BOLD BID FOR JACKPOT HITS Huge fields and variable ground conditions has Daqman fishing for jackpot returns from his Fortune Cookies and Pot Of Gold Bets, which include punts that could pick up 144, 210, even 620 points profit from individual big-race bets.
IT’S THE BIG-ODDS CHALLENGE He is on the trail of a similar venture at Ascot, Newmarket and York by Pricewise of the Racing Post. Daqman currently leads his challenge to Pricewise 54-25. Who will win today? Daqman’s nap is at Chester.
COME ON MY SON! 144-POINT PUNT
4.35 Newmarket (July Cup) With 10 horses officially rated within a 6lb range – that’s around two lengths at this 6f – you have to try to whittle them down with stats and facts.
I started doing an ABC Guide in midweek but my computer packed up and I’m on a borrowed machine. It’s worse than musical saddles in the Shergar Cup.
Had I written the ABC, I would have said that most horses successful in this were Group-1 winners already.
A high draw has scored only twice in the decade. The maximum winning age is five, and 9 winners out of 10 come from the first five in the SP market.
If you have two or more good reasons to delete a runner that’s better than one: Arod, Don’t Touch, Jungle Cat, Limato and Magical Memory and Washington DC are non-Group-1 winners with a high draw.
After knocking out the old boys, and also deleting Danzeno, Eastern Impact, Goken, Suedois and Waady as Group 3 or lower, we are left with:
AIR FORCE BLUE What Aidan O’Brien did with Stravinsky and Mozart, he could do with this Guineas flop.
But, if we look back now at the two-year-old form that had him hailed a champion, those he beat in the big juvenile contests – Washington DC, Herald The Dawn and Massaat – have all been overtaken by improvers this season.
PROFITABLE What is most impressive about Profitable’s hat-trick of Palace House Stakes, Temple Stakes and Kings Stand is that he’s gone through the grades – Group 3, 2 then 1 – and improved 10lb.
The negatives are his high draw today and the close proximity of Cotai Glory (beaten a neck) in the Kings Stand on soft ground he didn’t like.
QUIET REFLECTION Won the Group-1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot but again we’re talking about soft ground.
The runner-up, Kachy, was her equal (because giving her weight) and had been behind Profitable in the Temple Stakes.
TWILIGHT SON At this time last year, it was Twilight Son the big improver, scooting up the ratings 23lb and second in the championship at Ascot in October to Muhaarar, who had been nearly four lengths better than Limato on firm ground for the Commonwealth Cup, with Profitable even further back.
Twilight Son was beaten by Magical Memory on his seasonal debut but looked much more himself when winning the Diamond Jubilee.
VERDICT: I have 20pts each on Profitable (11.5 on BETDAQ this morning wins 210 points) and Cotai Glory (a huge 32.0 wins 620 points), as Fortune Cookies, but I must back Twilight Son in the front rank of the market, with three horses having completed the Diamond Jubilee and July Cup double in the last six years.
The watered track and forecast showers should swing it for Twilight Son.
My personal pricing-up has Twilight Son at 6.0 favourite, which would require 20pts to win 100 in a Ton-Up bet. He’s 8.2, so the yield at the same stake for a Pot Of Gold Bet becomes 144 points.
I’m laying for a place, partly because of their high draw, both Limato, who has not cracked it at the highest level, and Magical Memory, who is 4-1 down on Twilight Son in their meetings.
BIRCHWOOD TO FLY ROUND CHESTER
2.45 Ascot I’m taking the low draw, where I find Secretinthepark (25.0) won a race like this at Ascot in these conditions last summer off a similar mark.
3.00 York One Word More has to be caught fresh (not run since May when he was placed over CD) but is very hard to win with.
I prefer the 12.5 BETDAQ offers about King’s Pavilion for Mark Johnston and P J Macdonald, who teamed up with Yorkidding, a 9-1 winner on this course yesterday.
3.05 Chester Birchwood is a hidden horse, heavily disguised. Failure in Group/Grade 1 reduced his standing after a bright start to his juvenile career, and his reappearance run can be wiped off the record because of heavy ground.
First-time visor, down in trip with the number-one stall at Chester looks an ideal situation to relight his fire. Napped at 6.2.
4.15 York First-time visor could also make a difference to t he 9.0 offer Arthenus, who can turn over defeat by Revolutionist at Ascot.
But, now that Andrew Balding is back in form, Elbereth could continue where he left off in a Nottingham Listed on the first day of June. Huge on BETDAQ at 24.0.
5.10 Newmarket (Bunbury Cup) Flash Fire, 16.0 best offers as I write, did me a big favour in the Victoria Cup over CD in today’s conditions and has run only once since, over a trip too short on soft ground.
I think he should be 10-1 so I’m staking 5pts at 16.0 as I would to win 50, and getting a bonus of 50% and a return of 75. That’s BETDAQ value!
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.45 Ascot
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points) 2pts win and place SECRETINTHEPARK (2.45 Ascot)
3.00 York
BET (to win 30) 2.6pts win and place KING’S PAVILION
3.05 Chester
BET 6pts win BIRCHWOOD (nap)
4.15 York
BET (to win 30) 3.75pts win ARTHENUS, and 1.3pts win and place ELBERETH
4.35 Newmarket
POT-OF-GOLD BET: 20pts win TWILIGHT SON at 8.2 to win 144 points, added to Fortune Cookies PROFITABLE and COTAI GLORY, plus Place Lays to lose 10pts Limato and Magical Memory
5.10 Newmarket
POT OF GOLD BET: 5pts win and place at 16.0 FLASH FIRE
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble King’s Pavilion (3.00 York), Birchwood (3.05 Chester) and Flash Fire (5.10 Newmarket)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
