BULL’S-EYE BETS ALL THE WAY: Daqman has won fortunes until a recent down-turn during strange results from the changeable weather, with 16 bankers up and more than 228 points profit from his new Bull’s-Eye Bet.
On a day of big cup fields and handicaps, his stakes are raised to win 50 all round.
Have some Daq Multiples fun along the way!
DAQMAN STATE OF PLAY
DAQMAN 49, PRICEWISE 17
16 BANKERS OUT OF 22
BULL’S-EYE BETS UP 228 POINTS
ABSEIL TO HOODWINK BUNBURY FIELD
The last shall be first. I can’t think of a better example of the kind of form we’ve been suffering during this last 10 days of changeable weather than Deeds Not Words, stone last of 20 at York a month ago but first from 14 others at Newmarket yesterday, with the York winner behind.
That the likes of Kingston Hill, Night Of Thunder, The Fugue and on through to Arab Spring, should not just be beaten but all be out of the frame remains inconceivable. But it happened.
And just when you thought it was safe to go back into the betting pool, the weather has divided the cards between firm (Ascot and York) and soft (Newmarket), though worst of all are Chester and Salisbury, where firmish ground is forecast for showers, the strength of which we know not.
I did the right thing, keeping my profit targets down to 20 points a bet, and there is not much damage to my sequences, but Saturday is my day and it calls for courage: small-stakes tilts at the bigger offers. So all my bets today are bull’s-eye bets to win 50 points.
1.40 York Six of the last seven winners were drawn seven or lower. The advantage on the far rail can usually only be offset by a sweeping run down the outside.
Three-time York winner Common Touch is just such a hold-up horse but he’s higher in the ratings than he’s ever won off, none of his success being at this trip.
Navajo Chief took advantage of the one draw over CD in May but now has gate 18 and has never put two races together in his life, but his two months’ holiday might have helped and Kieren Fallon has turned down three other rides to partner him.
Trail Blaze (stall 4) should, literally, do that, along with Capo Rosso (2) and Hit The Jackpot (7). I see as progressive raised to this trip – and somewhat disguised – Royal Rascal at 15.5 on BETDAQ this morning. Navajo Chief was 13.0.
1.55 Ascot At Royal Ascot the winners came from the high stalls. They dominated again on the straight course yesterday, and 11 beat 17 in this race last year.
Bogart (drawn 12) loves the ground, loves the track (twice a winner) and this front-runner is 12lb better with Demora, though he beat that one into fourth at the Ebor meeting: 34.0 on BETDAQ this morning, because he usually needs more racing to get him ready.
Last year’s winner, Masamah (drawn 20, offered at 14.5), also likes ground and track, and is better off with Demora. Robot Boy (13) is an improver, though he hasn’t beaten much.
So, too, Intrinsic, on a four-timer here for a trainer who does particularly well with sprinters. He also runs Speed Hawk, a promising runner-up on his seasonal debut behind a horse that’s gone on to a fine Listed place; then was second to a subsequent Group-3 winner last time out.
The race seems to rest between Masamah, Intrinsic and Speed Hawk, with Bogart sure to bounce back in the second half of the season. I shall back the Robert Cowell pair, Intrinsic (7.4) and Speed Hawk (13.5), with Bogart the wild card. ‘Here’s lookin at you, kid’.
2.05 Newmarket Quality’s the thing: seven out of the last eight winners carried more than 9st. Progeny of Excellent Art (Examiner), Dubawi (Safety Check) and Mastercraftsman (Master The World and Roachdale House) all did well on the soft here yesterday.
David Elsworth continues to have a good season and the grey Master The World (12.5 on BETDAQ as I write) is dropped back to his winning trip and down from Pattern attempts
2.55 York (John Smith’s Cup) Horses over the age of five and those carrying more than 8st 12lb are at a disadvantage on past results.
Can these stats account for Clever Cookie, who is now up 19lb since his CD win on the soft in May? He’s won from 1m 2f to 2m 2f this year.
Ryan Moore was in top form yesterday but needs to be if he is to persuade Bold Sniper that being a bridesmaid earns you no bouquets. Got to be in the mix but narrow defeats are hiking him up the handicap.
Tahira (12.0 this morning) looks laid out for this and is a bet, granted a few showers. She had a look-see at this level on today’s course at the Dante meeting – continually hampered – before running well round the tight turns at Chester.
But the ‘one most likely to’ is Tarikhi (also 12.0), only just touched off in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last season. he settled appreciably at York on his first run back after being gelded.
3.05 Ascot There were only two three-year-olds in this last year and they finished first and third. The grey Despot is the Classic generation’s sole representative today, back on the ground he loves after flopping on a slower surface last time. I took 8.4.
3.15 Newmarket (Bunbury Cup) Some 11 from 15 placed horses in the last five years have come from stalls 11 to 20.
The defeat of Sir Michael Stoiute’s Abseil in the Royal Hunt Cup was as big a shock at Freemason Lodge as the demise of Arab Spring, and the fitting of a hood could redeem the losses: 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.50 Newmarket (July Cup) More than 80% of winners of this over 40 years have been aged three and four, and 60% have come from the Kings Stand and Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot.
Four three-year-olds have won this century, and Hot Streak, third to Sole Power in both the Palace House and the Kings Stand, now gets his ground and a handy draw in 12.
It’s Slade Power not Sole Power who is the bigger danger over this extra furlong. He is again drawn to outlast Due Diligence who ran up to him in the Diamond Jubilee, and has to be stakes saver.
I’ll take as my second bet in the race another three-year-old Noozhoh Canarias, lightning out of the stalls, lasting well enough over 7f to be second to subsequent French 2,000 Guineas winner, Karakontie.
DAQMAN’S BULL’S-EYE BETS (each bet is staked to win 50 points)
BET 4pts win NAVAJO CHIEF and 3.4pts win ROYAL RASCAL (1.40 York)
BET 7.8pts win INTRINSIC, 4pts win SPEED HAWK, and 1.5pts win and place BOGART (1.55 Ascot)
BET 4.3pts win MASTER OF THE WORLD (2.05 Newmarket)
BET 4.5pts win on each TARIKHI and TAHIRA (2.55 York)
BET 6.7pts win DESPOT (3.05 Ascot)
BET 6.4pts win (nap) ABSEIL (3.15 Newmarket)
BET 8pts win NOOZHOH CANARIAS and 4.5pts win HOT STREAK (3.50 July Cup)
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