THE GOING IS TOUGH AT CHELTENHAM: Daqman was two lengths clear at the last on Calico (2nd 6-1) then watched a gamble on Latenightpass (2nd 9-2 from 9.0 on BETDAQ) fail by little more than a length. That was day one at Cheltenham. There’s a second chance today! But the ground is now soft.
THERE’S ALWAYS TOMORROW: In fact, there’s a third day at Cheltenham tomorrow. Then Daqman will be assessing the season so far with an eye to forming his Fortune Cookies horses to follow.
FRENCH FORM LOOKS TOP GRADE
⭕ 12.35 Cheltenham Defi Du Seuil (2016) took this trial on the way to winning the Triumph Hurdle and Allmankind (2019) scored eight times in his career, including in Grade 2 three times and the Grade-1 Henry V111 Novices Chase at Sandown.
Harry Cobden says he’s confident Burdett Road is a Triumph horse, after scoring on him at Huntingdon two weeks back.
Nico De Boinville, who had a great ride on Impose Toi yesterday, partners Eagle Prince for Brian Ellison, who bagged the November Handicap last weekend.
But Latin Verse, a neck second to Eagle Prince at Sedgefield, could only get to within 16 lengths of Gifted Angel at Kempton, despite receiving 10lb.
The question is whether the home team can bring the same form to bear on soft ground: Gifted Angel has been beaten six times out of six on such a surface.
Burdett Road is Group standard on the Flat but Milan Tino has quickly reached a Grade-1 rating over hurdles in France, ankle deep over further at Auteuil.
Milan Tino could herald a double for French form ahead of Placenet in the handicap hurdle (3.55), with more rain expected on soft going at the Cheltenham.
SAM THINKS THIS A GOOD RISK
⭕ 1.45 Cheltenham Thistlecrack and Black Corton are previous finds from this 3m novices’ chase, and last year’s winner, The Real Whacker, who went on to beat Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory, now runs in the next race here today.
Good Risk At All was always going to be a chaser, and was impressive first time over fences, 16 lengths better than Alaphilippe.
Sam Twiston-Davies had two of his dad’s horses to choose from (Broadway Boy and Weveallbeencaught) and Mister Coffey tries to get some confidence back, plagued by seconditis with form in the last year of 322202230.
He hasn’t won for three years and that last ‘0’ was in the Grand National (eighth), which is his target again.
NOW A SOFT TOUCH FOR NICHOLLS
⭕ 2.20 Cheltenham (Autumn Gold Cup) Horses with a going preference for good ground, like Final Orders and Whistleinthedark, have become friendless in the market.
Only four winners in 20 years have carried more than 11st 2lb and soft going usually increases that probability. Some 13 of the 20 winners have been aged six or seven.
The rain is good news for Paul Nicholls, with Il Ridotto and Stage Star both soft ground winners.
Il Ridotto was fourth to GA Law in this chase last season but then won the equivalent test at the January Cheltenham trials. Freddie Gingell’s 7lb claim gives him an outstanding chance.
Stage Star has won first time out in each of his three previous seasons. He took the Turners at the festival in March from Not Long Till May, who has a 3lb pull for three and a quarter lengths. It doesn’t look enough.
The Nicholls pair get 7lb and 18lb from front-runner Real Whacker, who is 3-3 at Cheltenham but hasn’t seen a racecourse for 248 days and would be the first top weight to win since 1994.
Unexpected Party was well beaten twice by Stage Star at Cheltenham in January and March, and Notlongtillmay was ‘no match’ (says Raceform) for Stage Star in the Turners.
I won’t be in any hurry to have a bet for the festival after this race, whichever way it goes.
Three years out of four, winners of this Autumn Gold Cup were all second at Cheltenham in March: Taquin Du Seuil (2016) in the Coral Cup; Splash Of Ginge (2017) and Happy Diva (2019) both in the Brown Advisory.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6 Stage Star 13 Il Ridotto
STEEL YOURSELF FOR A 20-1 PLACE
⭕ 2.55 Cheltenham French soft-heavy winner for Guillaume Macaire, Placenet is upped to 3m by new trainer, David Pipe, who won this with a similar buy, Katkeau, in 2014.
Buddy One, third in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival in March, did so well in winning at Galway (2m 6f) the last day that he’s been hiked 9lb.
The solid three-miler in the race, with form figures 113312, Judicial Law has climbed 18lb since the Spring, but prefers good, good to soft. So does lightly-weighted The Newest One, who has been hard to place (1-20 over all disciplines).
A big punt from 14-1 to around 6-1 when the bookies opened their markets but a maiden after 11 starts, Maka De Vassy, a good third at Exeter in October, has also shown his best form on good ground.
Yet harder to understand is money for Chantry House, reverting to hurdles after chase mishaps of P/UF, his last strike over hurdles being in February, 2020.
Like Chantry House, Shan Blue and Come On Teddy also revert to hurdles, all looking for a confidence booster and will be back over fences after this.
Polish has finished second at two different levels over hurdles and in both novice chases and open events (22222), despite sliding down the handicap.
Real Steel is having his first race over hurdles since 2018 but is 40lb below his best mark chasing. You wouldn’t think the Munster National a good prep for this but, in looking for a 20-1 outsider, I need guts and tenacity over this three miles.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.35 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 10pts win MILAN TINO
BET 4pts (saver) BURDETT ROAD
1.45 Cheltenham (win 22, nap)
BET 10pts win GOOD RISK AT ALL
2.20 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 10pts win STAGE STAR
BET 3.75pts win, 1.75pts place IL RIDOTTO
2.55 Cheltenham (win 20, win 50)
BET 5pts win PLACENET
BET 2.5pts win and place REAL STEEL
3.11 Lingfield (win 50)
BET 4pts win and 1pt place SUMMERGHAND
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