BREEDERS’ CUP AND 14-RACE FIREWORKS: There’s a sensational day’s racing today across the British Isles and over the Atlantic to the big day of the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, USA. Daqman and Pricewise (split 82-39) lock horns in no fewer than 14 races on the final day’s reckoning for the 2016 Flat-season honours.
THREE NAPS AND TWO TRIPLE WHAMMYS: Daqman has three naps, one at Down Royal, one at Aintree, one at Santa Anita, and he also has triple-whammy bets with lays this afternoon and tonight. Tomorrow: the day of reckoning; what kind of season has Daqman had?
NOVEMBER TRIP IS MADE FOR MONTALY
1.50 Doncaster Big fields are a good thing! They make for better offers (9.4 the field in the BETDAQ orange this morning for this one) yet many of the runners shouldn’t be here.
They are racing despite weight, ground conditions, even the wrong distance, sometimes because they want to beat the handicapper not today but next season.
Boy In The Bar, George Bowen, Highly Sprung, and a couple of maiden winners have never score beyond sprint distances, and – another point – the likely fast pace gives them even less of a chance.
Firm ground is a strange phenomenon at this time of year but it suits Albernathy, and cheekpieces should straighten him out. He was the ‘moral’ in two of his last three starts, runner-up giving weight to the winner; 10.0 BETDAQ offers taken.
3.00 Doncaster We haven’t see much from Marco Botti here but Aljazzi has his ground in his class here: I could get 13.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
Entsar and Aqualis (13.0 offers) are also lightly raced and ‘could be anything.’ Carnachy and Maleficent Queen are down in grade but may need some cut. Celo Na Nog steps up from handicaps.
3.35 Doncaster (November Handicap) I’ve previewed this race twice in the last two days, and I shall stick with my three outsiders: 19.0 William Hunter and 19.5 Montaly, and Mistiroc 34.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning. Montaly is the best bet, brought back to the right trip.
VALSEUR LIDO LOOKS JUST CHAMPION
2.35 Down Royal (Champion Chase) I previewed this race earlier in the week. It could be all about the ground again. Don Poli may need it softer.
But fast-ground at Cheltenham didn’t stop Valseur Lido suggesting that he’ll be a major force at 3m this season, as he confirmed by winning at Punchestown.
The 3.55 on BETDAQ this morning was a good bet for a seven-year-old on the way up over the 3.85 for a 10-year-old, Silviniaco Conti ,on the way down.
3.05 Down Royal (Belfast Chase) and 1.35 Wincanton Also earlier in the week, I put up Le Mercurey (3.95 this morning) as the first leg of a big Saturday double for Paul Nicholls to be completed by Frodon in a week’s time.
Frodon preps today in the 1.35 Wincanton, described in the yard as the best jumper at Ditcheat. I’m nervous because of the small field; I’ll reduce my stake.
3.10 Aintree There are first-time winners here with an equal say in this, but On Tour’s yard is out of form and Orbasa has won only three-runner races, and we have to judge Some Buckle on one success in a novice over four others.
Splash Of Ginge hasn’t won for nearly two years so it all seems to rest with 5.8 offer Thomas Brown, who has scored first run back for the last two seasons and is highly regarded.
3.20 Wincanton I’m a big fan of The Young Master and his trainer Neil Mulholland, and local hero Paul Nicholls provides a price for us with Southfield Theatre and Present Man.
In fact, Southfield Theatre looks a false favourite as a 2m 4f horse who was beaten twice by ‘the Master’ last season and has won only a novice chase since 2014.
I smell a triple whammy, with Ziga Boy at 15.0 my outsider for the so-reliable Alan King yard.
TEPIN PICK OF THE BREEDERS’ CUP BETS
7.05 and 9.43 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Dirt Juveniles) Europe took a pasting in the juvenile turf races yesterday, and have ducked the Dirt.
Union Strike (7.05) hasn’t been seen for six months since beating Champagne Room and Noted And Quoted (Bob Baffert) at Del Mar, so may be a vulnerable favourite, with Baffert now also saddling American Gal, who would probably have won that Del Mar race but was withdrawn, coughing.
