5-1 NAP STRIKE ON THE EVE OF CHAMPIONS DAY: Daqman, who landed his nap, Al Mubhir, at 5-1 yesterday (11.15 profit on the day), goes into Champions Day with a 50-39 lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post and bids for another value nap with a 5.3 bet.
ALL THE BEST! DAQMAN WRITES THE HEADLINES: Champions Day at Ascot lines up the best sprinters, milers, stayers and middle-distance horses, with Baaeed among them. Good luck with all the best! Daqman’s headlines:
IS THIS TRUESHAN’S WATERLOO?
POWER TODAY’S GREY EMINENCE
BRAVE ROSA HAS THE STAMINA
PLAY GAMES AND GET THE VALUE
BAAEED TO BOW OUT UNBEATEN
HIDDEN HORSES AT 22.0 AND 2.30
IS THIS TRUESHAN’S WATERLOO?
⭕ 1.25 Ascot (Long-Distance Cup) Trueshan has no Kyprios, no Stradivarius, to beat in his mission for a hat-trick in this race but it still doesn’t look easy, particularly after his modest recent form.
He faces a late improver among the older horses, Coltrane, who has been raised 18lb this year and beat him in the Doncaster Cup.
And, unless it rains, another five-year-old, Quickthorn, could make all the running, as he did in defeating Coltrane 14 lengths at York, though Ascot is not the place for a runaway.
Quickthorn was unable to keep up the gallop when Ascot Gold Cup hero Kyprios went well clear in the 2m 4f French Gold Cup.
A second-season animal has won only three times this century and connections of a sub-standard St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov have not been entirely sold on the idea of running here.
That’s a different stance to Ballydoyle, who have a very progressive sort in Waterville – 23lb hike as a handicapper -who is a giant of a horse, so could improve again.
Perhaps we shouldn’t get too carried away with a handicapper, one who was winning an Irish Cesarewitch off 8st 9lb, but clearly the established stayers in this race are in and out.
Waterville absolutely ate up the ground from ‘an impossible position’ in his Cesarewitch and I think we need something restrained for such a late burst if Quickthorn tries to run them ragged in the battle between the old and the new.
Remember Aidan O’Brien has Kyprios at home and ‘knows the strength’ of every one of these.
BETDAQ value 6.2 Waterville
POWER TODAY’S GREY EMINENCE
⭕ 2.00 Ascot (Sprint) Seven CD winners in the field, including Creative Force in this race a year ago, but Rohaan in particular loves Ascot: form here 11011, including on firm ground twice, yet he’s a Group-2 winner at Haydock on heavy.
But this race is querky. It usually goes to outsiders, horses who do nothing much in high rank again: the last five winners were losers 31 times in total after taking this. I can’t see this as Rohaan’s swan-song.
Secondly, extremes of the draw don’t do well. I can’t have Double Or Bubble (stall 1), King’s Lynn (2), Castle Star (15), Naval Crown (16), Kinross (17) and Vadream (18)
I prefer Art Power (out of gate 8) who has just returned to form. The grey entire was fourth last year, badly drawn in 20 when winner, second and third came out of 5, 2, 4. Also out on a limb in 18 was Highfield Princess (sixth), who is now the star of the sprinting arena.
Brad The Brief (stall 5 today) made a big leap forward to take a Group 2 at the Curragh on only his second start of the year. Has had a long holiday and is unexposed.
BETDAQ value 7.1 Art Power, 7.4 Rohaan, 21.0 Brad The Brief
BRAVE ROSA HAS THE STAMINA
⭕ 2.40 Ascot (Fillies And Mares) Winners of this come from the Arc meeting: so that’s Sea La Rosa, Insinuendo, Verry Elleegant and the three-year-old Emily Dickinson for Aidan O’Brien, who has won the race twice in the last five seasons.
Winners of this may also be Spring horses returning after a lay-off or a holiday, simply waiting for this better ground. That would be Emily Upjohn (first-time hooded), winner of the Musidora and second in the Epsom Oaks.
Eternal Pearl, a steady improver all season for Charlie Appleby and William Buick, is four in a row (two of them Group 3) since taking a class-5 novice at Kempton in late June.
That would put Charlie Appleby in the driving seat for the trainers’ title, which he will try to capture with Modern Games and Adayar bulwarks against the money–machine Baaeed for William Haggas.
