NAP HAPPY FOR CHAMPIONS DAY: Daqman landed back-to-back naps yesterday, following up a 30-point gold banker on Don Cossack (WON 1-4), with an 11-point nap on Barton Antix (WON 11-10). It was winning nap number 16 from the last 22.
DAQMAN LINES UP TOP TIPPING: The 16 naps have included eight consecutive winning bankers and he’s also on an unbeaten run of lays. So his current sequences are:
8 bankers in a row
16 naps out of 22
4 consecutive lays
HE NEEDS THREE FOR THE TON: Daqman needs three more winners to hit 100 against Racing Post rival Pricewise. The score is Daqman 97, Pricewise 15, with bets today in the 12.45, 1.20, 1.55 and 3.45 Ascot.
BIG VALUE? BETDAQ’S YOUR CHAMPION ALL DAY
* GET ON: Oppose the favourites. Only one clear favourite has won the Champions Sprint in the last decade, and only two the Champion Stakes. Look beyond the market leader to where offers on BETDAQ can be huge.
* GET ON: Play the percentages. At 10 o’clock this morning, the BETDAQ orange showed incredible value at 102, 106, 105, 103, 103, and 108%.
Yet in three consecutive races displayed on the Pricewise page of the Racing Post, I needed accounts with 10 different bookmakers to obtain a similar best-price percentage (105-6%) in three consecutive races advertised.
Next question: can you actually get any of those prices, including the 10-1, 12-1 and 20-1 claimed for Pricewise this morning?
The SP Totals suggest you’ll be struggling. They soared to an horrendous 143% on this card last year. In race order: 113, 121, 119, 119, 114, 143%.
Note particularly that gross 143% (‘gross’ here is an adjective not a noun!), compared with 108% on BETDAQ this morning.
* GET ON: Cut your commission. Worried about commission? Don’t be: not with bookmaker take-outs like that! It’s obvious that BETDAQ is the value.
But, in any case, you’re in charge! Just put up a bigger offer, even a tiny one, even to small stakes – as long as it tops the offer in the orange – and your commission on a winner will be reduced to 2%.
PALLASATOR RATES A BETTER HORSE THIS SEASON
12.45 Ascot (Long Distance Cup) Favourites landed four in a row in the decade but be warned that shock results (two at 20-1) came when the going was soft.
On all known form, it’s too soft for Hidden Gold, Litigant and Amour De Nuit, not soft enough for Wicklow Brave.
If we can believe a line through Suegioo between York and Doncaster, Pallasator has something in hand. The ground was a bog when Forgotten Rules beat him into third in this last season.
The Irish St Leger (and its Trial) and the Ascot Gold Cup are the recent stepping-stones to winning this, a path followed this year by Forgotten Rules, himself.
But he’s been largely disappointing since his 2014 success, though he finished a close Gold Cup third on a fast surface this summer. Has raced only seven times in his entire life.
VERDICT: Surprisingly, there are only four Group winners in the race: Agent Murphy, Clever Cookie, Pallasator and Forgotten Rules. I take Pallasator as BETDAQ value at 9.6 this morning.
SLOW-BURN HILLS’ STAR IS NOW READY TO SHINE
1.20 Ascot (Sprint) All through Muhaarar’s great run, stable confidants have known that the apple of Charles Hills’ eye was, and is, Strath Burn.
Muhaarar’s Group successes have all come on good and firm ground (form on soft since debut: 30), so Strath’s slow Burn should finally come to light here.
Twilight Son’s unbeaten run of five has been capped at York and in the Haydock Sprint on good-to-soft, so the ground holds no fears but he’s out in the car park in stall 20, with the low stalls best served for pace (from Coulsty and Eastern Impact in 1 and 4).
VERDICT: I can see the Twilight Son and Strath Burn’s one-two in the Haydock Sprint being reversed here.
But this big sprint has a rare 11 three and four year olds in competition, all potential improvers, so we need that bonus of 9.6 Strath Burn on BETDAQ.
I shall try and push him out even further because of the hot twosome of Muhaarar and Twilight Son. I’ll pitch for 9.8.
