QUICK BETDAQ PROFIT BY DAQMAN’S WINNING NAP: Daqman warned yesterday that his winning nap, Quick Jack, ‘may be a cut above them at the weights.’ Quick Jack (WON 15-8) was also a cut above the bookies for value on BETDAQ, with 3.55 available in morning exchanges.
THE TIPS ARE FREE: THE PRICE IS RIGHT: This followed Free Thinking (WON 1-1) on Thursday when Daqman’s column took 3.5 on BETDAQ. His tips are free and the price is right.
MORE BIG VALUE AT CHELTENHAM: Your Cheltenham Saturday is value all the way, with BETDAQ offers in Daqman betting races totaling 104, 103, 104, 103 and 103%. Compare that with the likes of 129% for one of the big races, as he explains.
12.40 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial) Recently only Katchit – seven years ago for Alan King – has gone on to win the Triumph Hurdle itself the following March.
Paul Nicholls is on a hat-trick of winners – one of his successful pair finished fourth in the big one at the festival and Far West was second last year – as Art Mauresque bids for his four-timer today, a horse from France which Nicholls ‘had been trying to buy for a long time.’
Art Mauresque has run at Auteuil this autumn and won’t mind the ground. Only on Thursday, a Nicholls’ acquisition from Germany, Irving, won first time in England.
Kingy saddles Herod The Great, which is the stable’s ‘Fred Winter horse’, if breeder David Minton is to be believed. On a hat-trick here but stepped up in class.
Azza is a filly, getting 3lb and 7lb from the winners, who has already made a winning transition from France to England and stays further, always a good sign for Cheltenham, but her hurdling has not been fluent as yet.
A line through Lindenhurst says that Guitar Pete has not shown improvement the last twice but has stood still. Abracadabra Sivola was novicey first time.
The one they wanted this morning was Royal Irish Hussar, who stepped up a ton on his debut to win head in chest at Wetherby.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: With a 104% total of the BETDAQ offers as percentages, this is punter-friendly, particularly for those prepared to oppose the favourite.
It’s not a Nicky Henderson race, so I took 6.2 the Nicholls, Art Mauresque, with the same stake Royal Irish Hussar at around even money, as my saver.
1.15 Cheltenham Comply Or Die won the Grand National from here. The standout Cheltenham winner of this was Albertas Run (2007), who went on to win the RSA and the Ryanair twice. Otherwise Festival consequences are moderate.
All bar African Gold have already jumped fences. Sam Winner has run in chases but didn’t jump the fences (two tries: FF).
African Gold ran second to At Fishers Cross in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival (Le Bec well behind) and is 2lb in front of Shutthefrontdoor on hurdles ratings but that one has already won over fences.
You wouldn’t expect to see a nine-year-old in the winners’ enclosure but Dessie Hughes is hoping that White Star Line’s experience will bring him into it on the tricky course for novices.
Bob Ford has also seen fences. He ran up to Taquin Du Seuil, the horse that turned over Oscar Whiskey yesterday, yet ‘Bob’ is 41.0 as I write, marked down as a heavy-ground horse.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: African Gold, Bob Ford and Shutthefrontdoor are the ones bred for the trip, with African Gold vulnerable on his chasing debut and Bob Ford out over the betting weir like a dog on a raft. So it’s an open and Shut case for Tony McCoy in another magic orange of BETDAQ offers (103%).
1.50 Cheltenham (M G Chase) Some 7 out of 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less, and only one outright favourite has won in the decade.
David Pipe has high hopes of long-distance races with Goulanes, but says he wants softer ground. Spring Heeled is another youngster with a future but is up nearly a mile on his winning distance, though the surface will suit.
Tour Des Champs has a turnaround of 10lb on Scottish National winner Godsmejudge plus the advantage of a fine reappearance on today’s course when runner-up over regulation fences to yesterday’s cross-country hero, Balthazar King.
Second in this last year, Bradley, one of Fergal O’Brien’s two good chances – Alvarado looks a bit short on class – was staying on behind Balthazar King but was an unlucky horse in the Spring.
He was ‘never traveling’ in the Warwick Classic (3m 5f) and brought down in the Scottish National. He is now 26lb better off with Godsmejudge (second and first respectively in those races) but 9lb worse with Tour Des Champs (fourth in that National).
Keep an eye on the grey Quentin Collonges but all his best success has come in February, March and April, and he is expected to need the race this afernoon.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Bradley will never have a better chance at the weights but lines through him suggest that Tour Des Champs is the one to be on at 8.8. at the time of writing, with the BETFDAQ oiffers as low as 104% overall. Last year’s Total SP returned by the bookmakers was 129%.
2.30 Cheltenham (P P Gold Cup) Only rarely (1-10 in the last decade) does a horse older than seven win this, and the successful young bloods usually carry below 11st 2lb (8-10).
Ballynagour is in the right place in the handicap but is not a strong sort and has to be caught fresh. Perfect then. Not so, since David Pipe adds that he is worried the race will come too soon after a late preparation at home. And all three wins have come on soft ground.
Johns Spirit had half a dozen of these behind over CD recently but Astracad and Woolcombe Folly are weighted to go close in their bid for revenge.
Astracad is also better off with Conquisto, who beat him with that Tony McCoy drive at Aintree. I see Conquisto as a flat-track horse, and McCoy (who can’t do the weight on Johns Spirit) deserts both Conquisto and Colour Squadron in favour of Tap Night.
But Tap Night was 15 lengths behind Rajdhani Express in the Soring and not much better off. And Colour Squadron, fifth to the Express at Cheltenham Festival, hasn’t won a chase, nor indeed a race, in nearly two years.
Nicky Henderson claims off Rajdhani Express which puts him below 11st., recognizing that soft ground would be better, and expectant of a big run by his own sound-surface runner, Finaian’s Rainbow, despite the huge weight.
It’s first time in any handicap, hurdles or chase, for the 2012 Champion Chase winner, though he looks close to his old rival Wishfull Thinking, if you add the edge of that one’s recent run. Champion Court’s chase form at Cheltenham is 231201 and he has two years on them both.
A third Henderson runner, the mare Nadiya De La Vega, has form figures when fresh of 1111 and was third in this race last year off a 5lb higher rating.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Nicky Henderson’s Nadiya De La Vega looks value to step up on 2012 at 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning in a superlative 103% orange. So I’ll be backing stablemate Rajdhani Express (13.0) as well.
3.35 Cheltenham A five-year-old has won this seven years running. Four of the last five won again next time out (get your note book out!) but none went on to Festival glory.
That stat won’t worry Paul Nicholls who so thinks he has a world-beater here that he is nervously going round the yard begging everyone not to hype it up.
Port Melon (I took 5.0) will need to be good to cope with Timesremembered, though that one’s Persian War win on the soft wasn’t in the greatest race and conditions are different today. Total percentages add up to 103.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Willie Mullins makes this interesting with Indevan but I fancy he’s having a look-see at Persian War form (Timesremembered) and Port Melon rates the nap on my stable information, though I’ll save on ‘Times’ in case Port Melon hasn’t read the script.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win on each ART MAURESQUE and (stakes saver) ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR (12.40 Cheltenham)
BET 7pts win SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (1.15 Cheltenham)
BET 2.5pts win on each BRADLEY and TOUR DES CHAMPS (1.50 Cheltenham)
BET 1.6pts win RAJDHANI EXPRESS and 1.6pts win NADIYA DE LA VEGA (2.30 Cheltenham)
BET 5pts win (nap) PORT MELON and 2pts win (stakes saver) TIMESREMEMBERED (3.35 Cheltenham)
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