O’BRIEN RECORD AFTER EMILY HEART-BREAK Drama in the Oaks yesterday as the favourite, Emily Upjohn, tripped at the start and had to come from a seemingly hopeless position to collar Tuesday but Aidan O’Brien’s filly got back up by a pixel to give her trainer his 41st British Classic, an all-time record. The favourite was in front just before and just after the line.
CAN HE NOW CAPTURE THE DERBY CROWN? Can today’s Blue Riband match the Oaks drama as O’Brien bids to turn over another Classic favourite, Desert Crown, and land his ninth Derby with Stone Age? Daqman, who had a 4-1 winner yesterday, and leads Pricewise 27-18, has these headlines:
🎩 CROWN FOR ROYAL CELEBRATION
🎩 LOW DRAW HAS APPROACHABILITY
🎩 POTAPOVA PRINCESS FOR A DAY
🎩 MEGALLAN TO INSPIRE FRANKIE
🎩 THEGREATESTSHOWMAN AT 22.0
TOMORROW: Another Derby: the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly
CROWN FOR ROYAL CELEBRATION
⭕ 4.30 Epsom (Cazoo Derby in memory of Lester Piggott) See Wednesday’s ABC Guide and Friday’s trial-race trends in the Daqman Archive.
DRAW: winners by stall last 12 years: 8, 7, 5, 10, 12, 8, 9, 14, 10, 7, 12, 1.
RATING: 108, 113, 121, 109, 119, 118, 110, 109, 117, 118, nil, 121
TRAINER: Aidan O’Brien 8, Sir Michael Stoute 5, Charlie Appleby 2. JOCKEY: Frankie Dettori 2, Ryan Moore 2, William Buick 1, Seamie Heffernan 1, Adam Kirby 1.
1️⃣ DESERT CROWN, a son of Nathaniel, made a procession of the Dante Stakes, being compared to Golden Horn in the same race before he won the Derby off 118; Desert Crown is officially 117.
Staying with ratings, Nathaniel and his best offspring, Enable, improved 23lb and 19lb respectively in their first two races as three-year-olds.
Stone Age has also won his two starts this year (after a not-notable two-year-old career) but his official progress as a three-year-old is just 6lb, according to the handicapper.
2️⃣ PIZ BADILE (named after the Shovel Peak mountain in the Alps) is ideally drawn in 7. Won the Ballysax with a gritty performance, but has always been expected to do better over a mile and a half.
Ironically he is by the Eclipse and International winner, Ulysses, like Desert Crown, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. The dam of Ulysses was Oaks winner, Light Shift.
3️⃣ STONE AGE Royal Patronage, Stone Age and Westover could be helped by their low stalls in 1, 4 and 2; the one stall won both the 10f and 12f races here yesterday.
After his Oaks win, Ryan Moore seems certain to go for the middle. I see Desert Crown down the stands side from gate 12, running his own race as he did at York, clear of any trouble and the notorious far-rail camber.
4️⃣ WESTOVER Frankel colt out of a Lear Fan mare, has gradually stepped up the ladder, the last day all out to win the Sandown Classic Trial, still looking green and can improve for Ralph Beckett.
Changingoftheguard, also a son of Galileo, stepped forward a stone from his maiden win in April to take the Chester Vase unchallenged from a previous easy winner.
But I can’t have a Classic winner in headgear; like Nahanni (holds Grand Alliance), he wears cheekpieces. Hooded are West Wind Blows and Hoo Ya Mal (holds Star of India and Sonny Liston).
Changingoftheguard, Star Of India and Grand Alliance all have very wide draws.
Walk of Stars looks Godolphin’s best; a Dubawi related down the dam’s side to Nathaniel and a suitable draw for him in 9.
Nations Pride has beaten nothing well, and his pedigree does not shout Derby winner. But he did win his trial by a wide margin and is drawn 5.
Royal Patronage had no answer to Desert Crown in the Dante and I can’t see him turning the form around. In fact, I can’t see anything else being crowned..
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 3.25 Desert Crown, 6 Stone Age, 12 Piz Badile, 28 Westover.
