4-1 WINNER AND THE NAP UP: Daqman landed his nap, Victor Hewgo (WON 6-4), yesterday and also picked Josies Orders (WON 4-1) to make a profit on the day, following up his second 12-1 scorer of the week, On His Own, on Thursday.
ANOTHER SATURDAY CLASH WITH PRICEWISE: Daqman is 18-6 up (7-2 in the new year) since he made it his betting business to challenge Pricewise. Today they clash in the 2.25 Cheltenham, 2.50 and 3.25 Leopardstown and the 3.15 Doncaster.
FABULOUS BETDAQ VALUE: Check out that 3.25 Leopardstown, where the Total SP last year was no less than 159%. When Daqman made his selections this morning, the BETDAQ orange added up to 109%.
Championship form should become transparent this weekend. Annie Power, At Fisher’s Cross and Big Buck’s running today, Hurricane Fly, Jezki and Our Conor in Ireland tomorrow, can clear the picture in both Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle.
Today’s pressure is on the maestro, Tony McCoy, who has given the wayward At Fishers Cross special schooling, and on the new kid on the block, Sam Twiston-Davies, riding Big Buck’s for the first time, when they meet in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham (3.35). It’s all to play for.
12.40 Cheltenham This Triumph Hurdle trial has always been Alan King’s stepping-stone to the Festival, with his Katchit, Franchoek, Walkon and Grumeti all winning this in the last seven seasons.
But they’d had between two and six hurdles starts running up to today’s race, whereas Ronaldhino has had just the one and does not sport the blinkers which helped him to success on the Flat in October.
What he has in his favour is between 4lb and 7lb allowance from the others and a penchant for soft-heavy ground.
Goodwood Mirage, owned by the sponsor’s wife, is also inexperienced. Ballyglasheen (first), Kentucky Hyden (second) and Vicenzo Mio (fourth but a winner since on soft) have already run a trial at Cheltenham, a big advantage.
That was on good ground and the winner that day has no known form on soft-heavy, and was receiving weight from Kentucky Hyden. But ‘Hyden’ is still seeking a second win over here after being slammed by Le Rocher last time.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: As this morning’s BETDAQ market suggests, it looks a close-run thing between Vicenzo Mio and Le Rocher.
1.15 Cheltenham If a nine-year-old wins this, it will be the first time for more than a decade and it will be damning to the youngsters hoping to go on from here. Seven winners out of eight have been seven or younger.
The race has been the launchpad for classy young improvers like The Giant Bolster (see 2.25 race) and grand handicappers such as Lacdoudal, both aged six when they won it.
Samingarry narrowly held Annacotty at Chepstow. He has a bigger pull in the weights but needs better ground. Ohio Gold has been a bridesmaid over fences. Eight tries without a win and best form going right-handed.
But he was morning favourite over The Italian Yob (also prefers right-handed course), though he finished behind that one at Exeter over shorter. So did Annacotty, who gives weight all round this afternoon.
Dark Lover has scored on the Old course here but failed in his one try at this sort of trip, whereas Indian Castle has won over further.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Wide open, with 2.2 points separating four runners in the BETDAQ market early doors.
1.50 Cheltenham Though only one horse has won with more than 11st in the decade, Double Ross is clear favourite as I write, bidding for a Cheltenham hat-trick inside six weeks, and with an old-timer, the 2011 winner, Wishfull Thinking, his nearest rival in the betting.
But he is pressed all round by horses he’s beaten who are now better off at the weights: Cedre Bleu, Kumbeshwar, Sew On Target.
Our Mick, twice placed in the Speciality race at the Festival, is clearly a different horse when he’s at Cheltenham, and blinkers first time could put back the edge which has been lacking in recent starts.
Shangani has also gone well at the festival and looks highly dangerous from a lowly mark in the handicap for a trainer having a fine season. Ulck Du Lin is unexposed at a trip he’s been crying out for and is back down the handicap, close to his last winning mark, which was on heavy.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Another open contest but seven of the last nine winners have carried 10st 7lb or less and, in that category, improved form for Ulck Du Lin (17.0 on BETDAQ this morning) at a new trip and a return to form for Shangani (7.0) are one the cards.
2.25 Cheltenham Not a winning favourite in sight in the last decade yet this race has been won in that time by stars like Grey Abbey, Exotic Dancer, Joe Lively, Midnight Chase and Neptune Collonges. That list includes a Gold Cup runner-up and a Grand National winner.
Harry Topper is a soft-ground stayer but will he cope with the hills and dales of Chelters, giving the others a start, as top-weight?
Champion Court has won the Silver Trophy on the course but the question mark for him is today’s trip.
Restless Harry was back to form last time but now has to lay his Cheltenham hoodoo: his form there since the 2011-12 season is 34000U.
Houblon Des Obeaux, a dual Ascot winner, has scored at Cheltenham over hurdles but was beaten by Rocky Creek in the Reynoldstown last February. This is only the third run since for Rocky Creek.
He was talked of for the Gold Cup after his recent second in the Hennessy (Houblon behind him again). He must win this to have any chance in March. In his favour today is the pace and the 5lb he gets from Harry Topper.
