19.5 AND 26.0 NATIONAL GAMBLES: Daqman tilts at the layers in the Welsh Grand National today with 19.5 and 26.0 offers on BETDAQ, his first choice having uninspiring form figures of 3P0000 but as short as 12-1 with bookmakers. He challenges Pricewise in three races today: 1.45 and 2.20 Chepstow, and the 3.10 at Kempton Park.
THREE WINNERS UP OUT OF SIX: Daqman landed three winners and three seconds out of six races yesterday. The winners were Iron Butterfly (WON 15-8), Barye (WON 1-1) and Le Prezien (WON 1-4).
SPRING RETURNS TO A WINNING WEIGHT
1.45 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National) Philip Hobbs knows all about the form for this race. His Woodford County was third in both the Eider Chase and the Midlands National, and stablemate Bertie Boru ran well in the London National.
Today he saddles both but I’ve also had my eye on his third runner, Return Spring, for some time. This stayer who loves the mud has dropped 10lb from a high mark in the NH Chase at Cheltenham (4m) and the Sandown Gold Cup.
Hobbs has been in fantastic form this autumn and winter, picking up major prizes with Garde La Victoire, Royal Regatta, Sausalito Sunrise, So Fine, Sternrubin and Village Vic, revealing an extremely clever placer of his horses, as if we didn’t know.
Sausalito Sunrise won the Murphy at Cheltenham, beating Upswing (second), Cogry (fourth) and Shotgun Paddy in fifth. So he knows all about the market leaders, too.
For most racereaders, Cogry’s performance after a long absence since the Scottish National in April, was seen as the perfect stepping-stone to the Welsh version.
Cogry’s stablemate, front-runner Tour Des Champs, has appeared in Graded races at the Cheltenham Festival and came back with a win a month or so ago. He’ll be lucky to get all his own way today but could set it up for the stable.
Benvolio seems sure to harrass him, if he can bounce back. He was beaten only a short-head by Emperor’s Choice in this race last year, and is 7lb better off, though he had first-time blinkers then, and hasn’t been the same since.
However, Paul Nicholls seemed to be firing again yesterday and the pieces are gradually coming back together., so he could be in the picture at 23.0 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Bob Ford returned to form recently but rarely puts two races together. Stablemate Red Devil Lads, however, is consistent and improved 29lb in 2015; he’s had a run back after a long absence, and the handicapper may not yet be in charge; he’s only seven and lightly raced.
Seven consecutive winners from 1980 were seven-year-olds. No winner since 1994 has been older than nine, and for the last nine years none older than eight.
Since Earth Summit won in 1997, only two winners in the intervening years have been saddled with more than 11st, and every pound will tell this afternoon in the conditions.
I choose from Upswing, Benvolio, Cogry, and the Hobbs trio, Bertie Boru, Return Spring and Woodford County but I also fancy a big outsider.
‘Bertie’ is a difficult ride, Woodford County disappointed in this race last year, Upswing may have a pound or two too much, and Benvolio has to bounce back. So I’m returning to Spring.
My rank outsider is Fourofakind, who loves Chepstow and deep ground; though 11, he has had only 17 starts in his life. He’s been out of the first four only once, still standing, since his career got off to a late start in November 2010.
Gold Cup winning rider Nico De Boinville switches from Red Devils Lad, sweating down to 10st-odd for Fourofakind, trained by Harry Whittington, whose yard is firing in chasers at a rate of 33%.
ORDER-IN (with BETDAQ offers taken):
1 Return Spring (19.5)
2 Cogry (9.8)
3 Fourofakind (26.0)
4 Upswing
5 Benvolio
PUNT ON PONT AS A FUTURE CHAMPION
2.20 Chepstow (Future Champions Finale Hurdle) Philip Hobbs has a smart juvenile here in Jaboltiski but he has to leap six grades from his class-4 Exeter success. Borak also won in heavy on the last day but seems firmly entrenched in class 4, as does Major Mac.
Adrien Du Pont, a very-soft-ground winner in France, might have been two out of two in England but just failed to get up on the last day.
He seems to be one of those to have escaped the ‘Ditcheat lurgy’ and the Nicholls yard was back in decent shape yesterday with a treble.
