SUPER FOUR NAPS UP IN A WEEK: Daqman made it four winning naps in a week when he upped the stake to land a 20-point supernap yesterday, his eighth successful best bet in 2024. That’s a 30% strike-rate this year, following on his winning total for 2023 of 111 winners.
WON 8-13 HE’S AN ANGEL (Friday supernap)
WON 1-1 DESTINADO (Wednesday nap)
WON 9-4 KING VIKTOR (Tuesday nap)
WON 11-8 OH SO GRAND (Saturday nap)
DAQMAN TRIPLE PRICEWISE HITS: Daqman leads Pricewise of the Racing Post 22-7 in the search for value, with 642.49 points between them (Daqman +318.33, Pricewise -324.16). He argues that Cheltenham has favourites too hot to handle or each-way bets without enough runners!
CHELTENHAM TRIALS-DAY 8
⭕ 12.05 Cheltenham (Triumph Trial) Burdett Road 137, Milan Tino 136, Sir Gino 131 are my ratings for this but these are four-year-olds charting a future, and to all three figures should be added a + sign.
🔺 FORTUNE COOKIE: Burdett Road has already won a Grade 2 here on the Old course and the extra few yards shouldn’t bother him.
Milan Tino was no match for Burdett Road that day and a difference of 5lb now is strictly not enough.
Sir Gino was an easy winner at Kempton over one that was then an easy winner at Ludlow. One of the ‘could be anything’ runners that will baffle punters today.
⭕ 12.40 Cheltenham This produced the Turners winner, Stage Star, for Paul Nichlolls last year, and the same stable has another rising star here in Ginny’s Destiny, who looks good value at BETDAQ 4.9.
⭕ 1.15 Cheltenham Paul Nicholls, who won this with Frodon (2018), took it last year with Il Ridotto, who is joined today by stablemate Hitman, but it’s unlike the yard not have a six-year-old for this, and I favour the progressive Victtorino at 5.5 on BETDAQ.
⭕ 1.50 Cheltenham (Cotswold Chase) This is the old warrior Royal Pagaille’s best trip but he needs it soft, for preference at Haydock (4 out of 5). Ahoy Senor won this in 2023 but pulled up the last twice.
Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker has not been at his best since that day, and Datsalrightgino – 3m 2f big race winner at Newbury – may have most to fear from the novice Stay Away Fay, in whom Paul Nicholls has a lot of confidence; is it overconfidence at this stage of his career?
⭕ 2.25 Cheltenham (Clarence House Chase) 🔺 FORTUNE COOKIE Arkle runner-up Jonbon has won four in a row since then, lifting his rating to 170. He’s twice slammed Nube Negra, who got within three lengths of Editeur Du Gite the last day at Kempton.
That leaves the Graded handicapper, Fugitif, as the danger, the more so if his form is earlier boosted by his December Gold Cup runner-up, Il Ridotto (runs 1.15).
⭕ 3.00 Cheltenham (International Hurdle) These are not in the same class of superstar winners of this, My Tent Or Yours and The New One (three times); we’re talking at least 11lb behind.
If you could pick one, currently on 147, to improve that far, it would be Triumph Hurdle winner, Lossiemouth, but Mares Novices winner at the festival, Love Envoi, subsequently ran up to ex-champion Honeysuckle in the Mares Hurdle.
⭕ 3.35 Cheltenham (Cleeve Hurdle) This is among SIX races on this card of between only five and seven runners, a nail – six nails! – in the coffin of each-way and place betting.
So, among the myriad of novice races that are the usual curse to punters, you have Graded races that have become oddball events with Press-and-telly ravings about entertainment.
Can you really bet on whether a 12-year-old ex-champion staying hurdler (Paisley Park) can beat a Grand National winner (Noble Yeats), and why would you?
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham 🔺 FORTUNE COOKIE: Choccabloc at 22.0 on BETDAQ. A non-runner spoils the best each-way bet of the day, reducing the field to seven.
Johnnywho (see Tuesday’s Daqman) trials for the Supreme and Gidleigh Park could be anything but is too short in a race like this, even to be a saver.
BRIDGE TO THE 2025 NATIONAL
SATURDAY SMILE (What a double this would be!) On-line headline Posted yesterday: ‘Why this horse can win at Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday.’
⭕ 3.15 Doncaster (Great Yorkshire Chase) Good ground opens this up for the top-weights, but only one favourite has won since 2008. It’s not a stats race; all ages win from all sections of the handicap.
1 FAMOUS BRIDGE I picked this one as Nicky Richards’ Grand National horse but he’s being saved for another year. He’s won four chases, jumping with zest and staying with courage.
2 SAIL AWAY When Forward Plaπ had Twoshotsoftequila third, Whistleinthedark fourth and Sail Away only sixth, when winning over the CD in December, the runner-up was Mister Coffey.
Sail Away is better off today and made all at Ayr to beat Forward Plan 11 lengths in the Scottish Champion Novice last Spring.
3 MISTER COFFEY, the 2022 Kim Muir runner-up, is only marginally better off but has first-time cheekpieces.
HASCOEUR CLERMONT Ignore Gavin Cromwell at your peril: I opposed Brides Hill on Thursday and it wasn’t wedded bliss; my Pink Legend didn’t run her race.
But Cromwell’s grey Hascoeur Clermont was thumped 13lb for back-to-back autumn success on the soft (Strictlyadancer and Latitude 19 lengths behind here at Cheltenham).
RICHMOND LAKE Donald McCain must have been on the phone to the handicapper after this one was hit 13lb for back-to-back autumn wins on heavy over half a mile shorter than today, and he was dropped 2lb as a New Year present after flopping at Cheltenham in Graded company.
SWEET WILL and Forward Plan were the gambles for this during the week, along with Kandoo Kid. Sweet Will won at Doncaster over hurdles for Gavin Cromwell but hasn’t achieved a lot over fences and was moved to Emmet Mullins.
Kandoo Kid showed 16lb of improvement in the autumn but this first try at 3m over fences, after two good runs over shorter, leaves you guessing.
SURREY QUEST, the Mandarin winner, and last year’s Great Yorkshire winner, Cooper’s Cross, cannot be left out, but one is pushing it for a hat-trick of wins and the other for a hat-trick of PUs.
Betdaq Betting Exchange: 9.5 Famous Bridge, 16 Sail Away, 16 Mister Coffey
DAQMAN’S BETS
🔺 FORTUNE COOKIES
12.05 Cheltenham
BURDETT ROAD
2.25 Cheltenham
JONBON
4.10 Cheltenham
CHOCCABLOC
12.40 Cheltenham (win 20 nap)
BET 5pts win GINNYS DESTINY
1.15 Cheltenham (win 12)
BET 2.5pts win VICTTORINO
1.50 Cheltenham (win 12)
BET 3pts win STAY AWAY FAY
BET 2.5pts win DATSALRIGHTGINO
3.15 Doncaster (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.75pts win FAMOUS BRIDGE
BET 3pts win and place SAIL AWAY
BET 3pts win and place MISTER COFFEY
3.35 Cheltenham (win 10)
BET 3pts win PAISLEY PARK
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