DAQMAN IN A 100-POINT HIT ON THE OAKS WINNER AT 8-1: Daqman yesterday landed the one-two in the Oaks from his first three. His number-one call, Anapurna (WON 8-1), made him more than 100 points with a bull’s-eye bet on the big Classic and a double with the opening winner of the meeting, Pintatubo (WON 1-1). He comes into Derby Day with these records:
11 supernaps up out of 12
Daqman 25, Pricewise 12
Oaks winner Anapurna (WON 8-1)
IT’S DERBY DAY AND BIG FISH ARE JUMPING UP TO 66.0: Daqman takes you through more Derby stats and facts to add to Wednesday’s ABC Guide, plus the meeting’s top trainers and jockeys and quirks of the draw. His bets include offers taken at 6.4, 7.0, 7.5, 12., 18.0 and 66.0 under these headlines:
🔹DOYLE LEADS IN THE LINE OF DUTY
🔹DRAGONET: BIG FISH IN A BIG POND
🔹7.0 DON OFFER I COULDN’T REFUSE
🔹I CAN SEE HER TANKING UP THE RAIL
🔹CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR MUTHMIR
DOYLE LEADS IN THE LINE OF DUTY
DERBY DAY FACTS AND FIGURES
Top trainers (10 years; this Epsom meeting only) Roger Varian moves up after a double yesterday.
Aidan O’Brien 13, Mark Johnston 8, John Gosden 8, Sir Michael Stoute 6, Roger Varian 6, Charlie Appleby 5, Andrew Balding 5, Mick Channon 4, Richard Hannon 3, Ralph Beckett 3, Richard Fahey 3, David Simcock 3, Sylvester Kirk 3, Gary Moore 2, Sir Mark Prescott 3, Saeed bin Suroor 3, Stuart Williams 3, Roger Charlton 2, Karl Burke 2, David Elsworth 2, Paul Midgley 2, Clive Cox 2.
Jockeys James Doyle, who rides Line Of Duty in the Derby, takes the lead after a double yesterday.
James Doyle 6, Frankie Dettori 5, Ryan Moore 5, Silvestre de Sousa 5, Andrea Atzeni 4, Oisin Murphy 4, Adam Kirby 4.
Going GOOD, good to firm in places, watered (sun and cloud).
Warning: Five races yesterday were run in slow time and the turf was loose in the dip and at the bottom of the hill, still rain softened (and the watering ends up downhill).
Derby Draw Since starting stalls came in (1967), no colt has won from gate 2 (Telecaster) and only three have come from the one stall (Line Of Duty).
Stalls 7, 8, 9, 10 have won six out of the last nine: Anthony Van Dyck, Broome, Humanitarian, Norway.
Stamina Eight out of the last nine Derby winners were by sires whose progeny get 10f to 11.2f. Anthony Van Dyck, Bangkok, Broome, Circus Maximus, Japan, Line Of Duty, Norway, Sir Dragonet, Sovereign, Telecaster.
Trial winners Broome (Ballysax Stakes and Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial), Sir Dragonet (Chester Vase), Telecaster (Dante Stakes), Bangkok (Sandown Classic Trial), Anthony Van Dyck (Lingfield Derby Trial).
Class Of the stamina group, Circus Maximus, Norway and Sovereign have not won a Group race. It is essential to have done so, say the stats (see horse-by-horse details in Wednesday’s ABC Guide).
DRAGONET: BIG FISH IN A BIG POND
4.30 Epsom (the Derby Stakes) I’ve got a good one for you! That’s a head lad from one of the top yards in the good old bad old days. He had warned me that ‘the boss’ won his races at home, overtraining a lot of his horses, getting ‘underneath them’.
But each year, the best of his loyal staff ‘kept one back’, diverted his attention from something special that needed time.
I was reminded of that when Aidan O’Brien admitted that one of the stable’s Classic generation had been ignored this year, had got under the radar, probably in Aidan’s case entirely due to his campaigning so many expensive others as two-year-olds and lacking expectation of this one.
The colt hidden beneath his ‘embarrassment of riches’, Sir Dragonet, has since emerged on to the radar big time.. a knight in shining armour That’s a round-table reference I made in the heading of the ABC Guide on Wednesday.
A bit obvious. A bit redtop. In truth, a ‘dragonet’ is a fish, ‘colourful slow-moving’ aquarium fish commonly called the ‘mandarin fish’. Sir Dragonet became a big fish for Aidan, and for me, when he scooted up in the Chester Vase.
We were reminded yesterday what can happen to an easy Chester winner, when Mehdaayih went down, only seventh in the Oaks.
1 Sir Dragonet however ticks all the boxes, a big, galloping Camelot colt, dam half-sister to an Oaks winner, related to Galileo and Sea The Stars. And the only stick the 200 experts can find to beat him with is his light career; he’s short on experience.
Again we are reminded of yesterday when Anapurna leapt forward mentally and physically, again after two runs two wins this year, and precious little else, her Listed win at Lingfield impressing in a manner similar to Sir Dragonet, but his was in a major trial.
They can be deceptive when they beat nothing well, but he’s clearly done enough at home since to warrant supplementing. I understand they really put him through his paces.
