? Watch this space for the best ante-post tipping from this rock-solid base:
BANKERS: Six out of Six
CHALLENGE: Daqman 39, Pricewise 14
LAYS: 13 out of 17
300 TARGET AGAINST PRICEWISE: Look out next week as Daqman primes for action in the Irish Grand National (March 28), Lincoln Handicap (April 2) and Liverpool Grand National (April 9). But he’ll have to revise his target for feature-race winners from the 290 by Royal Ascot – he’s already on 285 – so look out for the 300 against Pricewise!
200-POINT CLEAN-UP BY THE BOOKMAKERS
Bookmakers bemoan worst-ever festival. That Racing Post headline should read: Punters bemoan worst-ever Cheltenham betting scam by bookmakers.
I checked out the BETDAQ orange as I did my selections each morning, reporting on the huge take-out by the bookies by comparing their SP Total with offers available on BETDAQ as I made my selections on the morning of the races. Tuesday went like this:
BETDAQ: 100, 100, 103, 101, 103, 102, 103
TOTAL SP: 118, 115, 127, 119, 125, 126, 137
Now check out the increase in the overrounds on Friday, as they clawed in the cash on the final day, taking out 200 percentage points over the top, compared with 167 on the opening day, when Betdaq’s was just 12:
BETDAQ: 101, 104, 102, 101, 104, 101, 104
TOTAL SP: 122, 136, 127, 115, 130, 136, 134
What does it mean to you? That you are getting amazing value in BETDAQ offers, as you compete man-to-man in an exchange with backer or layer, whereas fixed odds are heavily loaded against you.
OASIS ON HIS OWN: WILL HE STAY THERE?
3.15 Kempton Silver Plate Willie Mullins (Townsend) and Gordon Elliott (Vercingetorix) made up their Cheltenham loads with this one final assault this week on the English prizemoney.
Young horses – five and six – have won this so far and, sure enough, the Irish pair are both five, Townshend hooded for the first time and with Ruby Walsh staying on for the ride, a tip in itself. Townsend has had just one outing here since winning in France.
My costliest mistake yesterday was to believe that Dan Skelton’s Superb Story could not emerge from a race of losers and win the County Hurdle. We now know how cleverly he preps them.
But his Abricot De l’Oasis looks a trade horse here; opening position 18.5 on BETDAQ this morning, and likely to front run. Townsend may also pull hard; hence the hood.
Kempton CD winner A Hare Breath, balloted out at Cheltenham, is second favourite, with a double-figure bar. But I’m doubtful it’s a two-horse race, and there must be something lurking in that juicy orange at big offers!
Keltus and Simply A Legend are close together, exposed to the handicapper, but – like Townshend – For Good Measure, Goodbye Dancer and Vercingetorix are hidden horses for these reasons:
For Good Measure has been raced at 2m. As brother to Balthazar King, he could have bags of stamina under the bonnet. Richard Johnson seems to prefer Miles To Milan, but don’t forget that For Good Measure is McManus owned, so Geraghty’s ride.
Goodbye Dancer did well to score on heavy on the last day, considering his three previous wins were on good ground.
Vercingetorix stayed on well in The Ladbroke at Ascot in January and extra distance and better ground will suit.
VERDICT: A hard race for punters. Vercingetorix has to go because he’s such a bridesmaid (32222 in recent form) and is festooned with aids (tongue-tie, blinkers).
A Hare Breath is too high in the weights. They can’t give Goodbye Dancer away (46.0) this morning. So goodbye.
I’ll take 13.0 on BETDAQ For Good Measure, hoping that Philip Hobbs can bounce back from a bad Cheltenham, with a bit of win and place Abricot de l’Oasis (18.5) in case he can hold on into a place.
CERNUNNOS SET FOR McMANUS FAREWELL
3.50 Kempton Silver Bowl Another who missed the cut at Cheltenham, Orbasa, is new to the yard after one run since arriving from France, similar to Townshend.
The difference is that Orbasa won and jumped well, but you can never be sure, as imports acclimatise, whether they will run the same again, and he finished alone in a poor contest. Yet another second time out after arriving from France is Atirelarigo.
Royal Mcnab is likely to take them on from the front. The Skelton mare, Pumped Up Kicks, has got her ground at last.
Maybe it’s best left to Cernunnos, if J P McManus hasn ‘t had enough partying. He likes to stay on for the Saturday meetings and, between For Good Measure and Cernunnos, should make enough to update to business class on a cheap Ryanair return.
Cernunnos’s last two races, including second over CD at Kempton, involved giving weight to all the other placed horses. I took 7.4 on BETDAQ.
TWO ACES YET BOTH 10.0 ON BETDAQ..
3.35 Uttoxeter Another McManus, Champagne At Tara, has been highly tried since breaking his maiden in December. The grey Kayf Tara mare should enjoy trip and ground, and drop in class.
Chef d’Oeuvre is also down in grade but has to gift weight all round, and Warren Greatrex had a frustrating Cheltenham.
Poker School, a winner at Kempton on the last day, ran Abricot de l’Oasis to a neck at Huntingdon, so his performance in the 3.15 at Kempton good be a good guide to this.
I could get 10.0 on BETDAQ about each of Poker School and Champagne At Tara, so dutched them at level stakes. River card and turn card to my champagne!
..AND IRISH SIZING UP A FINAL FLING
4.10 Uttoxeter (Midlands Grand National) Only one horse above 10st 12lb has won this in the decade; none of a double-figure age.. and none by an English trainer except David Pipe since 2010
Pipe landed four in a row before Jim Dreaper broke his hold last season, when David didn’t have a runner.
But I’m not sure that Standing Ovation can earn the applause today. He’s a horse who’s never scored before August in any year, and has won all his races going right-handed.
Jim Dreaper challenges again with Sizing Coal, third in the Irish Grand National, and not brought back this season until a handy run over hurdles in February.
Cultram Abbey was the whispered outsider for the Eider but fell. Cogry, sixth in the NH Chase at Cheltenham last year, and fourth in the Murphy, was all the rage for the Welsh Grand National but pulled up on the heavy ground. I took 6.8 Sizing Coal and 9.0 Cogry.
SPIN OF THE CASINO WHEEL WITH 10.0 NAP
TODAY’S NAP: I had a very nice Cheltenham – thanks for asking – mainly ante-post. And I like to stake some of the loose fivers on a big-odds nap on this day before the hard swot at the silly meetings next week.
I’ve chosen a horse with no form over fences, but with a particular jockey booking (Nico De Boinville) for a trainer (Emma Lavelle) who has a fabulous 50% strike rate with handicap debutants.
So it is that 10.0 hidden horse, Casino Markets (2.40 Kempton), a big strapping beast who loves good ground, could be the surprise packet of the day.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points unless stated)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50pts): 5pts win and place (nap) CASINO MARKETS (2.40 Kempton)
BET 1.6pts win and place FOR GOOD MEASURE, 1.2pts win and place ABRICOT DE l’OASIS, and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) TOWNSHEND for the 1-2-3 (3.15 Kempton)
BET 2pts win on each CHAMPAGNE AT TARA and POKER SCHOOL (3.35 Uttoxeter)
BET 3pts win CERNUNNOS (3.50 Kempton)
BET (to win 30): 5pts win SIZING COAL and 3.75pts win COGRY (4.10 Uttoxeter)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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