Coo Star Sivola seemed to enjoy the sounder surface when runner-up, unfancied at 25-1, in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in November, having been unplaced twice on very soft ground in France. He was easy to back at 4.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.55 Chepstow Cogry won this race in the mud last year when only five, and a sudden step up in trip for the youngest runner this year, Ozzy Thomas, could see him involved. I took 9.8 on BETDAQ.
Courtown Oscar, four out of five, has been thumped a stone by the handicapper for winning easily at Wetherby on the last day.
Subtle Grey is a big beast who could try to jump them silly under Barry Geraghty but trainer Don McCain hasn’t taken a decent contest since April, 2014. Jennys Surprise is likely to keep the grey company.
3.25 Chepstow Venetia Williams has won this twice in the last three seasons on heavy ground, and Otago Trail responded to a step up to today’s trip by winning well up Haldon Hill at Exeter in the mud.
Quincy des Pictons has, himself, managed two wins in this race on heavy, and has no doubt been laid out for it again, with a top claimer improving his chances.
Another veterzan, Rouge Et Blanc, has never won this high in the handicap, even allowing for his claim, and the lightly raced Fourth Act is the likely threat to Otago Trail.
WARRIOR WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED
2.35 Kempton (Lanzarote Hurdle) Older horses (over seven) have won this only once since 1988, and the market followed the stats this morning, with Bivouac and Ibis Du Rheu vying for favouritism.
When Bivouac was hot for the Adonis Hurdle here at Kempton 11 months ago, he was beaten 14 lengths, and he slid 13lb in the ratings. But plans to send him chasing were shelved when he returned to winning form, and recovered a large slice of that lost rating, when scoring at Huntingdon in November, enjoying the step up in trip.
Bivouac is raced over still further here, and it’s also a step up for Idris Du Rheu, half-brother to ‘Saphir’, after a good second as a four-year-old at Newbury in November.
The biggest step of all is for Dr Richard Newland’s Westren Warrior from class-4 novice to Listed . He gets weight all round today – a stone from Bivouac – but the main attraction is how he skipped through the mud on the last day, forging 30 lengths clear.
You’ve seen that all before? Yes, but it could be argued that that his earlier second to Singlefarmpayment, giving weight 7lb, was an even better performance, since that one followed up as an easy winner of a class 2 at Cheltenham on the first day of the new year.
Yala Enki, on the other hand, failed to go on from another seemingly convincing novice-hurdle romp. Dell Arca was only fifth in this race last year, and Gevrey Chambertin has never won off this a high a mark.
3.10 Kempton Shangani (7.2 on BETDAQ this morning) hasn’t won a race since March 2014 but would have been placed on all four starts at Kempton had he not slipped up there on the last day.
It’s a year or so since Grandads Horse was in winning form, and you also have to wind the clock back for Kruzhlinin’s peak: he improved 15lb as a young chaser but was then prepared for the 2014 Grand National, which seemed to take a lot out of him. Promising run back over hurdles 11 months ago but not seen since.
Harrys Farewell is on a high mark after scoring in November and Poole Master, a winner at Aintree off today’s rating a year or so ago, has shown nothing in two runs back.
So the danger to Shangani could be Le Reve (6.6 offers), despite his top weight. He was in terrific form in better class at this time a year ago, including third off this mark in the Sandown Gold Cup.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ offers unless stated, but bankers are fixed stake and settled at SP)
TON-UP BETS (staked to win 100) 5.4pts win and place RETURN SPRING and 4pts win and place FOUROFAKIND, plus (Bull’s-Eye Bet to win 50) 5.5pts win COGRY (all 1.45 Chepstow)
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) ADRIEN DU PONT (2.20 Chepstow)
BET 6.25pts win WESTREN WARRIOR (2.35 Kempton)
BET 3.5pts win and place OZZY THOMAS (2.55 Chepstow)
BET 5pts win LE REVE and 4.5pts win SHANGANI (3.10 Kempton)
BET 6pts win FOURTH ACT and 4pts (stakes saver) OTAGO TRAIL (3.25 Chepstow)
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