But Haggas himself has the hugely game improver here in Sea La Rosa, who had enough stamina to take the Royallieu (1m 6f very soft) on the last day? Has she recovered from that race.
Betdaq Betting Exchange9.5 Sea La Rosa
PLAY GAMES AND GET THE VALUE
⭕ 3.20 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth II Stakes) Charlie Appleby must beat Inspiral with Modern Games if the colt is to be champion miler and Appleby champion trainer.
Modern Games, French 2,000 Guineas winner and third to Vadeni in the Chantilly Derby, got within a couple of lengths of Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes.
He won his third Group 1 in the Woodbine Mile a month back, adding £350k to his pile, which is now approaching £1.5m
Inspiral receives 3lb but has a tough task, if only on a line through Erevann who would have met her a pound better than when he was beaten only half a length in the Prix Jacques le Marois.
On the first of this month, on very soft ground at Longchamp, Erevann cosily won the Group-2 Daniel Wildenstein, receiving 3lb from The Revenant (not clear run, finished second), who won this Champions Mile in 2020 but was only fourth last year to Baaeed.
BETDAQ value 5.3 Modern Games
BAAEED TO BOW OUT UNBEATEN
⭕ 4.00 Ascot (Champion Stakes) Baaeed wins this year’s trainers’ title for William Haggas, if he can take the £737k prize over his archrival, Charlie Appleby, who would have to bring back Adayar to his 2021 Derby-winning form.
Adayar, in fact the only horse since Galileo to win Derby and King George as a three-year-old, comes to the race fresh but his rival is the unbeaten best since Frankel, rated 8lb higher than Adayar, and set to step up in trip to a swansong Champion Stakes victory, as did Frankel.
Bay Bridge was thought by some the new Frankel after four in a row and a rise of 15lb in the Spring but firm ground was found to be the flaw in his make-up, and he’s 15lb behind Baaeed now.
BETDAQ value On this easy surface, Bay Bridge is the each-way bet at 10.5 or win and place at 21.0.
HIDDEN HORSES AT 22.0 AND 23.0
⭕ 4.40 Ascot (Balmoral Handicap): We have all the ‘experts’ warning us that we need a high draw, which is the way the market is, but the results by stall of this particular race in the last seven years favour the far side: 4, 1, 3, 8, 21, 4, 11.
The 2019 winner, Escobar, was runner up to Blue For You (17) at York in August and has since picked up a penalty over 7f here at Ascot which means he’s 2lb worse off, though beaten. They are in adjacent high stalls.
Bashkirova (19), a Group-3 winner, drops in grade for this. You can’t back him without backing stablemate Montatham (4). Baaeed’s lead horse, so you can ignore his long absence.
Astro King (22), in the first four in the Royal Hunt Cup here two years running, is visored first time. They’ve withdrawn him a couple of times recently when the going’s been soft.
Tyrrhenian Sea (10) is well in with both Blue For You and Escobar in their August race at York but has never won on turf. Blue For You is more reliable with figures of 32221 over a mile since joining David O’Meara.
Symbolise (8), runner-up in this last year, has a 5lb claim to help and runs in first-time cheekpieces but it still depends whether he’s in the mood.
Perotto (1), winner of last year’s Britannia, moved up into the pattern with limited success. Will be 4lb lower, with Harry Davies’s claim.
Johan (3), winner of the Lincoln (good to soft), is another ‘hidden horse’, with very little racing since. His yard recently won the Cambridgeshire at 25-1 with a similar ‘sleeper’.
BETDAQ value 9 Bashkirova, 18 Montatham, 22 Johan, 23 Perotto.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.25 Ascot (win 20)
BET 4pts win WATERVILLE
2.00 Ascot (win 20 each)
BET 3.25pt win ART POWER
BET 3.25pts win ROHAAN
BET 1pt win BRAD THE BRIEF
2.40 Ascot (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win SEA LA ROSA
3.20 Ascot (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win MODERN GAMES
4.00 Ascot (win 20, place win 4)
BET 1pt win and place BAY BRIDGE
4.40 Ascot (win 50 x 2, win 18 x 2)
BET 2.25pts win JOHAN
BET 2.25pts win PEROTTO
BET 2pts win BASHKIROVA
BET 1pt win MONTATHAM
FORTUNE COOKIES
1.25 Coltrane, Trueshan
3.20 Inspiral
4.00 Baaeed
(20pt level stakes)
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