NAPS: FOUR IN A ROW: Daqman’s nap was withdrawn yesterday, so he remains on four in a row with a sequence of 11 best bets up out of 15, as follows: 111114123131111.
BANKERS: SEVEN CONSECUTIVE: The sequence involves part of a winning bankers streak of seven maximum-stakes bets up in a row. Bull’s-Eye Bets are 220 points in profit.
VALUE BETS: DAQMAN 67, PRICEWISE 30: That’s for the Flat but the overall total is 106-42 since November 23 last year, with Daqman hoping to add to his 10-1 Cesarewitch winner.
INTEGRAL COULD SAIL HOME IN QEII
You have been warned. At 22-1, 20-1, 16-1 (twice) and 10-1, winners in yesterday’s soft going, all trailing in up to nearly 6secs slow at Newmarket, could herald another set of shockers in even worse conditions on Champions Day at Ascot this afternoon.
Whatever you do, don’t waste a pound on yesterday’s five two-year-old winners ante-post for next year’s Classics. Future champions they are not.
And today’s British Champions are being run without the big names. What do they expect more than halfway through October? Remember all those horrendous weekday cards of dross; is this why we suffer them?
1.35 Ascot (Champions Long Distance Cup) The battle for gold between Leading Light and Estimate produced a photo-finish at Royal Ascot on firm ground in June. That road is now a cart-track, by comparison.
Estimate has a weight pull today and her Doncaster Cup win brings in runner-up Whiplash Willie at this shorter trip.
Big Orange is the improver (two stone this season), Forgotten Rules the dark horse, trying to emulate the rise and rise of the same stable’s Rite Of Passage from bumper winner to Cup horse.
I shall have a bit each way on six-year-old Whiplash Willie (20.0 on BETDAQ early mouse) to break the Irish stranglehold on this race – they’re three out of three – with eight of the last 12 winners being of his age or over, suggesting that, even before the rain, this is a tough scrap for experienced stayers.
2.20 Ascot (Champions Sprint) This has been a future-champions’ race in the last two years, with Maarek winning the year before his Abbaye and Slade Power the year before his Golden Jubilee and July Cup.
The proof is in the winning ages, three-year-olds beating four-year-olds 17-15, with just a couple of five-year-old winners. No older horses.
Gregorian, drawn on the wrong side, was unlucky to lose the July Cup, the only 6f race of his career until today. He flopped afterwards at Deauville (another half-furlong) but has never been a traveller (form outside England 0200; form below Group 1 on soft-heavy at home 1121).
The 25,000-guinea bargain buy G Force is the big improver, beating Gordon Lord Byron in the Haydock Sprint, but has no form on the soft.
Jack Dexter and my tip that day, Viztoria, were second and third in this on the soft last season and Viztoria has just returned to form after a light campaign. I got 8.2 Viztoria and 12.0 Gregorian
2.55 Ascot (Fillies and Mares) In its old form, three-year-olds won this 24-6, but four-year-olds are on a hat-trick in the Ascot version on soft ground.
Of the Classic generation, Madame Chiang loves it soft but the fillies she’s beaten in her life amount to very little, whereas Hadaatha stopped a good mare in Albasharah, who reopposes today, in a solid stakes race at Yarmouth last month, and was third in the Opera on Arc day at Longchamp.
A neck behind her was Tarfasha, the Blandford Stakes winner over Chicquita, another very lightly raced sort who was giving 7lb that day and comes out top rated of the older animals here.
With the BETDAQ orange a tasty 103% as I write, I took 7.6 Chicquita and 8.0 Hadaatha this morning.
3.30 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes, Champions Mile) Another good race for three-year-olds (they led four-year-olds 25-12) and, sure enough, Night Of Thunder is favourite, but it’s mind-boggling to look back on him as 2,000 Guineas winner over Kingman.
However, though he hasn’t won since, he was in a blanket finish to the Prix du Moulin, just beaten by Charm Spirit, who had earlier won the Jean Prat in very soft ground.
The skills of Sir Michael Stoute with older horses and with fillies and mares has been revealed yet again this season, and he’s got Integral to win at Royal Ascot on firm, quicken off soft ground in the Falmouth and then beat the 1,000 Guineas winner, Miss France, in the Sun Chariot.
Of the older horses, Custom Cut was progressive all summer (holds Captain Cat). Tullius, behind them both last month, likes the ground.
But Integral has had only 10 races in her life and still looks progressive. I got 6.6 on BETDAQ in, again, a 103% orange. That’s punter-friendly. That guarantees you’ve got value.
4.05 Ascot (Champion Stakes) This is hardly a race of champions, with the 2011 winner, Cirrus Des Aigles, fronting the market (believe it or not, another 103% on BETDAQ this morning)
But he’s back to form this year with three consecutive Group 1s, including defeat of Treve on very soft ground when she was supposedly out of form in the Spring.
The entire Noble Mission has had a break since his Group-1 hat-trick bid was narrowly foiled in Germany. His trainer, Lady Cecil, has been out of form recently.
Derby winner of 2013, Ruler Of The World (that’s another result that boggles the mind to look back on) returned to form in the Prix Foy before being beaten in the Arc and he has no form on the soft.
Free Eagle is rated only a couple of pounds behind Cirrus Des Aigles and Ruler Of The World, despite having had only three career runs, and he’s the only one being backed against the favourite, as I write. He could step up and win this, if he’s allowed to run.
The wrong price in BETDAQ offers this morning was Pethers Moon at 25.0 (what, a 102% orange? Superb!), who has looked very strong on deep ground over 1m 4f in Group 2 and Group 3 and will be staying on when some of these 10-furlong types have weakened.
4.45 Ascot A cavalry charge over the straight mile to finish with, in the churned-up ground, but we shouldn’t complain: they’ve taken most 24lb-range handicaps away from us (and another one will go at next year’s royal meeting).
High numbers dominated at the royal meeting, and I fancy the Cambridgeshire fourth, Buckstay (stall 20 at 22.0 on BETDAQ) and the progressive Baraweez (15 at 19.0).
ASTRACAD LOOKS THE HANDICAP PICK
2.35 Cheltenham This has produced a winner and three placed in the PP Gold Cup (November) in the last seven seasons, that winner being Johns Spirit first time out last year.
He’s back for more today but 19lb higher, a pound short of a stone worse off with the third that day, Sew On Target, who went on to be second to him in the PP Gold Cup.
But the one with the big breaks in the handicap is Astracad, fifth last year but now 22lb better with Johns Spirit and 9lb with Sew On Target. He was 8.2 this morning ion the BETDAQ orange for a stable in form. Place nap.
It might not be soft enough for Bennys Mist, while connections of Claret Cloak, third in the Grand Annual in March, are hoping the showers stay away. Persian Snow has a moderate record at Cheltenham.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win stakes to win 20 points, except Bull’s-Eye Bet wins 50; but, with Astracad, both win and place stakes are to win 20)
BET 2pts win and place WHIPLASH WILLIE (1.45 Ascot)
BET 2.7pts win VIZTORIA, and 1.8pts win and place GREGORIAN (2.20 Ascot)
BET 2.7pts win and 11pts place (place nap) ASTRACAD (2.35 Cheltenham)
BET 3pts win CHICQUITA and 2.8pts win HADAATHA (2.55 Ascot)
BULL’S-EYE BET 9pts win INTEGRAL (3.30 Ascot)
BET 0.8pts win and place PETHER’S MOON (4.05 Ascot)
BET 1pt win and place on each BARAWEEZ and BUCKSTAY (4.45 Ascot)
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