THE £13-MILLION CHAMPION! It’s Champions Day, and the champion tipster Daqman previews every race at Ascot, including a bet to win 190 points, as he fancies Jim Crowley on his crowning day to lift the big handicap. But he reckons Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien will come out best as Ballydoyle tops £13m for the season.
BETDAQ BRINGS YOU VALUE: Daqman takes on Pricewise in the 2.35, 3.10 and 4.25 Ascot, with the scores Daqman 76, Pricewise 35. Whoever wins, you will be on at value if you bet BETDAQ offers which add up, race by race, to 103, 104 and – in the handicap – 107%
NAPS HAT-TRICK BID: Daqman has two banker bets, one a 20-pointer, one a 30-point gold, as he bids for a hat-trick of naps, following, back to back:
WON 7-4 Sadlers Risk
WON 6-5 Cliffs Of Dover
ST GEORGE CHAMPION STAYER ON FORM
1.25 Ascot (Long Distance Cup) Forgotten Rules, who made it four in a row for the Irish in 2014, was badly hampered and squeezed out when joint favourite last year.
He’s been seen only once since, and that was just three weeks back when the ‘moral’, narrowly beaten at The Curragh, giving a lump of weight to the winner.
He’s so very lightly raced that opinion is divided between whether he’ll come on for that run or ‘bounce’ from the effect of a ‘fantastic finish’ at The Curragh (words of the Racing Post analysis).
But a bigger problem may be the ground: it was heavy when he won this race and heavy again when he made that reappearance at The Curragh.
Order Of St George won six races on all surfaces from good-to-firm to good in the Irish St Leger and soft in the Ascot Gold Cup.
He’s been placed the last twice, beaten for tactics (Frankie Dettori on Wicklow Brave got the run on him in the Irish Leger this time around) and speed over shorter, drawn very wide in the Arc.
But this 2m should play to his strengths and, though the handicapper has dropped him back to 120, he is still entitled to beat this field (118 Quest For More, 115 Sheikhzayedroad, 113 Simple Verse and Nearly Caught).
There’s literally a nose between Sheikhzayedroad and Quest For More on Doncaster Cup form. The Sheikh was only third to St George in the Gold Cup but both have the ability to quicken at this shorter trip.
Simple Verse won the Fillies and Mares on this card last year but has failed to make an impression in mixed company before returning to beat her own sex again in the Park Hill.
Daqman’s Verdict: Some horses here today will be jaded after a long season: freshest in this race are Forgotten Rules and Simple Verse.
But, on all known form, it must be Order Of St George to take Aidan O’Brien’s earnings in Britain and Ireland this year to £12,301,389. Not including overseas; Breeders’ Cup to come.
TWILIGHT DRAWING IN TO SPRINT TRIUMPH
2.00 Ascot (Champions Sprint) The ratings give Shalaa and Mecca’s Angel a clear advantage, and they have another edge: both are drawn high.
My race trace, back through the championship meetings and beyond, reveals that, in the last five big fields for this, the results by draw have stalls 12 and 14 winning two each and being placed four times apiece! In four of the five years, stalls 12 to 20 filled 10 of the 12 places.
Shalaa is in gate 10; Mecca’s Angel in 14. But there are two big differences between them. Firstly, like Forgotten Rules in the opener, Shalaa has had a comeback run after a long absence, whereas Mecca’s Angel has appeared in most of the big sprints this season.
Secondly, Shalaa, unbeaten since the debut, is a 6f specialist; you have to go back three years to find Mecca’s Angel’s last appearance over 6f.
Twilight Son and The Tin Man have something in common: they were second and fourth in this race a year ago. The big difference this time is that Twilight Son has a double-figure draw; The Tin Man is drawn low.
Of the others in high stalls, Mobsta and Donjuan Triumphant are well held by Quiet Reflection on two pieces of form. All three prefer soft ground.
Daqman’s Verdict: Henry Candy’s Twilight Son (7.6 on BETDAQ 0 has had only three races this year, is well drawn, according to the stats, and has his Diamond Jubilee winning jockey, Ryan Moore, back in the saddle, with a strong word from my gallops man in the long grass, ‘back to his best.’