What pace? Well, as if he wasn’t already a tearaway, they’ve fitted The Giant Bolster will hood and visors, potentially a lethal combination which could see him halfway up Cleeve Hill before they can stop him. But the ground probably will.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: This should go to Rocky Creek who, unlike so many from Ditcheat, is unexposed at eight years old, having had only one senior race since his novice season.
2.50 Leopardstown Chase This used to be a reliable guide to Cheltenham and Aintree, with such as Last Suspect, Carvills Hill and Time For A Run among the winners.
But only Grand National third Seabass (2012) of any merit has taken this in recent years. In fact, success today stamps the winner a loser for life!
Since 2005, Marcus Du Berlais (lost all subsequent 23 starts), Point Barrow (19), Rare Bob (16), Schindlers Hunt (10), What A Native (nine), Anothercoppercoast (seven) and last year’s winner, Farrells Fancy (two), have not won another race to date. That’s 86 losing bets if you were fooled into following them to the (very) bitter end.
The six-year-old Talbot Road was described by Arthur Moore as his ‘great white hope.’ for the top chases. He’s had only two tries and – beaten at odds on the last day – may just may need a bit more time, as the winners of this race are usually experienced horses aged nine and 10 (the last eight), with at least seven starts over fences.
But Talbot Road is said to be ‘a different horse’ going anti-clockwise, and has been seen to be jumping left-handed on the right-handers, Punchestown and Fairyhbouse.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: King Vuvuzela, his dam a half-sister to Grand National winner Comply Or Die, has had a lot of experience for his age (nine chases) and came good here at Leopardstown over Christmas: 8.8 on BETDAQ as I write.
Trainer Paul Nolan knows all about a whole bunch of these runners through his other nominee, Sweeney Tunes. Talbot Road (I took 8.4) is inexperienced but the left-handed track plays to his strengths.
3.00 Cheltenham Another race that has found new stars. Wichita Lineman (2007), Bobs Worth (2011) and At Fishers Cross (2012) all went on to score at Cheltenham.
Rathvinden and Red Sherlock lock horns but Willie Mullins runners have not paid for a stag night in their forays to England this winter. Another trial just to watch.
3.15 Doncaster (Great Yorkshire Chase) An older plodder (even a Grand National winner like Auroras Encore) won’t win this on today’s ground, unless there’s heavy rain (not forecast). The stats agree: there has been none successful over the age of nine since way back.
At 4.4 Unioniste, 9.6 bar one on BETDAQ this morning, the race seems simplified by asking one question: can anything stop a horse of his class?
CD-winning front-runner Night Of Milan will make a bold fist of it. On form, he should again beat Baile Anrai, Kruzhlinin, Mart Lane and The Druid’s Nephew.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I can’t see a trainer of Paul Nicholls calibre losing both big chances today – Unioniste and Rocky Creek – so I’ve backed both. But Night In Milan is big in this at 13.0 as I write, if the rain stays away in quantity.
3.25 Leopardstown The stats tell us that this race is an absolute no-go area for horses carrying more than 10st 10lb. None has won it and none has finished in the first two for five years out of the last six.
Equally there have been no winners over the age of nine in the decade. Seven out of nine had raced in the last month, most of them placed.
Listed placed twice on the Flat, Leah Clare (a massive 19.5 this morning) was second in this race in 2012. The stable has had a couple of winners recently, and Ben Dalton takes off a valuable 3lb.
The progressive Sea Light will love the fast pace but is up 17lb for a Leopardstown double in December and Sullane Chief(has been hammered 34lb by the Irish handicapper for his back-to-back wins.
By comparison, Quick Jack was hardly punished (upped 6lb) by the English handicapper for landing a gamble at Cheltenham. Sullane Chief’s success has come at 20f and he was unsighted behind Quick Jack at Listowel in September.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It’s 10.5 bar one (Quick Jack) on BETDAQ as I write (including 19.5 Leah Clare) in a magnificent 109% list in the orange for a race which had a staggering Total SP of 159% a year ago. For BETDAQ backers, it’s case of ‘I’m All Right, Jack!’
3.35 Cheltenham (Cleeve Hurdle) and 2.05 Doncaster The Cleeve Hurdle usually tells us what will happen in the World Hurdle in March, witness winners like Blazing Bailey (3rd at the Festival), Inglis Drever (won), Big Buck’s (won), Grands Crus (2nd) and Big Buck’s again (won again).
And here’s Big Buck’s at the age of 11, looking for a third win in this but nearly 14 months on from his sole success since the Festivals of 2012.
I can’t find a 10-year-old, never mind one aged 11, to have won the Cleeve in the recent past, and I can find only one of double-figure age that’s won the World Hurdle since 1972.
Can Big Buck’s bounce back yet again? His World rivals are all here today, barring the optimistically named Ruler Of The World and Annie Power, who is at Doncaster (2.05) instead? That’s where I came in.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 each)
BET 3.3pts win SHANGANI, and 1.25pts win and place ULCK DU LIN (1.50 Cheltenham)
BET 11.5pts win (nap) ROCKY CREEK (2.25 Cheltenham)
BET 2.7pts win TALBOT ROAD and 2.5pts win KING VUVUZELA (2.50 Leopardstown)
BET 6pts win UNIONISTE, and 1.6pts win and place NIGHT IN MILAN (3.15 Doncaster)
BET 6.6pts win QUICK JACK, and 1pt win and place LEAH CLAIRE (3.25 Leopardstown)
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