8.6 AND 11.0 BULL’S-EYE BETDAQ HITS: Three winners out of six for the Irish yesterday with a party hardly big enough for a minibus! Rachael Blackmore and Gin On Lime performed an astonishing feat before the cameras to get up off the ground and win. Now Paul Nicholls attempts a magic trick in the big chase with Lalor, a horse he’s never raced before. It’s a handicap for bull’s-eye bets at 8.6 and 11.0.
TOMORROW: Greatwood day at Cheltenham plus the Morgiana at Punchestown
CARAMELISED GOOD VALUE
⭕ 12.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial) A kingmaker contest but the ‘good thing’ Magistrato hasn’t had the rain trainer Paul Nicholls says he needs.
He made all on good ground at Chepstow last month (beating Rocky Man) but the former David Cottin gelding faces a stronger test today, with Knight Salute having turned over a Nicky Henderson odds-on shot at Kempton and, along with Mister Allegro from a lower level, going for a hat-trick today.
Magistrato ran second to another David Cottin buy, Porticello, in France but that one was probably lucky to win a Listed at Wetherby when Addosh unseated, going easily.
Caramelised had beaten a novicey Addosh at Stratford and, when Addosh got her revenge at Market Rasen, she was receiving 15lb. Hooded today, Caramelised is ‘too big’ on BETDAQ as the danger to Magistrato.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 8.2 Caramelised
PASTOR NEEDS TO BE LUCKY
⭕ 1.40 Cheltenham (2m novices chase) With previous winners a reminder of past glories – Al Ferof, Dodging Bullets and Le Prezien – for Paul Nicholls, I shall spin a coin for Mick Pastor, who will like the ground.
He has beaten six-times-second Sebastopol 20 lengths and has a 5lb pull with his Wincanton conqueror, Captain Tom Cat.
Third Time Lucki has the advantage of winning at Cheltenham already, jumping well and easily holding subsequent Navan scorer, Buddy Rich, but he’s too short for a plunge in a novice chase.
BETDAQ value 6.4 Mick Pastor
BAG DAQ 11.0 PROTEKTORAT
⭕ 2.15 Cheltenham (Autumn Gold Cup) STATS: Young horses are preferred on good ground; older, experienced horses (8 and 9) on soft; with key factors that they’ve run at least twice at Cheltenham before and raced already this autumn.
Black marks against last year’s winner, Coole Cody, because the last winner of double-figure age was back in 1975, and it’s 27 years since a horse did the double.
Aso is also theoretically ‘past it;’ Belargus and Funky Dady (the only Irish runner) go out because claimers don’t ride this winner. Let’s take a closer look at:
1: Protektorat Six runs at Cheltenham, including winning a novice chase at this meeting last year. Always in the first two after a break.
Very highly regarded but not the easiest to train and has had more wind surgery this year.
High in the weights for his acey-deucey form last season (1221) but he still looks underrated on what I know of him and may not have to improve to win.
2 : Lalor Paul Nicholls may be a genius but is he a member of the magic circle and can pull a rabbit out of the hat, when it’s first run for the stable, not scored for three years; winning form 2m on the soft?
What stakes his claim are back–to-back places here in January 2020 at grade-3 level on the soft for Kayley Woollacott; pulled up twice and changed stables since.
But new trainer Nicholls says he’s targeted this race and got him ‘very fit,’ and disagrees that ‘soft’ is needed. Abracadabra.
3: Al Dancer Same scenario as Lalor: changed stables to try to revitalise him. Fifth in the Arkle, won as soon as stepped up to 2m 5f.
Third in this last year and now 9lb better off with the winner, he has won five consecutive after a break. Trainer and jockey both in good form.
Midnight Shadow Cheltenham form from 2019, hurdles and fences, 2m 4f only: 1102, the second being in the December Gold Cup (4lb lower now). Stable having a poor season but this is their flagship.
Zanza Haldon Gold Cup third is something to build on but failed to complete the last twice over Cheltenham fences.