Yes, the Candy man can do it again, despite the loss of Limato. Shalaa seems to be back in business but hindsight tells us that he beat nothing well in the Middle Park, with the runner-up Buratino unplaced five times since, and ditto the Prix Morny (in fact, the runner-up there has not trained on).
MOORE MAGIC TO PUT O’BRIEN IN HEAVEN
2.35 Ascot (Fillies And Mares) Last year’s winner, Simple Verse, switches to the opening stayers’ championship, but runner-up Journey is back for more, with only three runs (two wins) on the scoresheet this season.
Also lightly raced is three runs three wins Zhukova, Dermot Weld’s Irish raider, another back with a bang from a long absence on the last day.
Speedy Boarding took a 10lb leap forward when she won the Opera at the Arc meeting. But the three I’ve mentioned so far are all older mares.
In fact, in eight years, three-year-old fillies lead 5-3. Among them this year, the improver Seventh Heaven is well clear on form; has beaten Even Song twice and Architect twice. And both Seventh Heaven and Even Song have beaten Queen’s Trust.
Daqman’s Verdict: On a day of celebration for Jim Crowley, I already have Ryan Moore stealing the limelight with a Champions Day treble! Seventh Heaven would put another £340,260 in Aidan O’Brien’s wallet, taking him past £12.5m.
MINDING MAKES THE BALLYDOYLE POT £13m
3.10 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes) This is tougher than the handicap! If it were considered as a handicap, you might have 9st 7lb Galileo Gold, 9st 6lb Ribchester, 9st 5lb each Jet Setting and Minding, according to the official ratings, which have them between 122-120.
And you’d probably have to improve the official figure for Awtaad (118), if there’s cut in the ground. The going was changed to good last night but showers were forecast for this morning.
I would not look beyond the three-year-olds I’ve named – the age group is 7-3 up on older horses, with Aidan O’Brien saddling three winners in the decade – and you wouldn’t look beyond the market leaders, with five favourites having scored and zero success at odds bigger than 11-2 SP.
It’s a tremendous set-to of the winners of the English and the Irish 1,000 Guineas, Epsom Oaks, Jersey Stakes, Jacques le Marois and St James’s Palace Stakes, to name but a few, as they say.
Daqman’s Verdict: Yet again, Ryan Moore has the ace of rides on Minding, who seems adaptable to distance and demand: rear runner, pace runner, 1m, 1m 2f, or 1m 4f.
But that’s just it! Can she really hold her form since May after such a season; is she good enough to beat the colts? Her third in the Irish Champion Stakes suggests she’s a couple of lengths off the very best of 2016. She puts the O’Brien earnings above the £13m.
I can’t take Ribchester, who beat a 115-rated at Deauville, and a 103 rated at Royal Ascot, albeit he and Galileo Gold were separated a short-head a Goodwood, and Galileo Gold has twice beaten Awtaad, who has yet to live up to his Curragh 2,000 Guineas win.
It’s like shuffling a pack of picture cards, with the mighty filly Minding likely to trump them all (here am I, groping for a result).
ALMANZOR IS THE CHAMPION OF EUROPE
3.45 Ascot (Champion Stakes) Minding , said I above, is a couple of lengths off the very best, by which I meant the Irish Champion Stakes one-two in front of her at Leopardstown 35 days ago: Almanzor (pictured) and Found.
Fascinating Rock last year beat Found and Jack Hobbs at 10-1 and only power favourites Frankel and New Approach have intervened for backers in a series of surprises from 11-4 to 14-1.
Whether run at Newmarket or Ascot, all 10 winners in the decade have come from stalls 1 to 8, which doesn’t help Found and Fascinating Rock.
Daqman’s verdict: This is not a race that O’Brien wins, Found is out too quickly after her Arc success and, as my reader knows, I am a super-fan of the dashing Almanzor. Could have won the Derby; would have won the Arc.
