DAQMAN REVEALS BETDAQ VALUE: Get these! 8.6, 7.2, 6.4, 6.0, and 5.7. They’re all offers taken by Saturday-king Daqman this morning, as he takes on Pricewise for value (Daqman leads 28-6) in the handicaps at Newbury and Newmarket. BETDAQ total percentages of around 104% and 105% give you a massive chance of beating the odds or backing two in a race.
SCOPE FOR A NEWBURY BANKER: Daqman finds one in the London Gold Cup with ‘a tall home reputation’ and reckons a filly could win the Lockinge because It’s a below-par renewal, if the ratings are any guide. His banker is Telescope at Newbury.
TELESCOPE GOLD BANKER FOR NEWBURY LISTED
1.25 Newbury Mark Johnston, who’d had a low strike-rate this season, suddenly opened the box and a crackerjack five winners came out of the Middleton Moor yard yesterday, two of them two-year-olds.
He certainly wants this opener, not only having three runners but grabbing the services of three top jockeys, Hughes, Doyle and De Sousa.
2.00 Newbury Sir Michael Stoute coaxed improvement out of Snow Sky yesterday but not Top Tug. I went the other way round. York was not my meeting, despite a good start.
Telescope has had just the one win, his Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, since the Great Voltigeur as a three-year-old in 2013.
But today is his first drop down from Group level in 10 starts, whereas second-favourite this morning, Elite Army is up a grade, with little to choose between that one and Windshear (visor removed), who has also won only in class 2, albeit placed in the first four at Group level.
Ring-rusty Gatewood has won a grade higher than this but, like Windshear, has shown his best form on a soft surface. Qatar champion Dubday is unlikely to be good enough.
2.35 Newbury Some 27 of John Gosden’s 35 starters in the last eight days have been in the first four, and Waady should get the extra furlong after a hat-trick over the minimum. Paul Hanagan has picked Waady over Adaay.
Adaay (Ryan Moore now) ran well on his reappearance when William Haggas wasn’t showing much form. There’s still no edge to them, and Adaay needs a firmish surface.
Last season Jungle Cat was placed (three times) behind the subsequent second and third in the Guineas. He’s dropping back to sprint distance here after a poor Free Handicap. The instructions will be ‘go.’ So the low-stalls side should get a strong lead.
That’s where you’ll find Salt Island, who has looked very useful on top of the ground. Elysian Flyer and Wet Sail may need a bit of cut.
It’s a drying day after rain, and should be ‘going good’ but we’ve been bamboozled by the weather before this week. I took around 6.0 Salt Island.
3.10 Newbury (London Gold Cup) Stand by for more punishment; yet another three-year-old handicap (range 21lb). Just when punters think they’ve got it right (six successful at 9-2 or less), they get whacked with 11-1, 16-1 and 25-1 winners in this (since 2008).
Sir Michael Stoute has won it twice in the decade, both well backed, as will Dissolution be today, climbing the grades and bidding for a hat-trick.
Dance Of Fire and Mohatem are likely leaders at offers in the BETDAQ orange which could be traded later on.
Plymouth Sound, badly drawn at Sandown (forget that run) would be boosted if Elysian Flyer went well in the previous race; they were first and second at Bath last summer.
Time Test looks ‘go’ with a tall home reputation and Ryan Moore booked, but he has been working well in a hood, so I’m a bit phased by its absence. Maybe trainer Roger Charlton has been ironing out a slight kink.
Charlton has a special affection for this race, which launched the career of his Eclipse winner, Al Kazeem. Dissolution and Time Test are both Abdullah’s, so I see this as a fishing trip for the King Edward (Royal Ascot Derby) and am obliged to dutch them today (5.7 and 6.4 respectively on BETDAQ).
3.25 Newmarket Another three-year-old handicap (18lb range), and it’s a sprint! So only one favourite has won recently.
Kevin Ryan has booked William Buick for apple-of-his-eye Captain Colby (massive 8.6 on BETDAQ). Salt Island would be a big boost to Properus; they were one-two at the Craven Meeting.
INTEGRAL CAN GRAB A NOT-SO-GREAT LOCKINGE
3.45 Newbury (Lockinge Stakes) I can’t have an older horse in this (Custom Cut and three others); not many find the improvement, once they pass five years of age.
Having said that, this is a poor renewal. Apart from the ‘monster’ Frankel (won off 136 in 2012), the winner has been rated 124 (twice), 125 and 127 in the last five years. Night Of Thunder runs off 121 today from Toormore (119).
Group-1 scorers land 70%. That gives you the same two, plus Integral, yet another improver for Sir Michael Stoute last season.. or was she?
The official handicapper says that, despite two Group-1 wins, she was 115-117 throughout the last year.
She’s won only against her own sex, you see, but her seventh in the Champions Mile can hardly be a black mark against her, as the ground was heavy.
Fact remains – on the ‘same for every body’ scale – that Night Of Thunder and Toormore were both in front of her that day.
However, Stoute has won this race seven times, twice with first-time-out improver fillies.
Night Of Thunder beat Toormore three times last year, and seems to act on any ground. Mooharib needs to continue his progress – up more than a stone this season – to figure at this level.
To the rescue? A 104% BETDAQ orange means that I can chance Integral (at a tasty 7.2) and Night Of Thunder (4.1), while others are struggling to get an edge with the high percentages (SP will be around 115%).
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ offers this morning, except the banker which is charged to the account at SP)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) TELESCOPE (2.00 Newbury)
BET 6pts win SALT ISLAND (2.35 Newbury)
BET 6.3pts win DISSOLUTION and 5.5pts win TIME TEST (3.10 Newbury)
BET 9pts win PROPERUS and 4pts win CAPTAIN COLBY (3.25 Newmarket)
BET 10pts win NIGHT OF THUNDER and 5pts win INTEGRAL (3.45 Newbury)
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