PACE FILLIES AND DRAW SET UP CANDARLIYA
1.55 Ascot (Fillies and Mares) Journey, Simple Verse, Speedy Boarding and Tapestry don’t have winning form on an easy surface.
Beautiful Romance, Journey and Speedy Boarding don’t have success in the Pattern at Group level.
Journey, Madame Chiang, Sea Calisi, Simple Verse and Lady Tiana are in high-numbered stalls, so don’t have the draw to win this.
Those are my negatives, a triple blow to Journey, an eight-lengths winner on the last day, and it will be interesting to see whether Frankie Dettori decides to try to poach a lead, as he did on this one at Newbury and as Robert Havlin did at Newmarket.
Simple Verse has won only a handicap at this trip and will have to be ridden to bring her stamina into play.
VERDICT: Arabian Queen and Covert Love take a keen hold, and I can see the race set up for Candarliya (32112 on soft surface).
GLENEAGLES NOT GOOD ENOUGH ON THE BOOK
2.30 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes) Why nurse Gleneagles now? He’s done enough to earn his stud fees, and this pussyfooting around over degrees of ease in the surface has markedly become degrees of pain and boredom.
Ok, he doesn’t like soft ground. But, looking at his thin CV since he won the Guineas, you suspect something else. And, looking at his form, your suspicions are confirmed.
Second, third and fourth in his St James’s Palace success have been beaten since. Second, third and fourth in his Irish guineas have been beaten seven times since, including in races won by Solow and the benchmark for form in these mile races, Esoterique.
Esoterique has stopped both Integral and Territories but, in turn, was outgunned by Solow in the Queen Anne over today’s course and distance.
Gabrial, who has won only handicaps, comes out in front of Kodi Bear and Elm Park at these weights in these conditions.
VERDICT: I’m opposing Gleneagles, whose Guineas form has been overtaken by events, and whose CV since is downgrade. Territories, second to him in the Newmarket Guineas, comes out behind Solow but in front of Kodi Bear. Win Solow; lay Gleneagles.
VADAMOS THE BETDAQ VALUE FOR CHAMPION
3.05 Ascot (Champion Stakes) Jack Hobbs has also been quiet since winning (the Irish Derby) in early June, and I was disappointed not to see him in the Arc line-up.
No three-year-old has scored in this since New Approach (2008). In the interim, winners of the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby and King George have all been thrashed.
And Aiden O’Brien, trainer of Found, has a very poor record in this. His
Derby winner Ruler Of The World was only third in 2013 and was then stone last as a four-year-old in 2014.
So You Think (7-4 favourite, 2011), Fame And Glory (6-4 favourite 2009), Eagle Mountain (2007) and Oratorio (9-4 favourite, 2005) also got stuffed, though all lined up strongly fancied in the market.
But in Found’s favour is that this 10 furlongs is her trip, as she showed when runner-up to Golden Horn in the Irish Champion Stakes.
VERDICT: I put up the improver, Vadamos, at 8.0 on BETDAQ ante-post. He has eased slightly this morning (8.6).
Strictly on form there is nothing between Jack Hobbs and Found, both as runners-up to Golden Horn. I’ll add a place bet on Vadamos but any one of the three could win.
MERRY ME COULD GET A MASSIVE FORM BOOST
3.45 Ascot If Vadamos wins the Champion Stakes, his runner-up on the last day, Merry Me, will look huge at 17.5 on BETDAQ this morning. Get on early and hope for a good run from Vadamos so that you can trade your Merry Me.
And I must also have a pound on Master The World, so narrowly beaten when topping my ABC Guide for the Cambridgeshire: 20.0 as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 unless otherwise stated)
BET 3.4pts win PALLASATOR (12.45 Ascot)
BET 3.4pts win STRATH BURN (1.20 Ascot)
BET 5.7pts win CANDARLIYA (1.55 Ascot)
LAY 5pts GLENEAGLES, and BANKER (nap): BET 20pts win SOLOW (2.30 Ascot)
BET 4.2pts win VADAMOS (already ante-post), and 3pts (stakes saver) VADAMOS (3.05 Ascot)
BET 1.8pts win and place MERRY ME, and 1.5pts win and place MASTER THE WORLD (3.45 Ascot)
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