DAQMAN’S NAP IS BACK TO FORM: Daqman, who landed three winners and 20 points on Wednesday, sneaked a one-point victory on the day yesterday, thanks to his nap, Nigiri (WON 11-8). Today he does battle with firm ground and rain! Only the Curragh going is certain: soft.
IRISH OAKS THEN KING GEORGE: Today, big sprints plus the Irish Oaks, previewed in the week. Next Saturday: we hope for the big three-year-olds’ showdown in the King George. Read more of Daqman’s previews.
POSTILEO: LET IT RAIN AND RAIN
⭕ 2.25 Newbury (2m handicap) Sweet William, half-brother to Hurricane Lane out of a 2m-winning mare, looks ready-made for this, though we have no evidence for his aptitude if it gets soft.
Only ‘a couple of showers’ were forecast on the firm surface this morning, but what about the afternoon?
Sweet William was raised only 3lb for effortless winner at Doncaster after debut second, trying to give 20lb to Saint George, who then failed by half a length to take a Group 3 at the July Meeting.
Nathanael Greene is dead level with Sweet William on the ratings. First-time blinkers could help him settle and finish the race sharper; if he’d had them on at Newcastle, he might have won the Northumberland Plate.
Though Zinc White and Novel Legend, one-two in the Chester Plate on soft ground, are rehandicapped to dead-heat, Zinc White drifted to 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning while the ground remained firm.
But this is a race usually won by an out-and-out older stayer – none under the age of five – so maybe the Chester Plate of 2021 is a better guide!
The lightly-raced Postileo, second that day, was back to winning form in May of this year and not disgraced at Royal Ascot, though the top of the ground was against him. Needs rain and that’s what most of the country was getting this morning.
Daqman’s verdict: 6.2 Nathanael Greene for me and, in anticipation of afternoon rain, 15.0 Postileo. Wait until nearer the ‘off’ before determining the confidence in the market for Sweet William, who needs it to stay firm.
AUSSIE GIRL COULD MAKE ALL
⭕ 2.35 Curragh (Scurry Handicap, 6.5f) GOING changed to SOFT.
It’s a day of two super sprints, one by that name at Newbury and this one at the Curragh; they have in common domination by the high draw.
Six out of eight Scurrys have gone to stalls 10 to 17, with Edward Lynam taking two of the last three.
He runs Heavenly Power, twice a scorer in big fields on the soft here but one of nine out of the handicap today.
Last year’s runner-up, Big Gossey, is 9lb higher in the handicap and vulnerable to the third horse home, No More Porter, though that one seems to be struggling with different aids, cheekpieces and tongue-tie, mainly over a mile. He hasn’t won for nearly two years.
LAYS LOGIC: The same search among the aids applies to the favourite, Albasheer, who has dropped down the handicap with Colin Keane booked but he’s drawn 7 and hasn’t won since his maiden, always a bad sign.
Dandyville is 5lb better for a nose with Coumshingaun from the first of the month here but didn’t want the rain.
Daqman’s verdict: I took a fancy to an in-form three-year-old: the front-running Aussie Girl has improved all year and is bred to stay on and on; after all, this is nearly 7f and will feel like further on the soft. I took 10.0 on BETDAQ.
FAVOURITE LANDS A PLUM DRAW
⭕ 3.35 Newbury (Super Sprint, 5f) Daqman preview in Thursday column.
Layers got no relief when the draw was announced; the bookies’ favourite, Royal Relief, has stall 18, prompting punters to push him clear in the market.
They have swerved Coventry Stakes sixth Bobsleigh (despite his stall 16), and Juniper Berries, Queen Mary fourth when Royal Relief was second, is hardly in a gin-and-tonic stall 4.
She and Heed The Call (stall 1) are unlikely scorers from the winningmost weight area; but Son Of Corballis (stall 13) has a chance, along with Beenham (Oisin Murphy booked) and stablemate Crooked Crown (Saffie Osborne).
Betdaq Betting Exchange 2.5 Relief Rally, 15 Son Of Corballis, 20 Beenham
OAKS 1-2 BUT WHICH WAY ROUND
⭕ 3.45 Curragh (Irish Oaks): Daqman Preview: see Wednesday
With one or two exceptions which will clash in the King George, home Classic form has been overtaken and FORTUNE COOKIE Savethelastdance may have a fight on her hands today.
She was a doubtful stayer when she lined up for the Epsom Oaks, notwithstanding her Cheshire Oaks romp in a sub-standard field, and she was outrun by Soul Sister, coming at her in the final furlong.
If there’s one in today’s Irish Oaks that has the ability to tackle her late on, it’s her stable-companion, Warm Heart.
Ribblesdale winners have a great record in this race and she holds Bluestocking and Lumiere Rock on that form.
Ryan Moore presumably had the choice between the two daughters of Galileo and seemingly was pleased to finish in front of Soul Sister (only third) in Sunday’s Grand Prix at Longchamp.
Soul Sister, taking on the colts, didn’t get the greatest of rides from Kieran Shoemark. But she and Moore on Irish Derby runner-up, Adelaide River, were well held by Feed The Flame, who had backpedalled in the French Derby as Ace Impact surged clear.
Comhra is on the same rating as Warm Heart but, for me, she has run out of excuses (interference; allergy; short of room) and has three more black marks against her.
She hasn’t won since breaking her maiden, always a bad sign, and seems to be going backwards in cheekpieces; her SPs this year of 16-1, 18-1, 22-1 and 150-1 suggest she has little stable confidence behind her.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newbury (win 12)
BET 1.5pts win OVIEDO
2.25 Newbury (win 20)
BET 4pts win NATHANAEL GREENE
BET 1.5pts win POSTILEO
2.35 Curragh (win 50 bull’s-eye bet, nap)
BET 5pts win and 3pts place saver AUSSIE GIRL
3.00 Newbury (win 30)
BET 4pts win LEZOO
3.35 Newbury (win 50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 3.5pts win SON OF CORBALLIS
BET 2.5pts win BEENHAM
BET 4pts win (stakes saver) ROYAL RELIEF
3.45 Curragh (FORTUNE COOKIE and win 30)
BET 20pts win SAVETHELAST DANCE
BET 6pts win WARM HEART
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