DANK NAPPED TO CONTINUE BRITISH BREEDERS’ CUP RUN: After three British winners yesterday, two great fillies by fast-ground sire, Dansili, will be in their element at Santa Anita tonight, says Daqman. He naps Dank and awards The Fugue the Breeders Cup Turf honours on the second day of the $37m world-championship meeting in California.
HARRY HAS HIS CHANCE TO GO TIP TOP: Long Run has always been a stuffy horse, hard to get ready first time, so Daqman gives Harry Topper his big chance in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, one of three big chases in England this afternoon.
BREEDERS’ CUP DAY-2: HAVANA IS THE HORSE FOR THE BIG CIGAR
7.05 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies) Steven Asmussen won this juveniles race at Churchill Downs, Kentucky, in 2011 with an unbeaten filly and he saddles another one here in Untapable.
Still only 48, Texas trainer Asmussen, who has twice saddled 600-plus winners in a season and is already two years past the day he trained his 6,000th, was one of the first to support Santa Anita’s decision to revert to dirt in 2010, moving part of his string the 1,600 miles to California.
Churchill Downs is a mere 1,000 miles from him but it does mean that Untapable, who has won both her races there, will be 2,000 miles from her favourite track tonight.
Just in case I still haven’t knocked you over with the big numbers in The Big Country, this race is worth a total of $2m dollars, with £674,847 pounds sterling to the winner.
Rosie Napravnik, who is steering Untapable in preference to Secret Compass, rode into the record books (second ever female rider to win a Breeders’ Cup race) when she won the colts and geldings’ dirt juvenile on today’s course last year. Her main rival tonight may be another female, Leah Gyarmati, trainer of Sweet Reason.
The Saratoga record-breaker Artemis Agrotera stopped Sweet Reason’s run at Belmont Park but maybe only because Sweet Reason swerved away five lengths at the start. Has she been straightened out by her small-time trainer, who is a multi-Tweeting Russell Brand fan?
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It’s a hard race. Good luck to the lady, Leah. But I’ll stick with the big numbers and have my pound on another supergal, Rosie, and the Asmussen filly, Untapable. I could get 7.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
7.43 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf) Dank is such a smart filly she went over in August and pinched this race’s number one ‘win and you’re in’ qualifier, the Beverley D Stakes at Arlington Park, from under the noses of the Americans. By nearly five lengths!
Dank is yet more evidence of Sir Michael Stoute’s patience and skill with slow developers, in the manner of Islington, who won this race for him in 2003.
French raider Romantica was seen off by Treve in her Vermeille prep for the Arc, though you simply don’t know until they try it whether French horses will improve for fast ground.
Also with a long view of Treve’s hindquarters, in the French Oaks, was Alterite, who is about five lengths superior to Emollient but a neck off Kitten’s Dumplings.
Marketing Mix, who was second in this last year, is closely matched with Tiz Flirtatious on form here and at Hollywood Park but Marketing couldn’t Mix it with Dank at Arlington, finishing six lengths off her.
I’m inclined, therefore, to think that Dank’s most formidable opponent is Laughing, who beat the Woodbine International winner, Tannery, at Belmont.
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Dank was always going to be my American nap of the day but the big value on BETDAQ this morning is Laughing at a huge 11.0. The 107% list in the orange is so punter friendly it has me Laughing for a place at better offers than Dank for the win.
8.21 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint) Sprinters who could go with the pace were screaming down the outside from high stalls yesterday, a complete contradiction of what was expected from the draw.
Last year’s winner Groupie Doll has won only a Grade 2 since. She had to give weight to Judy the Beauty at Keeneland but was comprehensively beaten.
It was a similar story for Judy, when she was giving 3lb in a Grade 1 handicap at Calder, but was hammered nearly four lengths by Starship Truffles, though there’s been very little enterprise from the Starship since!
Dance To Bristol gamely held Book Review at Saratago, but it’s debatable whether she can confirm Belmont placings with Dance Card, who was on the comeback trail that day, and was six lengths better than Book Review at this time last year.
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I can’t pretend I know these fillies well. I have never had a racecourse date with any of them. But collateral form suggests that Dance Card is big at 11.0 under Joel Rosario, who has won the Dubai World Cup and the Kentucky Derby this year and has a fan club titled ‘Best Jockey In The World’
9.05 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint) Those great Hall of Fame jocks Gary Stevens and Mike Smith were immediately on the ball yesterday and go head on with Rosario in this.
