O’BRIEN RULES THE WORLD TODAY: It was win number 22 for Winx this morning in her third consecutive Cox Plate. Now all eyes are on the number 26 for Aidan O’Brien, talking Group-1s and inspiring next year’s Classics, four strong in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on the brink of beating the world record.
DAQMAN’S BIG-VALUE OUTSIDERS: Meanwhile it’s the time of year for chancing your arm on outsiders, as Cheltenham starts and the Flat finishes. So Daqman finds bets at 12.0, 20.0, 27.0 and 45.0 for a Saturday flutter. Daqman leads Pricewise 83-21, some 319 points clear to a single-unit stake.
PENTAGON AND GABR POST A ONE-TWO
3.25 Doncaster (Racing Post Trophy) Does this contain Group-1 winner number 26 of the year for Aidan O’Brien? If so, which one? He has a huge pool of sharks and, just when you think it’s safe to go in on his favourite, something else has the teeth on the day.
In fact, O’Brien has lost more of these Trophys than he’s won in the last eight seasons. His best results per race since 2009 show 12112422.
Seemingly heading a Ballydoyle school of four in the race he’s taken with, notably, Camelot and High Chapparal are Saxon Warrior and The Pentagon, who is a Galileo.
Ignoring the Ballydoyle ballyhoo for a moment, Saxon Warrior’s Beresford win was in a very small field and the runner-up was seen as ‘still very green’ by racereaders.
At Leopardstown earlier, The Pentagon beat a colt (Theobald) who finished well adrift in the Dewhurst but Pentagon has had a three-month holiday to do some growing up.
The benchmark Theobald was much further behind Seahenge in a Dewhurst of jostling and barging, with Seahenge one of the worst victims.
But he is by the same sire as Caravaggio and Lady Aurelia so this mile may stretch him. And the fourth O’Brien runner, Coat of Arms, looks a 200-1 pacemaker.
I’ll side with The Pentagon at a huge 9.8 on BETDAQ. He’s had the break. He’s the Galileo. He’s nicely drawn in gate 4 (the last six winners have all been from stalls 3 to 8).
On deeper ground I’d consider Verbal Dexterity but the O’Brien colt he beat in the National Stakes was earlier on a par with Coat of Arms.
It’s Roaring Lion for the Brits but, again, the O’Brien colt he beat in the Royal Lodge is seemingly not high in the Ballydoyle echelon.
Andrea Atzeni, who rides Chilean, has played musical saddles to great effect, climbing aboard the last four winners for FOUR different stables!
But the surprise packet could be Gabr, whom I reported earlier in the week as having a scintillating home prep, and I took the 27.0 in the BETDAQ win orange and 5.7 for a place.
4.00 Doncaster Last year’s winner from stall 17, Sole d’Leau, 3lb lower this time around, is drawn on the other side, in 5, where he has another front-runner Just Glamorous (in 2) to keep up the pace. Yet he’s 20.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
The first two in yesterday’s sprint on Town Moor came out of gates 13 beat 14, so I’m also going to try Exceed The Limit, with the right stable for this kind of action and, though raised in grade, is massively down in the weight he has to carry, and is still unexposed. Huge at 45.0 offers this morning.
BELL LINED UP TO GO ONE BETTER
2.15 Newbury (St Simon Stakes) This goes to a three-year-old or a four-year-old low drawn (stalls 2 to 6 are six out of seven), and Mountain Bell, from 10, just failed to get up win it last season.
He comes from stall 7 this time but hasn’t been seen since, rested ‘with pelvic issues’. Elvis Presley, he ain’t, but is sure to have been well rehearsed for this revenge bid at 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.55 Newbury Ger Lyons hasn’t had a winner on the Flat in England this year but has boosted his team on the level and the Pivotal filly, Moonlight Bay, will love the mud.
The colt she beat at Naas afterwards ran well in a Group 3 and the step up to 7f should suit. Jamie Spencer booked and a break-even win-and-place 6.0 on BETDAQ if only placed.
VICONTE VALUE FIRST RUN BACK
2.00 Cheltenham Philip Hobbs tries to farm this, with form figures in the race (2008 to 2015) of 13011110. Can you trust Lamb or Cod to do the business, 10 years old and pulled up on the last day?
Hobbs insists that that was down to bad ground, and the horse is so well that he’s changed his plans and he runs today instead of a veterans’ chase at Aintree.
The stable won it with a 10-year-old in 2008, first run back after the summer break. Lamb or Cod is 23.0 in the BETDAQ orange as I write.
Singlefarmpayment travels so well in his races, you seem sure to get a good run from the morning favourite.
Robinsfirth and Viconte De Noyer look a formidable team for Colin Tizzard. It was the Viconte (BETDAQ 12.5) who scored first time back here at Cheltenham in November last year after the break.
3.10 Cheltenham Sizing Platinum was second in this last year and is 8lb higher after broking a losing run of 12 races on the last day.
It was a grade-lower event at Newton Abbot but the handicapper was not happy about his 14-lengths romp (made all) so hiked him a stone.
Le Prezien was hot at this time last year and touted for the big time but, only five, couldn’t cope with Cheltenham and Punchestown. He has been growing up at Ditcheat during his long break, hence the strong support this morning.
3.45 Cheltenham Seven out of eight winners of this come from below 11st, and Stick To The Plan (9.0 on BETDAQ) is better than the bare form and could poach this for the Skeltons.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Cheltenham (each to win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.25pts win and place VICONTE DE NOYER
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.2pts win and place LAMB OR COD
2.15 Newbury (win 30)
BET 2.75pts win and place MOUNTAIN BELL
3.10 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) LE PREZIEN
3.25 Doncaster (each to win 30)
BET 3.5pts win and place THE PENTAGON
BET 1pt win and place GABR
3.45 Cheltenham (to win 30)
BET 3.75pts win and place STICK TO THE PLAN
3.55 Newbury (win 30)
BET 6pts win and place MOONLIGHT BAY
4.00 Doncaster (each to win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.5pts win and place SOLE D’LEAU
BULL’S-EYE BET 1pt win and place EXCEED THE LIMIT
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