20.0, 16.0 and 7.4 BETS FOR THE THREE CUP RACES: It’s The Tale Of Three Cups today, with Daqman betting at 16.0 in the John Smiths Cup, 20.0 in the Bunbury Cup and 7.4 for the July Cup. How’s Daqman’s form? ‘The July Meeting has been the best of times and the worst of times.’
ELUSIVE DOUBLE WHAMMY FOR DAQMAN: Daqman sweated out the stewards’ inquiry at the July Meeting yesterday after laying Sky Lantern (2nd 4-7) and backing Elusive Kate (WON 3-1). The double whammy was his best race, with an 8-1 winner and a banker high spots of the opening day.
1.45 York That left-hand hairpin into the Knavesmire straight has produced five successes for stalls 2 and 3 in this since 2006, with no winner in seven years drawn higher than seven.
I shall follow that bias today, on the grounds that only two hold-up horses could come down the outside: Smarty Socks, but it’s nearly five years since he won beyond 7f; and Snooky, but he has to step up in class and has tried three different running styles in his last three races!
From stall 3, Anderiego (9.6 on BETDAQ this morning), owned by a York racing club, goes for his third CD win on the course after disappointing at Royal Ascot. He won this race last year a stone or so lower from stall 5.
But he might have landed a Listed here in the Spring when he ran out of room but finished third. David Bergin takes 5lb off.
Nine Realms was so highly thought of last year that he was entered at Group-1 level. If word gets to the track that he is fit and ready for this, with Graham Lee up, he will shorten considerably from this morning’s 4.5.
2.05 Newmarket After making all the running at today’s trip over the Rowley Mile course to break his maiden, Prince’s Trust (5.0 on BETDAQ as I write) was aimed at the Britannia but missed the cut.
Jammy Guest (9.4) was an equally assertive maiden winner, and his Royal Ascot tilt was in much higher class, not disgraced in the Jersey Stakes. The stable had a surprise winner here yesterday and also has Excellent Guest in the Bunbury.
2.55 York (John Smiths Cup) There’s been no winner carrying more than 8st 12lb for eight years now; none older than five in the decade; and the winner by stall for the past five seasons has been 19, 17, 13, 16, 12.
This suggests that those enjoying ‘a good draw’ in the low numbers spend their advantage too soon, and fall for the late runs of hold-up horses like Niceofyoutotellme and the grey Danchai.
Danchai is still learning, was a closing sixth in last Saturday’s Sandown Challenge over a mile, and is too big at 16.0 on BETDAQ as I write, likely to improve for the step up in trip and with the William Haggas stable 25% or so in handicaps on this course.
Haggas also has Stencive in the race, also lightly raced, also drawn high. But, dropped in from the widest draw at Royal Ascot, he ran second to Opinion in the Duke Of Edinburgh.
On a line through that one, he beats a key runner here, Star Lahib, trained by Mark Johnston, who continues with his blanket approach, running 18 horses at five meetings today.
Richard Fahey’s scattergun is also cocked for 25 runners at the five meetings, Clon Brulee said to be a coup horse for this race after a break since winning the Zetland Gold Cup but, with the yard’s 8-73 strike rate, you need all of 10.0.
Rivalling Clon Brulee as best of the low numbers is Educate, who put in such an eye-catching run in the Royal Hunt Cup, when badly hampered, that the handicapper raised him 2lb for finishing 15th! Did the trainer reprimand the jockey: ‘Not too far’?
CUP VERDICT: I’ll stay with the trend for high-stall hold-up horses, and find it hard to see beyond the Haggas stable’s classy pair, Stencive and Danchai, despite his published misgivings about the draw.
3.15 Newmarket (Bunbury Cup) Six of the last eight winners were officially rated between 96 and 105 on the day of the race, but 101 is the top of the handicap this year.
Yesterday’s races at 7f and 1m went to stalls 5, 1, 9 and 6; low numbers have won three of the last five Bunbury Cups; and today’s most likely pacesetter, Highland Colori, is in 5.
A huge 20.0 on BETDAQ, Emilio Largo, in stall 7 today, was my fancy in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but proved to be badly drawn in stall 8 that day as high numbers dominated (result by stall 32, 30, 24, 15, 26, 25).
Es Que Love (fifth, lost shoe) and Mezzotint were not disgraced in the same race but the one is very hard to win with (has failed to score in last 22 starts, except once on AW at Kempton) and the other was prolific at 6f.
Dance And Dance (offered at 11.0), blinkered first time today, has crashed 16lb in the handicap since last July and the booking of Ryan Moore is significant, the partnership landing a big handicap at Epsom off 3lb higher than today.
CUP VERDICT: Belgian Bill and Excellent Guest usually run well in these big handicaps and, along with Emilio Largo and Dance And Dance, make up a formidable low-drawn quartet, presumably towed along by Highland Colori. Follow the late money on BETDAQ.
3.50 Newmarket (July Cup) Eight of the last 10 winners of this have been drawn between stalls 2 and 8.
Shea Shea, Society Rock and Sole Power seem to be a formidable trio but all are six-year-olds and only one of that age group (Les Arcs) has won in the last 45 years; only seven aged five have scored in that time.
So there is a very clear bias to just six of today’s starters, 50% of the field, and since two of those have failed to win a Group race, we are seemingly looking among Lethal Force, Shamexpress, Slade Power, Gale Force Ten.
On form, Shea Shea is 2-1 up over 5f specialist Sole Power, and it might have been 3-0 if he hadn’t been hampered in the Kings Stand (Shamexpress well beaten).
It’s 1-1 Lethal Force and Society Rock this year (Slade Power beaten both times) but Lethal Force is the younger horse with the potential.
Gale Force Ten, second to Magician in the Irish Guineas, led over two furlongs out when taking the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and is by Oasis Dream, who turned over the Royal Ascot star, Choisir, in this very race, the July Cup.
CUP VERDICT: I’m taking the younger horses, Lethal Force (6.2) and Gale Force Ten (7.4), to outgun this fascinating field but, in a magnificent 102% book of offers on BETDAQ, I am able to afford a stakes saver on Shea Shea.
DAQMAN’S BETS: Above-average racing so stakes raised to win 30 points each bet. A Value Bet today is where BETDAQ offers add up to 107% or lower, total probability. Gold Value is where the favourite is opposed in such a race.
BET 8.5pts win (nap) NINE REALMS and 3.4pts win ANDERIEGO (1.45 York)
VALUE BETS: 7.5pts win PRINCE’S TRUST and 3.5pts win (Special Bet) JAMMY GUEST (2.05 Newmarket)
VALUE BETS: 5pts win STENCIVE, 4pts win NICEOFYOUTOTELLME and 2pts win DANCHAI (2.55 York)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 3pts win DANCE AND DANCE, and 1.5pts win and place EMILIO LARGO (3.15 Newmarket)
VALUE BETS: 5.7pts win LETHAL FORCE and 4.6pts win GALE FORCE TEN, plus 2.7pts win (stakes saver) SHEA SHEA (3.50 Newmarket)
BET 1.5pts win and place WEST LEAKE DIMAN (4.00 Chester)
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