CROWLEY TO FINISH WITH 30.0 SENSATION
4.25 Ascot (Balmoral Handicap) Punters dazzled by the diamond-studded card of champions are still grateful for a handicap – thankyou, Quipco – the only medium which will provide a pot of gold for the ordinary man.
So let’s bring back my own Pot Of Gold Bet, where I try to find something which is too big in the betting.
For that I need to price up the race first and compare my version of the market with what you BETDAQ layers offer.
I then stake the horse at the bigger offer but with the amount I would have needed to land 100 points at ‘my price,’ so that I earn a bonus and win more than the ‘ton.’
Five–year-olds have won both runnings of this, with stalls 10, 12 (two) and 13 (two) supplying five of the six places, suggesting that the inside draw gets trapped and those in high stalls waste their energy out wide or get swallowed up if they drop in behind.
At the beginning of the month, over 7f, Firmament (a 1m winner at York) ran second to the improver Librisa Breeze, when the order in by stall was 16, 8, 10, 11.
Gm Hopkins was unable to get room for a finishing burst when second last year but beat Master The World (third) and Donncha (fourth), with the 2014 winner, Bronze Angel well behind.
Librisa Breeze was also runner-up in the Royal Hunt Cup, with Donncha and Gm Hopkins in rear, but Instant Attraction a coupole of lengths behind him, seventh.
Now, since Insant Attraction, was subsequently remote behind Sea Wild in the Irish Cambridgeshire, my eye goes to the Ger Lyons’ four-year-old winner in stall 19.
Third Time Lucky, winner of the 2015 Cambridgeshire, was in the thick of it again, fourth this year but closely handicapped with the fifth horse home, Zhui Feng (Jim Crowley). Botch have high stalls.
It would be a dramatic ending on his championship day for Crowley to win for Amanda Perrett, who was so long his patron when no one else could see a champion’s talent in him.
The hidden horse is Remarkable, stablemate of Gm Hopkins. He ran well behind Ribchester in a Group 3 and was hampered in the Ascot 7f race when Librisa Breeze beat Firmament.
Daqman’s verdict: Of the low numbers, I don’t think Morando (3.2 place lay) has enough experience to be favourite here; Yuften is not fully exposed but, contrary to the pundits’ opinion, I fancy Remarkable (20.0 on BETDAQ) to improve for the step up to a mile.
Third Time Lucky should be thereabouts among the high numbers but is short enough at 9.2. Sea Wolf ought to be no more than that on the collateral form, and Zhui Feng is better than a 30.0 shot.
JUMPS FANS AWAY FROM THE ASCOT HASSLE
4.10 Ffos Las (Welsh Champion Hurdle) Jumps fans have three meetings today, with their own championship race here at Ffos Las.
Despite successful gambles on Hassle (favourite four times in a row; won four out of seven), the handicapper refused to move him up more than the odd pound – 6lb in all from a rating of 119 – until finally he had to act when the gelding took a Listed handicap off 125. He’s 9.8 here in a seven-runner race.
Charlie Hammond’s 7lb claim helps to nullify his 10lb whacking for that and he’s a threat to Garde La Victoire, the Greatwood Hurdle winner of 2014, whose chasing career started well but stalled at the big meets of Cheltenham and Aintree. Gardez 5.9!
DAQMAN BETS
FLAT: CHAMPIONS DAY: 1.25 Ascot
BANKER: BET 20pts win ORDER OF ST GEORGE
2.00 Ascot
BET (to win 30 points) 4.5pts win TWILIGHT SON
2.35 Ascot
BET (win 20) 12pts win SEVENTH HEAVEN
3.10 Ascot
BET (win 20) 10pts win MINDING
3.45 Ascot
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) ALMANZOR
4.25 Ascot
POT-OF-GOLD TON-UP BETS: 10pts win SEA WOLF (rated 10-1 backed at 20.0, so win 190); 5pts win ZHUI FENG (rated 20-1 backed at 30.0, so win 145 points) 5pts win REMARKABLE; plus PLACE LAY to lose 10pts MORANDO
JUMPS: CHAMPION HURDLE: 4.10 Ffos Las
BET 6pts win GARDE LA VICTOIRE and 3.4pts win HASSLE
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