Gormley and Klimt (9.43) were one-two in a Grade 1 here seven weeks ago, but maybe Not This Time! The son of Giant’s Causeway has had his 10-lengths maiden romp boosted by wins for second and third. I took 9.6 American Gal and 6.0 Not This Time
7.43 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf) On three out of four, Chad Brown goes for a hat-trick in this, bringing back his 2014 Fillies’ Juvenile Turf winner here, Lady Eli but she has been under a cloud.
Brown’s winning sequence was interrupted by Sir Michael Stoute in 2013 (Dank) and his Queen’s Trust looks the value at 7.0 after running up to Minding in the Nassau Stakes.
It’s 1-1 between 7.0 BETDAQ offer Queen’s Trust and her Ballydoyle rival, Seventh Heaven, but Queens Trust goes with the pace and will be suited by the trip, whereas Seventh Heaven gets behind and needs further. It’s all in the superb hands of Frankie Dettori.
9.05 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint) Three-year-olds like Aidan O’Brien’s Washington DC win this only once in a decade, and the home team is lower grade excepting A Lot and Celestine.
I can get around 10.0 on BETDAQ each of the two yankee flying machines. You need more than one in a sprint, in case of a bad start. You also need a highish stall here.
10.22 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Turf) St Nicholas Abbey, Magician and Found have won this for O’Brien in the last five years, with Found an even better animal this year, but there’s the worry that her long season takes its toll.
Stoute-Dettori again have claims with 10.5 offer Ulysees, and Flintshire wss runner-up in 2014 when trained by Andre Fabre. Ectot turned him over from the front last time, and is too big at 16.0.
This is much faster ground but six-year-olds like Flintshire don’t win this (0-22 in the decade) and, with Flintshire, Found and Ectot running for you, he must be a lay (3.85 in the green this morning).
11.01 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint) Haveyougoneaway! That’s what they’ll be saying in rear of this late improving mare (holds Carina Mia): 5.3 on BETDAQ is very fair.
11.40 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Mile Turf) Only the French have broken the US hold on this in the decade but they’re not represented this year.
The turning track could help Limato get the trip but they are the wrong turns; he’s only ever won right-handed.
Alice Springs has won three out of four against her own sex but this race sets up sequence horses: Goldikova and Wise Dan shared five wins in the last seven years.
So I’m going for Tepoin, who is in even better form than winning it last year, including raiding Royal Ascot and winning the Queen Anne. Nap of the night at 4.4.
12.35 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Classic): A mouth-watering match of the day saved up for last. Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Dubai World Cup; all have fallen to California Chrome.
But he was beaten in this in 2015, and Dortmund, runner-up in two of Chrome’s last three winning starts, flopped here yesterday, leaving the way open for the new kid on the block, Arrogate.
Broke the 37-year-old Saratoga track record, and a rising star in the mould of last year’s winner for the same stable, the invincible American Pharoah.
DAQMAN in ENGLAND and IRELAND (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET (to win 20pts): 10pts win FRODON (1.35 Wincanton)
BET 3pts win ALBERNATHY (1.50 Doncaster)
BET 11pts win (Irish nap) VALSEUR LIDO (2.35 Down Royal)
BET 10pts win LE MERCUREY (3.05 Down Royal)
BET 3pts win ALJAZZI, and 2pts win and place AQUALIS (3.00 Doncaster)
BET 6.25pts win (English nap) THOMAS BROWN (3.10 Aintree)
LAY to lose 10pts SOUTHFIELD THEATRE, plus BET 4.5pts win THE YOUNG MASTER, 2pts win and place ZIGA BOY (3.20 Wincanton)
BET 1.5pts win and place MONTALY and WILLIAM HUNTER, and 0.85pts win and place MISTIROC (3.35 Doncaster)
DAQMAN at SANTA ANITA (staked to win 20 points)
BET 2.3pts win AMERICAN GAL (7.05)
BET 3.3pts win QUEEN’S TRUST (7.43)
BET 2.2pts win on each A LOT and CELESTINE (9.05)
BET 4pts win NOT THIS TIME (9.43)
LAY to lose 10pts FLINTSHIRE and BET 2pts win ULYSEES and 1.3pts win ECTOT (10.22)
BET 4.6pts win HAVEYOUGONEAWAY (11.01)
BET 5.8pts win (USA nap) TEPIN (11.40)
BET 6pts win ARROGATE (12.35)
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