Mizdirection (Smith) and Unbridled’s Note, last year’s one-two out of gates 11 and 13, with Reneesgotzip third, are similarly drawn this time, in 12 and 14
Unbridled’s Note found Chips All In too good over today’s course and distance in September, and Chips loves Santa Anita with form figures of 211 on the sprint course.
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: ‘Chips’ is hot on this track but Mizdirection’s hotter with five wins out of five. Punter-friendly BETDAQ allows me to back both. You can set a fixed-profit yield and dutch the two but, as ever, I shall take the 5.0 and 8.0 to win me 20 points in each case.
9.43 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) Go West with New York’s Todd Fletcher, who has won the race in two of the last three seasons, and is both in the driving seat and riding shotgun at the same time tonight.
He won the two big qualifying races, the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland (with We Miss Artie) and the Champagne Stakes at Belmond Park (Havana).. on the same day!
Strong Mandate (Rosario up) was expected to go into this at odds on, after storming the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga nearly 10 lengths. But that was on ‘sloppy’ dirt, and on fast at Belmont he couldn’t get nearer than 11 lengths off Havana.
Saratoga was the start of another big turn-around when hot favourite We Miss Artie flopped behind Bashart in a Grade 2 but, though stepping up to Grade 1, he beat Smarty’s Echo in the Keeneland Futurity, with the rest strung out.
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Negatives for We Miss Artie are that dirt has not so far been his forte and Jorge Velasquez has deserted him for Havana. That would make Havana a standout, without Mike Smith on the grey-roan Tap It Rich (is this America’s Kingston Mill?)
10.22 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Turf) Yesterday I predicted three weekend wins for the English raiders to get the 20 up in the Breeders’ Cup but I didn’t expect them to do it in one day!
London Bridge, Outstrip and Chriselliam revealed the American weaknesses as stayers and two-year-olds but the market says they have only Point Of Entry to ward off the challenge of The Fugue in this $3m-dollar Breeders Cup Turf, which has traditionally been a feast for the Brits – Sir Michael Stoute (4), Aidan O’Brien (3) – who are currently on five out of seven.
Did I say ‘only’ Point Of Entry! The winner of five Grade 1s is out for revenge on last year’s defeat by Little Mike, which was down to his being hampered.
But can we hope to see the old Point Of Entry after the entire’s leg injury which has kept him off the track since June? It’s not my style to bet on them until I’ve seen a comeback race, and that’s too late for this.
John Gosden, responsible for Yorkshire Oaks and Champion Stakes winner The Fugue, is back to the scene where his training career was launched by the Santa Anita Handicap victory of with Bates Motel in 1983.
The Fugue might have won the Fillies and Mares Turf last year but for being trapped at the time she should have been making her run.
It’s hard to fancy an Irish Guineas winner whose dam was a sprinter, but clearly Ballydoyle knows more than we do about Magician.
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The Fugue it is. She proved her liking for the track and ground last year when she ws hampered, and is a better animal this time around. My outsider is Indy Point probably big at 14.0 on BETDAQ because of his Arlington Million flop. Trainer and jockey, Mandella and Stevens, won yesterday with Beholder.
11.01 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Sprint) Has the coffin-box gate 1 again stalled Justin Philip’s usual stalking tactics? He was hampered in this race last year and couldn’t get to Private Zone from the 2 stall at Belmont Park in September.
I’m taking Fast Bullet and Private Zone to lead on the outer and set it up for Secret Circle, who dropped back to sprinting only recently and bolted out of the slipstream on tonight’s track.
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’m looking through a crystal ball on this one but I remember Bob Baffert (Secret Circle) winning the race back to back with the lightning-fast Midnight Lute.
11.40 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Mile) My man in Kentucky texted me a stark verdict: the 2012 Horse Of The Year, Wise Dan, is on his way down. It didn’t look that way when he slammed Za Approval at Woodbine but he was always held by Silver Max at Keeneland.
If Olympic Glory were an American horse with his last win 14 days ago – the British Champions Mile at Ascot – he would be ignored in the market here, but we don’t race the same hell-for-leather way in England, so his negative is more the ground for me.
It was soft at Ascot, and has never been faster than good in any of his career races. Cristoforo Colombo looks a real wild card having spent eight of his nine starts in 6f sprints.
