NINE-RACE CHELTENHAM BONANZA: Nine races at Cheltenham today.. and somewhere among them Festival winners are waiting to happen. Daqman tells you which of the trials produced the big winners. Daqman and Pricewise clash in the 1.45 and 2.15 Cheltenham and 3.40 Doncaster.
DAQMAN IS MISTER 50 PER CENT: Daqman has 50%-plus strike rates on naps and horses to follow and is well clear in his value-bets challenge to Pricewise. Current figures are:
WIN: Fortune Cookies (see yesterday): 17 wins from 30 starts
WIN: Naps: 14 up from 27 this year (206 points profit)
WIN: Challenge: Daqman 11, Pricewise 4 (Daqman 40 points clear)
McMANUS PARCS A BUS!
12.00 Cheltenham Alan King (Rainbow Dreamer) has won this four times in the decade with a subsequent winner, two seconds and a third in the Triumph Hurdle, but Nicky Henderson (Charli Parcs) has had three of the last four, among them his Triumph winner, Peace And Co (2015).
King chooses Rainbow Dreamer (in first-time visor) against Charli Parcs instead of Master Blueyes, who was second to that one at Kempton.
The race was spoiled for betting this morning because Charli Parcs and dual Cheltenham Triumph trials winner Defi Du Seuil are both owned by J P McManus, and the stable was not certain Defi would run unless the going became heavy.
12.35 Cheltenham The Giant Bolster won the race in 2011 but his Gold Cup exploits (second, third, fourth) began the following year, after he’d won the next race on today’s card (the 1.10).
He was capable of lugging 11st 12lb to win this but only one other in the decade managed to carry more than 11st 3lb.
I wouldn’t want anything over the age of seven in such a novice handicap so – for both age and weight – I’m drawn to More Buck’s. He hasn’t been beating much but, as a front-runner, could be hard to catch, dropped back half a mile.
The hooded Singlefarmpayment is another strong traveler, and Buck’s stablemate, Ibis Du Rheu, won the Martin Pipe over CD at last year’s festival. I think Nicholls has it sorted; so I took the BETDAQ 7.2 Ibis Du Rheu and 16.5 More Buck’s.
ASO! HE’S AN IMPROVER..
1.10 Cheltenham Hat-trick-seeker Annacotty and Tenor Nivernais, first and second last year, both needed morning rain. A freshened-up Annacotty (18.0 on BETDAQ) is the clear choice of those two again, with Tenor Nivernais 20lb higher than his best winning mark.
But you could fancy Tenor’s stablemate, Aso, on his second to Frodon over CD in December. Aso had finished behind Buywise on a sounder surface here in November, so again it’s a question of the ground.
Seven-year-old improvers have won this three times in the last seven years, and Aso fits the bill at 9.0 on BETDAQ. Saphir Du Rheu, winner of the Cleeve Hurdle on this card in 2015, runs for the race’s sponsor but has no reason on form to be morning favourite at this trip.
Lightweight Foxtail Hill has to climb the grades but is getting a stone and more from the fancied horses, and the 14.5 offer could be placed.
SO! UN DE SCEAUX BANKER
1.45 Cheltenham (Clarence House Chase) Carried forward from last Saturday’s abandoned Ascot card, this race has thrown up four Champion Chase winners for Paul Nicholls, including Master Minded, and Dodging Bullets, as well as Gary Moore’s Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre, twice champions for Nicky Henderson.
Today’s field will break with tradition in that only once in 25 years has the winner of this been aged nine or more (Call Equiname for Nichols in 1999 and he went on to be champion, too).
There is no youngster running today. All are nine and over and, though Un De Sceaux is prominent in both Champion Chase and Ryanair betting for Cheltenham, it’s hard to see old boys like this threatening the big three for March over 2m – Douvan, Fox Norton and Altior, all seven – and the Ryanair looks much easier.
So today is the oldies’ champion chase and, with rain in mind, Un De Sceaux has the credentials and will be hard to beat, suited by the likely fast pace from such as Uxizandre (may need the run after a long absence).
Special Tiara (a nose) and Dodging Bullets (a length) were not far off Un De Sceaux on good ground last Spring but this is soft at least.
Top gamble’s reputation largely rests on his beating Dodging Bullets a year or so ago but that was Bullets’ first run after a long absence, so dodgy form.
8.0 SMAD IS OUT OF PLACE
2.15 Cheltenham (Cotswold Chase) Smad Place cruised home in this last year, eight lengths better at the weights than Many Clouds, who had beaten him the equivalent of 10 lengths the year before.
Thistlecrack’s sensational four-timer has all been on good, or good-to-soft, ground and – if it turns soft-heavy today –he does not have the margin over Smad Place which is suggested by a market of 1.48 Thistlecrack and 8.0 Smad Place this morning. That can’t be right!
3.25 Cheltenham At Fisher’s Cross, Bobs Worth and Wichita Lineman won this and followed up in the Neptune. None of today’s trialists are in the current BETDAQ market for the festival. One of them will be, but which one? Maybe Wholestone (5.5 taken on BETDAQ).
3.40 Doncaster When Ziga Boy won it last year, his rating was 4lb lower but he has 11lb more weight today because it’s not a field of such quality.
The runner-up, Coologue, is worse off at the weights and Ziga Boy (13.5 offers) has got his ground again, as has Caid Du Berlais. (14.5).
The rest of Bigbadjohn’s form suggests he was flattered by running up to Thistlecrack at Newbury, and Southfield Royale is coming back from a long break.
4.00 Cheltenham (Cleeve Hurdle) Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s and Thistlecrack all won this on the way to World Hurdle success, and Uknowhatimeahnarry is expected to do the same, having twice seen off Ballyoptic, on the last day with Un Temps Pour Tout 14 lengths off them.
Both are younger than the favourite and could improve but the real potential is with the ex-French mare, Kotkikova, who will revel in soft-heavy and is big at 19.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 30 points, except the banker)
BACK 5pts win IBIS DU RHEU, and 2pts win and place MORE BUCK’S (12.35 Cheltenham)
BACK 3.75pts win ASO, and 1.75pts win and place ANNACOTTY (1.10 Cheltenham)
BANKER 20pts win (nap) UN DE SCEAUX (1.45 Cheltenham)
BACK 4.25pts win and place SMAD PLACE (2.15 Cheltenham)
BACK 6.5pts win WHOLESTONE (3.25 Cheltenham)
BACK 2.5pts win and place on each CAID DU BERLAIS and ZIGA BOY (3.40 Doncaster)
BACK 1.5pts win and place KOTKIKOVA (4.00 Cheltenham)
FORTUNE COOKIES: Vroum Vroum Mag (3.05 Doncaster) and Thistlecrack (2.15 Cheltenham)
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