2 Broome is a laid-back type, lazy at his work but has done everything asked of him on the track, winning two trials. Will love the better ground, which should dry out completely in today’s sunshine. I liked his instant turn of foot, given the office – just a slap – when scoring on the last day.
3 Madhmoon Ran on well out of the dip in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, having beaten Broome easily as a juvenile but that was before Broome grew up.
Over the years, the Guineas is the best Epsom trial. He could foil a Ballydoyle 1-2-3, and it would be no surprise if he was good enough.There’s just a worry about his stamina for the final climb.
Anthony Van Dyck Another who beat nothing well in his trial but doesn’t appear to have the brilliance of Sir Dragonet and Broome. Ran with the best as a juvenile but always behind them: Quorto, Too Darn Hot.. and Line Of Duty.
Line Of Duty needs first-time cheekpieces to help him bounce back from a dismal day in the Dante, and has done best with ease in the surface.
Telecaster, Bangkok Telecaster resisted the challenge of subsequent Irish Guineas runner-up, Too Darn Hot, in the Dante and was green when beaten earlier by Bangkok. Both have looked journeyman fighters rather than dominating champions, but the Dante has recently been the best Derby guide.
VERDICT: The 20 points win Sir Dragonet as a Fortune Cookie would land me a 50 at morning BETDAQ offers, and I’ll take Broome at 7.5 to win 30.
7.0 DON OFFER I COULDN’T REFUSE
2.00 Epsom Victory Command and Nayef Road are the only ones to have won above class 4 in this class-2 race!
It’s first time over the trip for Victory Command, but stablemate Nayef Road – Ryan Moore booked – cruised up over it by five lengths and three at Newmarket before being outclassed in the Dante.
The BETDAQ orange was 5.9 the field this morning (potential improver Politicise heading the market) and I could have backed two but thought Le Don De Vie huge at 7.0, and I’ll make a place bet my saver.
My man in the long grass tells me that the same owners, with the same trainer, won this race two years ago, and that the Don has been laid out for this.
I CAN SEE HER TANKING UP THE RAIL
2.35 Epsom (Prince Elizabeth Stakes) Veracious has to improve 7lb to my reckoning in first-time tongue-tie, if she can turn around Newmarket form with Nyaleti. The handicapper says it’s 4lb. With Sir Michael Stoute the trainer, it could be nothing at all.
Akvavera is 2-3 going right-handed, and she hung right when making all here at Epsom in September. Behind Awesome Tank and Anna Nerium at Goodwood and not wanted at 36.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Four-time AW winner Contrive was also big, averaging around 17.5 for trainer Roger Varian and jockey Andrea Atzeni, who landed a double together yesterday.
I ended up thinking Awesome Tank (James Doyle up) was a decent offer at 6.4, as a Group 3 runner-up last term, and twice a Listed winner. She doesn’t have speed, she has stride and courage, and I can just see her battling up the rail.
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR MUTHMIR
3.45 Epsom (The Dash) Just one winning favourite in the decade, with winners at 50-1, 33-1, 25-1, 16-1, 12-1 and 11-1 (twice).
Extremes of the draw do best: stalls 1 and 2 (three wins), and on the other side 14, 15, 16, 17, 19 (six)
Duke Of Firenze (gate 19) seems to be better than ever at age 10 but his Epsom form is a turn-off at 0033000 and, under a 7lb penalty, he’s badly in now with Dark Shot and Copper Knight, who chased him home at York a week ago.
Just That Lord (18.0 offers in stall 5) is a course-and-distance winner here at Epsom in April, when he also beat Dark Shot but is better off today.
Caspian Prince, also 10 and drawn 10, has won this three times, helped by stalls 1, 14 and 17, but is being ignored in the betting at 28.0.
Muthmir (out of 16) is also a veteran at nine, 6lb lower than when scoring on firmish ground last June. Hathiq (in 18) comes to this after back-to-back success but 22lb higher all told.
VERDICT: Muthmir, touched 12.0, is hard to win but goes well fresh, is well in and has his conditions. Just That Lord is well weighted, too.
For a rank outsider, I’ll take Line Of Reason, lower down the handicap than when beaten last year; from a stable that has won this twice in four seasons.
What if Line Of Duty won the Derby (47.0 in the BETDAQ orange) and Line Of Reason (66.0 offers) won the Dash! You’d have a 3,215-1 double. So, whatever your fancies today, don’t forget your Daq Multiples!
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Epsom (win 50, win 10 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET 8pts win (nap) LE DON DE VIE
BET 5pts place LE DON DE VIE
2.35 Epsom (win 30)
BET 5.5pts win AWESOME TANK
BET 1.75pts win and place CONTRIVE
3.45 Epsom (win 30, win 30, win 100)
BET 2.75pts win MUTHMIR
BET 1.75pts win JUST THAT LORD
BET 1.5pts win LINE OF REASON
4.30 Epsom (win 30)
BET 4.5pts win BROOME
FORTUNE COOKIES
(20pts level stakes)
SIR DRAGONET
EPSOM DAQ MULTIPLES:
2 x 5pt win doubles
LE DON DE VIE (2.0)
with
BROOME
SIR DRAGONET (both 4.30)
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