Caribean Boy has failed to deliver so far. The magic tricks required by Paul Nicholls today are well known to Nicky Henderson but the difference is that Nicky doesn’t show you the cards in advance.
Paint The Dream has come a long way – recently 19lb for two impressive wins – since running two stone behind Protektorat at this Cheltenham meeting a year ago but that doesn’t look far enough.
BETDAQ value 8.6 Lalor, 11.0 Protektorat
PROSCHEMA TO BEST MILLSY
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham A 3m Listed handicap hurdle with most of the winners (8 out of 10) coming from 10st 11lb or lower.
But Proschema, who won here in April and won again at Aintree hiked 11lb, has had two runs back in Graded company and will be hard to beat on this ground despite 11st 11lb. Stablemate Shannon Bridge needs soft ground.
Ballymillsy, an easy winner on his return, had fallen at the last when still in front of Dragon Bones at Worcester in the Spring.
Dragon Bones, better off at the weights here, was well ahead of the rest when runner-up to a horse marked down for the Albert Barrlett, after a 3m novice-hurdle victory here at Cheltenham in October.
The third horse, Onagatheringstom, is better off at the weights but has a lot of ground to make up.
Sporting John, who has scored four times after a break, won the Scilly Isles at Sandown in February but lost his way after, and has had a wind op. His stablemate, Valentino Dancer, tries a long trip for the first time.
BETDAQ value 4.2 Proschema
HE CAN REPEAT GOOD EFFORT
⭕ 3.05 Lingfield Good Effort has been asked to win top-class contests in Deauville (he did) and America (he didn’t) this year and seems to have the class to win this back to back. He landed a gamble a year ago.
Harry’s Bar, a CD winner here for James Fanshawe, is sent over by Ado McGuinness, who is currently out of form (0-18).
Betdaq value 3.8 Good Effort
JONNY COMES TO THE PARTY
⭕ 3.25 Cheltenham Tony Martin followers only lent their money yesterday when Belgoprince ran on up the hill. Good Time Jonny is a different proposition: progressive and already landed the money at Gowran Park the last day.
Another one on the upgrade is Mackelduff though his last-day strike at Ascot was in very poor time.
The sometime rebel Gowel Road runs two different ways: if he’s on halfway good behaviour, he could yet be a force at this level. Both he and Benson have a lot to do at the weights today.
A stone and more beneath them in the handicap, Unexpected Party has his chance to prove that his easy win at Wetherby was worth the 11lb the handicapper thinks it was. He will lack nothing in stamina.
BETDAQ value 6.6 Good Time Jonny
FELIX HAS HOLLIE AS DRIVER
⭕ 3.40 Lingfield (Churchill Stakes) Dubai Warrior tries to win this for a second year – as did Master The World (2017-18) – but he’s moved to David Loughnane from John Gosden, who goes for a hat-trick in the race today with Harrovian.
Dubai Warrior’s win here last year was at the expense of Sinjaari (3.5 lengths behind at levels). In September, Harrovian beat Sinjaari by a head after a sustained duel at Doncaster (levels).
The Warrior seems to come out best but has a tough task to beat Pyledriver, whose last run was victory in the Group-1 Coronation Cup in June.
However, Pyledriver hasn’t been seen since, carries a penalty and drops back in trip for stable out of form.
Fox Tal is consistent without winning but I’ll take a chance on 4.0 shot Felix, who ran well in the Winter Derby here and wins first time out and is 1012 for Hollie Doyle.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.30 Cheltenham (win 12)
BET 1.6pts win CARAMELISED
BET 1pt MAGISTRATO (stakes saver)
1.40 Cheltenham (win 10)
BET 1.75pts win MICK PASTOR
2.15 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 6.5pts win LALOR
BET 5pts win PROTEKTORAT
2.50 Cheltenham (win 12, nap)
BET 4pts win PROSCHEMA
3.05 Lingfield (win 12)
BET 4pts win GOOD EFFORT
3.25 Cheltenham (win 11)
BET 2pts win GOOD TIME JONNY
3.40 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win FELIX
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