LOW DRAW HAS APPROACHABILITY
⭕ 2.00 Epsom With the far-rail camber shunned by the jockeys yesterday, and races run down the middle, the low draw had the edge and won over both 1m 2f (1 beat 3) and 1m 4f in the Oaks (1 beat 5).
This 10-furlong handicap should open opportunities for Blue Trail (out of gate 5), who is bred for the trip but has been kept to a mile so far, running well enough to place in the Esher Cup.
War Horse and Nolton Cross were first and third (placed second by the Stewards) in a lower-grade 10f handicap at Sandown.
War Horse is better off at the weights today with Nolton Cross, and Grenoble, who was fourth, running green, is in turn better now with War Horse but badly drawn in 15.
One possibility from stall 7 is Sharp Combo, who likes to front-run and was aimed much higher last year, including at the Chesham.
His stablemate Approachability (stall 6) has scored first time, won for the Johnstons from the front, and was runner-up giving 6lb to Grenoble in October.
Similarly One For The Gutter (out of 3) ran in the Royal Lodge behind today’s Derby contender, Royal Patronage, and is up in trip here for this drop into handicaps.
BETDAQ value 15 Approachability, 27 Oneforthegutter
POTAPOVA PRINCESS FOR A DAY
⭕ 2.35 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) There is some collateral form here. Roman Mist had the benefit of a run when narrowly holding on from Potapova at Kempton, with My Astra in third.
My Astra gave the form a significant boost when turning an Ayr Listed into a procession (though soft ground may have been a big help), scoring by 12 lengths from two Group-3 fillies and mares.
Handicappers Mrs Fitzherbert and Bashkirova were separated half a length at level weights in a Goodwood Listed in April.
The grey Technique has won only her maiden (on AW), always a bad sign. Beaten a head four times in eight races since, another bad sign.
Majestic Glory beat Wild Beauty for the Sweet Solera last August but was beaten by her this season when third in the Fred Darling. A hood is tried.
BETDAQ value 5 Potapova
MEGALLAN TO INSPIRE FRANKIE
⭕ 3.10 Epsom (Diomed Stakes) Megallan was far too big at 7.6 on the BETDAQ Exchange this morning for the greatest jockey showman, Frankie Dettori, who was biting his lip after a Dancing Brave finish on Emily Upjohn.
Megallan was just run out of it at this level in the Earl Of Sefton in April, the winner housed by the same stable as Modern News, whose overall record is 6-10.
Mutasaabeq, whose strike rate is 4-8, is the only player here with a Group-1 entry (Sussex Stakes). Very tight race so you need a price and a small stake.
THEGREATESTSHOWMAN AT 22.0
⭕ 3.45 Epsom (Dash) Extremes of the draw win this: the one stall three times plus one for gate 2; then all other success in the decade came from 13, 14, 16 and 17.
My fancy from the low numbers is Dusky Lord (from 3), who stormed down the Newmarket straight three weeks ago ridden by David Egan who won this race last year on Mokaatil, back for a repeat but needs to be claimed off this time around.
In the high numbers, Thegreatestshowman (gate 15), went close here at Epsom under an apprentice at the April meeting. The winner was none other than Mokaatil. Silvestre De Sousa takes over.
BETDAQ value 11 Dusky Lord, 22 Thegreatestshowman
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Epsom (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win APPROACHABILITY
BULL’S-EYE BET 2pts win ONEFORTHEGUTTER
SAVER: 2pts win BLUE TRAIL at BETDAQ 6.6.
2.35 Epsom (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win POTAPOVA
3.10 Epsom (win 30)
BET 5pts win MEGALLAN
3.45 Epsom (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win DUSKY LORD
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.4pts win THEGREATESTSHOWMAN
4.30 Epsom
FORTUNE COOKIES
BET 20pts win DESERT CROWN
BET 10pts win STONE AGE
SAVER: 4.5pts win PIZ BADILE
5.15 Epsom (win 20)
BET 5pts win MIDNIGHTS LEGACY
5.21 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 2pts win CEPHALUS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
