HAGGAS FOR BIG IRISH HANDICAP: Daqman relies on trainer William Haggas to weather Saturday difficulties of soft ground at Sandown and firm at Chester, though that may change before racing! He’s also taking the Haggas raider to win the Irish Cambridgeshire, though one home outsider at almost 40-1 catches the eye.
* Daqman’s advice: Keep your Daq up and follow the markets (see 1.50 Sandown)
SAND OFFERS ALL AT SEA
⭕ 1.50 Sandown William Haggas, with five winners from his last 10 starters, is currently 121110211122 with a dozen runners that have started favourite.
One Haggas horse that has me hiding behind the bicycle shed is Headmaster, whose response to being made favourite at Goodwood was last of 16 at 85-40.
Must have had excuses and Galeron lost the plot in similar measure, 21st of 21 in the International at Ascot last month.
Winner on heavy at Newbury, Ellaria Sand plummets in class here from the Fred Darling Stakes and the German 1,000 Guineas.
In the conditions, and with Oisin Murphy to do the steering, she may be the one of these three to bounce back.
All Kodi Lion’s success has come on good ground. Woroodd is lightly raced and open to improvement but we can only guess how she will perform on soft. The market may help.
THE MARKET: Here are the offers at 10am, adding up to only 103% total percentage, after four withdrawals because of the ground. Keep track of play on BETDAQ through to the ‘off’.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.3 Headmaster, 4.4 Kodi Lion, 8.5 Worooddd, 12 Ellaria Sand, 19 Galeron
KERDOS CAN SCORE AGAIN
⭕ 2.05 Beverley Bullet Clive Cox is back. He landed a hat-trick (2021-23) in this race, all three well backed, but didn’t have a runner last year.
His 2023 winner, Kerdos, has another shot at the bullet, and looks hard to stop, as a Group-2 winner in soft ground in 2024 and beaten two lengths in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot this year.
The same stable has achieved an identical 104 rating for Redorange but, though consistent, a class 3 at Chester is his best result.
Adrestia beat a big field at Royal Ascot but is up almost a stone and is neck and neck with Kerdos’ stablemate Redorange on revised ratings since Brazen Bolt bested them both at Goodwood.
Add First Instinct (Haggas) to those I’ve mentioned and you have four horses separated by a couple of pounds in the ratings but three of them are three-year-olds and the stats warn you that only Kerdos of that age group has won it. BETDAQ 10.0 taken.
GO ON! BACK ALLONSEY
⭕ 2.40 Chester Stakes While it’s soft at Sandown, the crazy English weather has horses withdrawn from Chester because the ground is firm: in this one, connections of Tashkhan and Too Soon didn’t hang around for the forecast rain.
Unsuited by the firm ground at York, Alsakib would like that rain to arrive but stayed in the line-up this morning.
The Tabletalk stable will be glad of the small field, as the dominance of stalls 1, 2, 3 (with 6-8 winners) won’t be so difficult to overcome from gate 7.
The 2024 Melrose winner, Tabletalk has spent this year in Group races (placed in three of them).
Ralph Beckett, saddling Listed scorer Allonsey (out of 2) today, has taken this twice recently and I took 7.5 this morning as an early play, in case the race changes again.
WEIGHT AND GOING ‘EDGE’
⭕ 4.37 Curragh (Irish Cambridgeshire) Back to hot Haggas with most of the big Irish stables that farm this conspicuous by their absence: no Jessica Harrington, no Ger Lyons; no O’Briens from Tipperary (though there is one from Kildare).
That leaves Godwinson (Ryan Moore for Haggas) facing Dermot Weld and Gerard Keane, who have won it before.
Keane has the Genuine Article for recent form and cut in the ground, though that one finished a long way behind last year.
Jagged Edge slammed a subsequent Goodwood winner in his maiden on the soft, then ran amiss here at the Curragh in May. If able to resume in form, he could be thrown in, claimed off and drawn low. BETDAQ 39.0.
Godwinson landed a double for William Haggas (and for Daqman’s Tips) in the Lincoln Handicap and the Seaton Delaval at Newcastle.
‘He needs a strong pace and a drop of rain, so things are in his favour here. I’ve never thought him well handicapped, even in the Lincoln, but he deserves this ask, now on easier surfaces.’
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.50 Sandown (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 5pts win and place ELLARIA SAND
BET 4pts to win 12 HEADMASTER
2.05 Beverley (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 5pts win KERDOS
2.40 Chester (win 20)
BET 3pts win ALLONSEY
4.37 Curragh (win-50 bull’s-eye nap)
BET 12pts win GODWINSON
BET 1.5pts win JAGGED EDGE
(plus 3pts place at 5.5)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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