CLASSIC BIG-RACE BID FOR BULL: A banker and a big-odds (13.0) Bull’s-Eye Bet to win 50 points are turned up by Daqman digging through the mud, race by race, at Warwick today, which features two marathons, one over hurdles, the other the Classic Chase.
DAQMAN’S 12 UP ON PRICEWISE: He takes on Pricewise, 20-8 up for the jumps season (overall 266-104), raising his stakes for most races to aim at 30 points profit or more. Look out tomorrow for their bets at the big Leopardstown meeting.
WARWICK BANKER TO KEEP YOU IN THE BLACK
12.40 Warwick Venetia Williams, as I’ve so often said, is queen of the heavy-ground horses (confirmed by James Pyman’s stats yesterday). She has won this twice in the mud since 2011.
With not much form to go on in a novices’ handicap, it’s a suck-it-and-see race and current form-figures for Polo’s stable are 2142341010232123, still standing, which augurs well for the Classic later on.
1.15 Warwick (Edward Courage Cup) Venetia goes for a hat-trick here after winners on heavy and on soft in a race usually won by seven-year-olds.
Her dual Ludlow winner, Vivaccio, is seven, though has won only on good-to-soft ground and is too easy to back at 11.5 as I write.
But a similar 10.5 about Big Jim looked wrong. Trainer Alex Hales, who turned over The Unit – one of four frustrating seconds for me yesterday – with a 20-1 shot, drops front-running Big Jim back in trip with the intention of grabbing a lead which will be hard to claw back in the mud.
The danger is the grey, Morning Reggie (6.0 offers), a good winner here last Spring, who will appreciate the left-handed course. He’s won twice and been placed twice this way round.
1.50 Warwick Bally Beaufort, 30lb behind Silsol and 17lb off Black Hercules on hurdles ratings, is the only runner who hasn’t scored on heavy ground. Expected to make a pace which is unlikely to bother the principals.
Emily Gray (prefers a right-hand course) has to step up in trip and the race looks three-cornered.
Definitly Red didn’t look a natural over fences at Catterick, and Silsol, giving weight all round, is festooned with aids of tongue-tie and cheekpieces.
So it has to be Black Hercules, who hardly labored to win 12 lengths and 65 lengths at Navan, with the runner-up scoring by 16 lengths at Fairyhouse since.
Black Hercules was paying 16 profit to 20 points staked as a banker at best-offers BETDAQ liquidity this morning in a 102% list.
LAD GOES TO TOWN IN HURDLES MARATHON
2.25 Warwick According To Trev, who’s 10 now, and Rolling Maul, racing off his highest mark, are the only runners in this with class-2 success on their CV.
Rolling Maul would go well on last year’s hurdles record but has run stinkers over fences since, and has to bounce back.
Six out of eight winners have come from below 11st., where Howaboutnever has already scored over today’s CD on heavy, albeit in a conditionals race. Pobbles Bay looks vulnerable stepped up to this marathon when so lightly raced.
Front-runner Arctic Gold is also up in trip here and the late-developing Isaacstown Lad – four out of five and improved 35lb last year – could continue his climb through the ranks, with Howaboutnever the danger, in receipt of 23lb.
Isaacstown Lad is ‘having his Cheltenham’ here as he won’t get ground like this at the festival in March.
3.00 Warwick If a five-year-old wins this, you can be sure he’s a good’un (The New One, Carruthers) and Born Survivor is just that, according to the BETDAQ market.
He’s clear favourite as I write, despite the presence of two Willie Mullins raiders and two other rivals on a hat-trick mission.
The low-trajectory-jumper Thomas Hobson didn’t beat much at Punchestown and Mullins has to find easy jumping options for him, and I remember Open Eagle racing round the extremes of Town Moor to find the best ground when he won the November Handicap for David O’Meara.
Wishing And Hoping is bred to go round again but needs to improve and the morning 20.0 on BETDAQ looked too good to be true.
The big-hearted little’un Mckenzie’s Friend may find this tough and Final Nudge had to struggle to beat the bridesmaid Tippmanboy at Bangor. I nailed that one with a lay only yesterday.
LIGHTLY-RACED FOXBRIDGE LOVES THE MUD
3.35 Warwick Classic Past winners include Rigadin De Beauchene: 11lb higher now and flopped in it last year.
On both occasions the SP Total percentage in the race was 122%.
Incredibly, I can survey the BETDAQ orange for offers this morning in a total list of 103%. Value or what!
Rigadin’s stablemate, Houblon Des Obeaux (9.2 this morning), has been given a chance by the handicapper here, 4lb below his last winning mark.
Seventeen of Houblon’s last 22 starts have been at Ascot, Newbury or Cheltenham, so you could say he is unexposed outside the big three tracks on this much easier course.
Totally unexposed outside the gaffe tracks is What A Good Night: can his Bangor form prove good enough here? He’s a Westerner, well bred for this trip.
Less likely to get it on form is another Westerner, De Kerry Man, on a four-timer until he unseated at Cheltenham on the last day.
Sego Success would have gone closer to Cause Of Causes in the NH Chase (4m) at Cheltenham last March but for a blunder at a vital stage (Vivaldi Collonges tailed off).
But Sego and Houblon Des Obeaux are level weights here, whereas Sego went for the Scottish National after Cheltenham, in receipt of 18lb from Houblon that day.
Midnight Prayer is also worse off with Houblon, though trying to make up a 40-lengths-plus deficit on the last time they met.
The 13.0 BETDAQ offer Foxbridge loves today’s conditions and is lightly raced for a 10-year-old. He’s the danger to Houblon des Obeaux.
DAQMAN BETS
BET (to win 30pts) 7pts win POLO (12.40 Warwick)
BET (to win 30pts) 6pts win MORNING REGGIE and 3pts win BIG JIM (1.15 Warwick)
BANKER: BET 20 points win (nap) BLACK HERCULES (1.50 Warwick)
BET (to win 30pts) 7pts win ISAACSTOWN LAD and 4pts win HOWABOUTNEVER (2.25 Warwick)
BET (to win 20pts): 10pts win BORN SURVIVOR (3.00 Warwick)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50pts): 6pts win HOUBLON DES OBEAUX and 5pts win FOXBRIDGE (3.35 Warwick)
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