DOES DAQMAN KNOW? BETDAQ BACKERS THINK HE DOES: You would have had two winners from four bets yesterday if you’d followed Daqman to another profitable afternoon. Both scored on the opening card of the Cheltenham three-day meeting which continues today and Sunday. Does He Know gave him three wins from five bets so far against Pricewise for an early 3-1 lead in their feature-race tipping. He has quickly opened a gap of 63.75 points between them to level stakes.
✔️ WON 11-8 DOES HE KNOW
✔️ WON 6-5 PROTEKTORAT
STAR START AS DAQMAN DISSECTS THE CHELTENHAM CARD: Danver Star (2.04 on BETDAQ this morning) is an early play for Daqman’s Fortune Cookies at Punchestown. Then it goes like this:
🔹 ONE COAT FINISH AND IT’S NOT RED
🔹 BERMEO FOR FORM-MAN FARRELLY
🔹 CHALK THIS ONE UP ON THE SLATE
🔹 WATCH MRS MILNER ON BLIND SIDE!
ONE COAT FINISH AND IT’S NOT RED
⭕ 12.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle) Paul Nicholls has produced winners of this trial to finish in the first six of the Triumph Hurdle proper (426F153) but only Defi Du Seuil (in 2016) actually triumphed.
Nicholls saddles Hell Red, a recruit from Guillaume Macaire’s Pau academy, a winner first time for him at Chepstow last month and with a Grade-1 Christmas target there.
But today’s Grade 2 is a helluva task against Gordon’ Elliott’s Duffle Coat (BETDAQ 3.65), who improves race by race. First thoughts of a Listed and the Punchestown route would quickly change if the grey takes to Cheltenham.
David Pipe is not a trainer I can follow but he currently has a 25% strike-rate and his ex-German Adagio was a seven lengths and 17 winner at Warwick in a race for which Alan King had the favourite, named after his old boss, Duke Of Condicote.
BERMEO FOR FORM-MAN FARRELLY
⭕ 1.05 Cheltenham David Pipe has won this four times in eight years including twice with What A Moment.
The 10-year-old’s moment seems to have passed. He’s struggled in the last three years, and needs to bounce back for a change of jockey, 19lb drop in the handicap and two breathing ops.
With Colin Tizzard finding some form – three winners in four days – the National Hunt Chase third, Lamanver Pippin, could be the one.
Kilfilum Cross, the Kim Muir runner-up in March, has had a recent run back but there’s a horse in form from a stable in form getting 34lb from him!
That’s Johnny Farrelly’s Bermeo off the minimum 10st, despite a recent course-and-distance success on this old course and at this level, and with the yard 1011 since Monday. I took 11.0 on theBETDAQ Betting Exchange.
⭕ 1.40 Cheltenham If the Tizzards have not started with Lamanver Pippin, they will ‘expect’ Eldorado Allen here. I’m hoping something of theirs does well early on to boost my confidence in my big-race bet (2.15).
Fusil Raffles has impressed on good ground but Gumball (BETDAQ 8.7) jumped really well on the soft at Uttoxeter and Quel Destin loves it heavy, so keep ears and eyes open about the going.
All are giving weight to Henry De Bromhead’s Zarkareva (14.5), who travelled well and winged the last when scoring at Punchestown.
These novice races decide the future, and deciding which is the one for the future is not for betting purposes, but I’m happy with two good jumpers at 8.7 and 13.0.
CHALK THIS ONE UP ON THE SLATE
⭕ 2.15 Cheltenham(Autumn Gold Cup) You can usually cut a handicap in half and decide: is there a star at the top of the weights and is there a ‘hidden horse’ lurking at the bottom?
This one is so deep, you can carry on dissecting all night (as I did) and eventually admit the handicapper’s talent by saying almost every horse has a positive and a negative.
On tough championship tracks like Cheltenham, course form can give you an advantage. In this race today, that only increases the headache, because there are eight course winners, and all bar one in the entire field have scored over the distance.
Paul Nicholls has the favourite but the favourite ‘never’ wins this and who would want to take his price in such a field!
Arch-rival Nicky Henderson has a Graded winner, Mister Fisher, but it’s not Nicky’s race: he’s won it only once, so the Fisher would have to be a Fondmort; closely handicapped with Al Dancer and any rain is against him.
I reasoned in Thursday’s preview why Saint Sonnet and Aso would have to be exceptional to overcome their age, and how rare would be a Happy Diva double.
The half-dozen fancied in the market at the top of the weights are carrying more on their backs than 12 of the last 14 winners! I’ll just have one from that section run for me: Slate House.
1️⃣ Slate House won first time out at the November meeting here last season and was challenging to take the lead in todays’ race when he fell two out. His stable has just found it’s form. BETDAQ 15.0
2️⃣ Brelan d’As, Saint Sonnet Neck runner-up last year, and now 3lb better off with Happy Diva, Brelan d’As has raced only once since, always targeting revenge. BETDAQ 28.0.
Stablemate and one of the favourites, Saint Sonnet, has also had this as his target and has ‘summered very well, while Brelan d’As is a good-each way bet’. That’s the most you’ll get out of Paul Nicholls.
3️⃣ Spiritofthegames Just run out of it over CD by the very smart Cepage before sixth in the Plate at the festival. Now 9lb better with the winner, Simply The Betts, and 6lb better with runner-up Happy Diva.
Has won four times in a row after a break, and the stable is on cloud nine after Protektorat romped home yesterday (straight into my Fortune Cookies). BETDAQ 22.0
4️⃣ Siruh Du Lac pulled up in this a year ago but was leading two out when he fell at the festival in the Plate won by Simply The Betts. Has had wind surgery and moved to David Pipe.
Better off at the weights and jockey Tom Scudamore will be on his mettle after winning the cross-country yesterday. BETDAQ 15.5. I’ll put just three in the mix, as has Pricewise.
WATCH MRS MILNER ON BLIND SIDE!
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham On The Blind Side is well treated on his best form but is inconsistent, whereas Dandy Dan is reliable but dropping back to hurdles over a shorter trip than his Durham National second doesn’t appeal to me.
The one they’ve backed is last year’s winner, Golan Fortune, but this late switch to a visor is offputting.
Five-year-olds have won three times in five years and Mrs Milner surprised Paul Nolan how well she came up the hill at Galway, after ‘travelling’ all the way. I took 6.7 on BETDAQ.
⭕ 3.25 Cheltenham I will have to see how Son Of Camas goes before I back him, with two lots of wind surgery sandwiching his 50-1 no-chance Ballymore run.
Captain Tom Cat has landed a good-ground hat-trick and rain could materially alter the surfaces, and deny his chances, by the time of this race.
Whatsupwithyou was in his wing-mirrors over CD three weeks ago, with the good ground against him. A soft terrain and pull in the weights could turn the tables.
⭕ 3.55 Cheltenham Colours Of My Life is highly regarded by Alan King and is one to follow. That means a tickle at BETDAQ 12.0, or we might be missing out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.15 Punchestown
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win DARVER STAR
12.30 Cheltenham (win 20, nap)
BET 7.5pts win DUFFLE COAT
1.05 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 2pts win BERMEO
1.40 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win GUMBALL
BET 1.5pts win ZARKAREVA
2.15 Cheltenham (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win SLATE HOUSE
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.5pts win SPIRITOFTHEGAMES
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.85pts win BRELAN D’AS
2.50 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win MRS MILNER
3.25 Cheltenham (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win WHATSUPWITHYOU
3.55 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 1.8pts win COLOURS OF MY LIFE
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