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Was Silver Max’s defeat of Wise Dan at Keeneland a fluke? Is my American text a solid lay? Can Olympic Glory act on the ground? Decisions, decisions.. I’ll take the BETDAQ market value in a marvelous 106% list of offers, and the orange award goes to the 9.0 about the improver Silver Max.
12.35 Santa Anita (Breeders Cup Classic) Another punter-friendly BETDAQ ‘book’ (107% as I write). Wordly yesterday didn’t do much for the form of Fort Larned and he’s now weighted to get closer to Mucho Macho Man.
* DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It all suggests a showdown between Game On Dude, a six-year-old with the CV of a horse half his age, and Ballydoyle’s Declaration of War, who beat the Irish Derby winner when he won the International on fast ground at York.
BIG CHASE DAY IN ENGLAND: FAIRY TALE HAT-TRICK AT ASCOT
1.50 Wetherby Before the amazing Breeders Cup tonight, let’s watch our own wonder of the world, Tony McCoy, on his way to the 4,000 via Une Artiste.
Une Artiste faces the 2011 winner, Alasi, and the Aintree specialist L’Unique but he beat Alasi in the race last year and, despite a turnaround in the weights, is taken to do so again, with far more scope as the four-years-younger animal.
L’Unique is even younger – still only four – and appears to have a fine future. With those word sin mind, I am tempted to surmise that the Greatwood in a fortnight’s time is the real target.
Despite recent Flat races, Cockney Spoarrow’ s form for his runs back over hurdles is 302 and John Quinn’s yard is currently out of form.
2.10 Ascot (Byrne Group Chase) It must have been Gus Macrae’s lucky day at this time last year when he nipped up the inside and sneaked this off bottomweight. He hasn’t troubled the judge since.
Not for the first time did we see how quickly they can get strung out in this, jumping at pace. Fairy Rath bounced off the ground in similar fashion over course and distance in the Spring.
He then took a mighty leap from novice chasing to a class-2 handicap, in which he beat last week’s Old Roan Chase winner, Conquisto.
Obviously Fairy Rath is up in the weights, bidding for his hat-trick here, and you worry about fitness at this time of year but the booking of Barry Geraghty suggests he’s ‘go.’
3.20 Ascot (United House Gold Cup) The last seven winners have carried no more than 11st 3lb but you need a more seasoned campaigner for this tough 3m. Horses aged 8 to 10 are five out of six.
How about a CD winner who has won his first two runs back for two years running. Wyck Hill’s the name, BETDAQ’s the game: 9.8 play this morning.
3.35 Wetherby (Charlie Hall Chase) Early-season form makes proper Charlies of us but not this race. The last nine winners were all well fancied, 7-1 at most, three of them favourite.
The return of Long Run is the focal point of the race but he’s never so hot first time back: 3223 since 2010. Cape Tribulation is the same.
Benefficient didn’t quite last the 3m when Harry Topper beat him at Newbury, and the grey Unioniste has yet to emerge from the novice ranks. It’s Harry Topper’s big chance for stardom, a role Kim Bailey (‘he’s my best since Master Oats’) has always predicted.
DAQMAN’S BETS (All bets are to win 20 points)
BET 5.7pts win UNE ARTISTE (1.50 Wetherby)
BET 3pts win FAIRY RATH (2.10 Ascot)
BET 2.2pts win WYCK HILL (3.20 Ascot)
BET 2,5pts win HARRY TOPPER (3.35 Wetherby)
BET 3.2pts win UNTAPABLE (7.05 Santa Anita)
BET 10pts win DANK (nap) and 2pts win and place LAUGHING (7.43 Santa Anita)
BET 2pts win and place DANCE CARD (8.21 Santa Anita)
BET 5pts win MIZDIRECTION and 2.8pts win CHIPS ALL IN (9.05 Santa Anita).
BET 5.2pts win HAVANA and 3.3pts win TAP IT RICH (9.43 Santa Anita)
BET 10pts win THE FUGUE, and 1.5pts win and place INDY POINT (10.22 Santa Anita)
BET 2.8pts win SECRET CIRCLE (11.01 Santa Anita)
BET 2.5pts win SILVER MAX (11.40 Santa Anita)
BET 6.6pts win GAME ON DUDE and 3pts win DECLARATION OF WAR (12.35 Santa Anita)
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